NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
The start of July means the NFL season is coming fast. Training camps start for rookies in three weeks, with veterans reporting about one week later. The NFL Hall of Fame Game begins in exactly one month, which signals the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.
The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the NFL East.
Jalen Hurts Over/Under 3,700.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Making narrative-based props bets is certainly a losing strategy, but identifying the public’s feel or knee-jerk reaction to a listed prop can actually be helpful information. Consider the general feeling on Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts.
In 2022, Hurts put forth an MVP-caliber season. He guided the Eagles to an 8-0 start, en route to a 14-3 regular season and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. He ranked first overall in fantasy points per game (25.6) and produced two 1,000-yard receivers in A.J. Brown (1,496) and DeVonta Smith (1,345 yards). He only played 15 games (shoulder sprain) but still threw for 3,701 yards. After such a productive season in his first year with Brown and Smith, wouldn’t we expect Hurts’ passing total to improve in 2023? Why is his passing yardage total actually less than last year, with even juice on both sides?
I needed to take a closer look.
The Eagles had a fantastic 2022 season but also enjoyed minimal regular-season resistance. They faced the second-easiest schedule per Vegas opposing projected win totals. They started the season with a perfect 8-0 record, facing only two teams with winning records, including a Dallas team led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush. Despite considerable negative game scripts, Jalen Hurts still managed to throw for 3,701 yards in just 15 games. However, when facing the better teams, the Eagles relied on the ground game, not Hurts’ passing ability. Using the FTN Data Splits Tool, we see the Hurts’ percentage difference in those seven games against teams that finished above .500.
In those seven games, Hurts experienced a:
- 9.8% drop in passing yards
- 8.69% drop in pass attempts
- 9.21% drop in pass completions
- 19.38% drop in passing touchdowns
- 23.45% drop in big play yardage
- 15.83% drop in successful pass plays
Taking this a step further, in Philadelphia’s seven games decided by one score or less, Hurts averaged just 224.7 passing yards per game. In the six games they won by 10 points or more, Hurts averaged 299.67 passing yards per game.
Philadelphia plays a much harder schedule this season, facing the AFC East (at New England, at New York Jets, Miami, Buffalo), road games at Kansas City and Seattle and an NFC Championship game rematch at home against San Francisco. Given Hurts’ results last season, should we project higher passing production against these teams?
While his over is very tempting, I’m taking the under on Hurts’ passing yardage and actually expect the juice to move to the under as we approach the season.
PICK: Jalen Hurts Under 3,700.5 Passing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
CeeDee Lamb Over/Under 1,075.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
The Dallas play-calling responsibilities have now switched to head coach Mike McCarthy, which should have little-to-no effect on CeeDee Lamb’s receiving production. The 24-year-old wideout enjoyed a breakout 2022 season, posting career-highs in targets (156), receptions (107), receiving yards (1,359) and touchdowns (9). Despite failing to eclipse 97 receiving yards for the first eight games, Lamb posted five games of 100-plus receiving yards between Week 10-17.
As play-caller, McCarthy’s Green Bay offenses were very successful. In those 13 seasons, the Packers finished outside the top 10 in DVOA only three times: 2006 (McCarthy’s first year), 2017 (Rodgers missed nine games) and 2012 (ranked 11th). As long as McCarthy has healthy weapons, his offenses have been very successful.
The reason Lamb’s receiving yardage prop is significantly below last year’s total is the addition of Brandin Cooks and the healthy return of Michael Gallup. Cooks turns 30 in September and saw a significant decline in his production last season. His 70 targets and 550 receiving yards were both career-low marks despite operating as Houston’s dominant WR1 for 10 games. Gallup has struggled to stay healthy over the past two seasons, posting just 39 receptions and 424 receiving yards in 14 games last season. Gallup should be fully recovered from a 2021 ACL tear but had two separate procedures on his right ankle and knee in February.
For Lamb to eclipse this mark, he only needs to average 63.3 receiving yards per game. He has easily hit that mark in each of the past two seasons. There’s a lot of variety on his prop, with Caesars carrying 1,150.5 yards and BetMGM posting 1,049.5 yards at -135. I’ll take the better juice on the slightly higher number at FanDuel, expecting another big season from the Dallas WR1. Using our FTN Bets Projections, we have Lamb for 1,211 receiving yards.
PICK: CeeDee Lamb Over 1075.5 Receiving Yards (-112, FanDuel)
Darren Waller Over/Under 750.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Count me as a pessimist on Darren Waller’s 2023 production with the Giants. In his seven NFL seasons, Waller has only exceeded 665 receiving yards on two occasions (2019, 2020). While he brings elite athleticism to a New York team desperate for playmakers, Waller has also missed 14 games over the past two seasons due to injuries.
While all reports have Waller serving as the clear primary passing-game target, the Giants have a schedule that is extremely challenging for opposing tight ends based on last year’s statistics. Waller has 10 games against teams that ranked inside the top 9 in tight end DVOA allowed last season. The Giants reside in the toughest division for tight ends, with their three opponents ranking inside the top 6 in positional DVOA. Using our FTN Fantasy Football Points Allowed data, we see that nine of the Giants’ games will be against teams that allowed fewer than 42 receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (NO, GB, WAS twice, DAL twice, BUF, LAR, SF).
While it’s difficult to project defensive efficiency from year to year, this data gives me enough concern to have skepticism on Waller’s production. The range for this prop varies greatly, from 699.5 (BetMGM) to this high mark of 750.5 (Caesars). The uncertainty on a muddled wide receiver depth chart has boosted Waller’s total, making for an attractive season-long under.
PICK: Darren Waller Under 750.5 Receiving Yards (-115, Caesars)
Dallas Goedert Over/Under 3.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110)
Just because I’m skeptical of Jalen Hurts’ passing yardage total does not mean I am fading all his pass-catchers. I am very bullish on Philadelphia tight end Dallas Goedert.
The 28-year-old tight end caught three touchdowns passes last season despite playing in only 11 full games. A Week 10 shoulder fracture removed Goedert from the Eagles offense when he was playing the best football of his five-year career. He actually caught a touchdown prior to leaving the Week 10 battle with Washington, his second consecutive game with a score. Goedert posted six TE1 performances in the first eight games, including the overall TE1 line in Week 9. He finished with 55 receptions, just one fewer than his 2021 career high in four more games.
Per our FTN Directional Tool, Goedert was one of only two Eagles pass-catchers to average double-digits in short passes to all three areas of the field. He was actually more efficient in that range than explosive second-year wideout DeVonta Smith, with a higher overall yards per catch average (12.8 to 12.7).
Goedert has also developed as a reliable red-zone target, posting the second-highest number of opportunities (10) in his career. The only other year he exceeded this number (2019, 11), he finished with five touchdowns.
The only real obstacle for this prop is health, and that’s rarely a reason to avoid betting a prop with identified value. With three receiving touchdowns in each of his first five NFL seasons, and four or more in three of those campaigns, this Goedert touchdown prop is one of my early favorites of the 2023 season.
PICK: Dallas Goedert Over 3.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110, BetMGM)
