Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
The month of July officially signals the NFL season is coming fast. Training camp will start for rookies in just one week, with veterans reporting shortly after. The NFL Hall of Fame Game kicks off in just three weeks, which means it’s the perfect time to identify some fantastic season-long props.
The earlier we can find an edge in the season-long market, the better our chance of getting fantastic value. As training camps progress, we receive more information on critical variables such as competition, usage and potential injuries. As we enter the final stagnant time of the NFL betting market, let’s take a closer look at my favorite season-long prop bets from the AFC North.
(All my lines are what I saw as I wrote it. They might not match the odds you find when you read the article.)
NFL Player Futures Futures for 2023: AFC North
Deshaun Watson 3,525.5 Passing Yards
I’m very high on this Cleveland Browns team. Deshaun Watson played poorly in his six games after serving his suspension but now enters 2023 with the benefit of a full offseason. Assuming full health, Watson should beat this number in a Cleveland offense with a strong group of offensive playmakers.
Watson eclipsed 3,800 yards in each of the three prior seasons before coming to Cleveland. Using our FTN Splits Tool, we see that Watson posted weekly averages that would easily beat this total.
For Watson to beat this number, he only needs to average 208 passing yards per game in 17 games. Even if Watson misses two games, he still only needs 236 passing yards per game. With Amari Cooper, David Njoku, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore, Watson has a variety of weapons to attack all three areas of the field. Throw in an offensive line that our Dan Fornek ranks as the fourth best in the NFL, and I love backing Watson to beat this line.
The Pick
Deshaun Watson Over 3,525.5 Passing Yards (-112, FanDuel Sportsbook)
Tyler Boyd 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns
This is a bet on a continuing trend in the Cincinnati offense. Tyler Boyd has seen a decrease in targets, receptions and receiving yards in each of the past three seasons. That has occurred despite Boyd actually playing one more game in each of those successive seasons. The number that has actually increased has been touchdown receptions. Boyd has caught 4, 5 and 6 touchdown receptions over that time, with an unsustainable touchdown every 9.83 receptions last year. Per our FTN Utilization Tool, we see that Boyd’s 13% target share ranked behind tight end Hayden Hurst and running back Joe Mixon.
While Hurst is now in Carolina, the Bengals brought in talented tight end Irv Smith. Ja’Marr Chase also missed five games last year due to a hip strain. I don’t see Boyd’s target share increase, and I don’t see him maintaining an unreasonable touchdown rate. I’m betting on Chase and Tee Higgins to get even a larger share of the receptions, with the Mixon contract restructuring securing my belief in Boyd’s touchdown under.
The Pick
Tyler Boyd Under 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Odell Beckham 559.5 Receiving Yards
Could this be the bounceback year for Odell Beckham?
From 2019 to 2021, Beckham struggled with consistency due to poor quarterback play. However, he still maintained his big-play ability, averaging almost 14 yards per catch over that time. He landed in the perfect scenario in 2021, signing with the Rams and quarterback Matthew Stafford after his release from the Browns. Beckham posted five touchdown catches in just eight games and started the Super Bowl with two receptions, 52 yards and a touchdown before tearing his ACL.
He now joins a Ravens offense that should see an increase in passing opportunities under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken. I have concerns with the health of wide receiver Rashod Bateman, and the only other wideout competition is rookie Zay Flowers. Beckham is 30 years old, but this number equates to just 32.9 yards per game. He just needs health, and his talent will get him past this number.
Using our FTN Splits Tool, it’s clear that a healthy Lamar Jackson changes this entire Baltimore offense. In the 57 games since his 2019 MVP season, the Ravens offense has posted over 10 PPG more with a healthy Jackson under center.
Jackson is healthy and now under a five-year, $260 million contract. Beckham’s talent should get him to at least 600 receiving yards, provided he stays healthy. I’m willing to take that chance.
The Pick
Odell Beckham Over 559.5 Receiving Yards (-112, BetMGM)
