2023 Fantasy Coaching & Coordinator Breakdown: New York Jets

(Welcome to the FTN Fantasy NFL Coaching & Coordinator Series. All summer, our Adam Pfeifer will be looking at every team’s coaching staff through a fantasy football lens, to see what means what and how a fantasy manager can capitalize on it. Today: The New York Jets.)

New York Jets Head Coach: Robert Saleh

Jets head coach since 2021

2023 will be Robert Saleh’s third season as the head coach of the Jets. After serving as the San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator 2017-2020, Saleh actually has not called defensive plays since joining the Jets. Expectations are obviously sky high for the Jets this season after emerging as one of the best defenses in the league last year, while the addition of a Hall of Fame quarterback certainly doesn’t hurt the quarterback-starved franchise. Saleh is still running the show but there are clearly going to be some monumental changes within the Jets offense entering the season.

Offensive Coordinator: Nathaniel Hackett

Broncos head coach 2022, Packers OC 2019-2021

Is anyone else having serious pained flashbacks? No? Just me then?

I, like many people, had high, high hopes for the Denver Broncos offense entering last season. They had plenty of talent, added Russell Wilson and hired an offensive-minded head coach. And a lot went wrong for the Broncos, but Hackett clearly didn’t get the job done. Denver’s 16.9 points per game were the fewest in the NFL this past season. They also ranked 30th in points (1.44), 28th in yards (27.6) and 29th in plays (5.6) per drive, while scoring points on just 28.6% of their total drives, the second-worst rate in the league. Penalties also hurt this offense, as they were called for more delay of game penalties than any other team in the league. It was a rough first (and only) season for Hackett, who wanted to run a West Coast-style offense that prioritizes intermediate passes over the middle of the field, as well as screen passes. Hackett didn’t design the appropriate offense for Wilson and his strengths, which was a huge reason why the Hall of Fame signal caller struggled last season.

The good news? Hackett has plenty of experience working alongside Aaron Rodgers.

Rodgers and Hackett

Yes, in case you have been living under a rock (or have been in, ahem, a darkness retreat), Aaron Rodgers is a member of the New York Jets. With Hackett calling the plays, we honestly might have a pretty good idea of what this offense will look like. Hackett was the offensive coordinator in Green Bay 2019-2021, working alongside Rodgers and head coach Matt LaFleur, who comes from the Kyle Shanhan system that features a West Coast passing scheme. The screen game has been a huge part of this Packers offense during Hackett’s tenure. In fact, from 2019 to 2021, Rodgers ranked second (85), second (76) and third (85) in screen pass attempts. And during that same span, 14% of Rodgers’ dropbacks have come on screen plays, one of the highest rates among all qualified signal callers. Of course, a lot of that was simply manufacturing touches for Davante Adams and Aaron Jones, who have been Green Bay’s clear lead pass-catchers over the last few seasons. But when Hackett was in Jacksonville, Blake Bortles ranked sixth (63), 11th (54) and 26th (34) in screen attempts during his three years alongside Hackett in Jacksonville. And keep in mind that Bortles also missed three games during his final season with Hackett.

This past season with the Jets, Garrett Wilson finished about 15th in the league in screen receptions with 13 but there is room for more manufactured targets for the emerging star. From 2019 to 2021, Davante Adams ranked third, third and third in screen receptions. And this is after a rookie season where Wilson already finished third among all wideouts in first-read targets with 133, trailing only Adams and Justin Jefferson. 

I was shocked to see such little usage of the play-action passing game from Hackett in Denver last year, especially considering Russell Wilson has been one of the best play-action passers in all of football. Among 41 qualified quarterbacks last season, Wilson ranked 31st in play-action dropback rate (21.3%), while Denver’s overall play-action rate of 22% was 25th in all of football. However, Rodgers ranked top-15 in play-action dropback during his three seasons alongside Hackett, though it is worth pointing out that LaFleur still called plays most of the time. So how much of that play-action usage was from LaFleur, Hackett or even Rodgers, who had a ton of freedom in that offense and will reportedly have similar freedom with the Jets. Well, if you look at Hackett’s other stops around the league, you certainly could make a case that he is not a huge fan of play-action. During his time as the offensive coordinator with the Jaguars, Bortles sported play-action dropback rates of 16.5%, 23.4% and 19.5%, which ranked 31st, 14th and 31st in the league during that span. While Rodgers may not finish top-10 among signal callers in play-action passing with the Jets, he’ll be much, much higher than Wilson was with the Broncos last season.

Over the last two seasons with Mike LaFleur calling plays, the Jets implemented more movement in their offense, which isn’t surprising considering LaFleur comes from the San Francisco scheme that lives off motion. In 2021, LaFleur’s first season with the team, the Jets used pre-snap motion 15% of the time, which was the 13th-highest rate in the NFL. It was certainly an uptick from the 2020 season where the Jets were outside of the top-20 in pre-snap motion. And this past season, the Jets used pre-snap motion a whopping 46% of the time, a top-five rate in football. With LaFleur gone and Hackett coming in, I’d expect that to drop quite a bit. The Broncos used pre-snap motion 30.2% of the time last year, which ranked 26th in football, while it wasn’t a huge part of Green Bay’s offenses in the past. 

Red Zone Offense

While LaFleur handled most of the play-calling duties in Green Bay, Hackett had a huge role with the red zone offense, drawing up a ton of the plays from that area of the field. And while the Broncos offense was a complete disaster last year, they were still league average in red zone conversion rate. During the 2017 season, Jacksonville converted 64% of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the second-highest rate in the league. And it isn’t new to see Hackett’s offenses score touchdowns on a high rate when in the red zone. During his three seasons in Green Bay, the Packers ranked second (67.8%), first (76.8%) and 18th (57.5%) in red zone touchdown conversion rate. And over that three-year span, Green Bay called pass 56% of the time in the red zone, the 10th-highest rate in football. So while Hackett has been alongside one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game, we have seen him elevate an offense that wasn’t exactly loaded with talent.

We’d often see Hackett put both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams on the field at the same time in Green Bay, but especially in the red zone. They’d run pop passes to Jones with Williams lead-blocking and while it is definitely something LaFleur likes, Hackett could use it a bit with the Jets, too. We even saw the Jets do it last season with Mike LaFleur (confused yet?) calling plays, as Breece Hall and Michael Carter would both be on the field in the red zone in Pony personnel. And this past season, Hackett and the Broncos used 21 personnel a healthy 15% of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the league. 

Multiple Running Backs?

Anyone that is expecting a huge year from Breece Hall doesn’t want to hear it, but it is legitimately possible that the Jets use multiple running backs this season, especially with Hall coming back from a torn ACL. Given Hackett’s history, it is extremely feasible that we see some sort of committee again in New York, at least until Hall is 100% healthy. During his three seasons with the Packers, Hackett relied on multiple running backs, whether it was Jones/Jamaal Williams or Jones/AJ Dillon. And in his two years with the Bills, Hackett used multiple running backs. In 2013, both Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller eclipsed the 200-carry mark, while Jackson and Anthony Dixon split work with Spiller dealing with injury. And of course, Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon were essentially splitting work right down the middle prior to Williams’ season-ending injury this past season in Denver. However, you could easily make the argument that Hall is by far the best running back Hackett has worked with (though Jones is fantastic, too), and was emerging as the clear lead running back before his injury last season. And the Jets don’t have the talent behind him like the Bills, Packers and Broncos had.

Pace

The Jets are the name of this franchise. It does not, in any way, describe their pace of play.

Expect New York to legitimately be one of the slowest-paced teams in the NFL this season. While Green Bay’s offenses have obviously been high-scoring and incredibly efficient since Hackett has been there, they have, however, been one of the slowest units in all of football. From 2019 to 2021, the Packers averaged 29.6 seconds per snap, easily the slowest pace in the league during that span. They are also sporting just a 3.6% no-huddle rate during that stretch, which is the fourth-lowest clip in football. The Packers have ranked no better than 18th in plays per game during those three seasons, as both Hackett and Rodgers are more methodical with their pace of play. 

Defensive Coordinator: Jeff Ulbrich

Jets DC since 2021

Ulbrich and the Jets defense had a brutal 2021 season, allowing a league-worst 2.67 points per drive, while opposing offenses scored points on 48.9% of drives, the highest rate in football. The secondary was a real issue, as the Jets allowed the seventh-most completions per game (23.6) and third-most yards per pass attempt (7.5). However, some key additions helped transform the Jets into one of the best defensive units in all of football, as they climbed to second in points (1.57), second in yards (27.3) and 10th in plays per drive allowed (5.9). Meanwhile, opponents scored points on just 32.3% of drives against the Jets, the fifth-best rate in the league. They played zone 61% of the time, a top-10 rate in football. And according to FTN Data, only the Bengals and Commanders surrendered a lower completion percentage in zone coverage than the Jets (64%). Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed became one of the top defensive back duos in the league, while Quinnen Williams is one of the best players in all of football. Because the Jets are so good on the boundaries, the middle of the field has been where you prefer to attack this defense. In 2022, New York coughed up the fourth-most targets (7.8), fifth-most receptions (5.5), fifth-most receiving yards (61.1) and seventh-most fantasy points per game (13.4) to opposing tight ends. 

Fantasy Football Takeaways

During almost Aaron Rodgers’ entire 18-year tenure in Green Bay, the Jets have been without a quarterback. No more. Rodgers was traded to New York this offseason, making for perhaps the most significant position upgrade in the history of football. Rodgers is coming off his worst season, ranking 22nd in fantasy points per dropback (0.43) and fantasy points per game (14.8). His 12 interceptions were his most in a season since 2008, while he finished as a top-12 fantasy signal caller just twice all year long. It is unlikely he’ll be that inefficient again this season but there also seems to be a limited ceiling with Rodgers. The Jets are going to be a slow, run-first team that relies on their defense more. This is an amazing move for the Jets and the offense, but Rodgers remains a high-end QB2 at best for fantasy.

If Breece Hall wasn’t working his way back from a torn ACL, he’d probably be a borderline first-round fantasy selection. He was well on his way to a spectacular rookie season, taking over the Jets backfield starting in Week 4. In Weeks 4-7, Hall averaged 16.25 touches, over 100 total yards and 19.2 PPR points per game, despite only playing 12 snaps before tearing his ACL in Week 7. Hall emerged into a 65-70% snap share running back. In Weeks 1-7, he ranked third in yards after contact per attempt (4.14), third in runs of 10-plus yards (14) and second in runs of 15-plus yards (8). With Rodgers taking the Jets offense to new heights, Hall has legitimate top-five upside, especially given how efficient he was in the passing game. Small sample but Hall ranked second among all running backs in yards per reception (11.5) and yards per route run (2.00). The question remains how much work will Hall see right out of the gate and how effective will he be?

Despite playing in the worst passing offense in football, Garrett Wilson put together a stellar rookie campaign, hauling in 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. Wilson finished top-seven among wideouts in both targets and end zone targets, while only Davante Adams and Justin Jefferson saw more first-read targets than the rookie sensation (133). Wilson’s production is even more impressive considering how bad the Jets quarterback play was, as just 61% of his total targets were deemed catchable, which resulted in a 56.5% catch rate, 25th worst in the league. Per FTN Fantasy’s Expected Fantasy Points tool, Wilson scored 57.6 fewer points than expected, the third-most among all wideouts. We already know Wilson is the premiere breakout candidate in football entering the season. And we know he is going to be really good. All that needs to be answered is: Exactly how good?

Rodgers moved from Green Bay to New York this offseason, but he didn’t make the trip by himself. Long time teammate Allen Lazard signed with the Jets and should immediately slide in as the team’s WR2 behind Wilson. Rodgers has been comfortable targeting Lazard in scoring position, as he ranked ninth in the league in end zone targets last season (9). With 20 end zone looks over the past two seasons, Lazard could easily post a second consecutive top-40 season.

Tight end Tyler Conklin was also quietly productive last season, ranking eighth among tight ends in targets (87), 15th in targets share (14.7%) and 16th in fantasy points. And while the addition of Rodgers is obviously great for Conklin, the Jets also have more depth at wide receiver after adding Lazard and Mecole Hardman this offseason. I’m sure Conklin will have a handful of useable fantasy weeks, but he remains a mid-range TE2 for now.