Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Underdog Fantasy has launched the largest best ball tournament in history, featuring 451,200 entries and $10 million in total prizes. A total of 30% of the prize pool will be split among three entries, including $2 million to first, $1 million to second and $1 million to the highest-scoring team in the regular season (Weeks 1-14). Drafts consist of 12-person lobbies with 18 rounds. That means you need to nail your picks. A starting lineup requires two starting running backs with the option to flex a third. Because best ball scoring does not require you to set your lineup, pass-catching backs with volatile scoring are worth targeting for potential spike weeks.
In this article, I am going to highlight some of my favorite satellite backs who fit every roster construction. You can track ADPs and rankings using the Underdog Tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
(ADP: 102.1, RB34)
The Bills entered the offseason looking to add a pass-catching back and agreed upon a deal to bring in J.D. McKissic to Buffalo. Unfortunately, the deal broke through when McKissic had a change of heart and re-signed with the Washington Commanders. As a result, the Bills turned to the 2022 NFL Draft and selected Georgia running back James Cook with the 63rd overall pick. Cook was one the most prolific receiving backs in the class, totaling 67 receptions for 730 yards and six touchdowns in four collegiate seasons. He averaged 10.9 yards per reception, with 26% of his opportunities coming from targets. When asked about Cook’s role in the offense, Bills general manager Brandon Beane said, “We see his best skill set as a sub back. But, I think he can handle carries, too, if we give him some more carries.”
Cook’s second-round draft capital suggests he will have an immediate path to opportunity on a Bills team with 199 targets up for grabs and 31.9% vacated targets. He may not be a three-down back like his older brother, Dalvin Cook, but he has plenty of upside tied to the third-highest-scoring offense in 2021. It also helps catching passes from Josh Allen, who has finished as the QB1 in back-to-back seasons while ranking top 8 in pass attempts, yards and touchdowns.
Rachaad White, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(126.6, RB41)
After letting former second-round pick Ronald Jones walk in free agency, the Buccaneers re-signed Leonard Fournette to a three-year, $21 million contract following Tom Brady‘s “unretirement.” With the lack of depth behind Fournette, they opted to bring back Gio Bernard and drafted Rachaad White in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft. White comps favorably to David Johnson, another Bruce Arians selection during his head coaching tenure at Arizona. In his final season at Arizona State, White rushed for exactly 1,000 yards and 15 touchdowns through 11 games. He led the class in receiving yards (456) and finished second in receptions (43). White ranked first in yards per route run, yards per snap and PFF receiving grade among all running backs. He also became the fifth NCAA running back to average 90+ rushing yards and 40+ receiving yards per game since 2013.
White should have a role in the passing game, with Chris Godwin still recovering from an ACL injury and Rob Gronkowski announcing his retirement from the league. Last season, the Buccaneers offense ranked first in pass attempts, deep-ball attempts, red-zone attempts, pace of play, air yards and passing touchdowns. White has a path to even more opportunity if Fournette suffers an injury. Over his five-year career, Fournette has appeared in 66 of his 81 possible games and is 27 years old.
Nyheim Hines, RB, Indianapolis Colts
(129.9, RB43)
Nyheim Hines had the best season of his career in Jonathan Taylor‘s rookie season, rushing 89 times for 380 yards and three touchdowns. As a receiver, he led the Colts in receptions with 63 grabs for 482 yards and four touchdowns. He signed a three-year, $18.6 million contract extension last offseason making him the highest-paid non-starting running back. After a top-20 finish in 2020, Hines finished as RB53 in 2021, playing second fiddle to Taylor’s RB1 overall finish.
He posted career-low marks as a receiver catching just 40 passes on 57 targets for 310 yards and one touchdown. Colts head coach Frank Reich acknowledged that the offense became more run-centric than he would have liked and wants to get Hines involved this season. He even stated, “If I was a fantasy owner, if I was going to be in a fantasy league, I think I’d pick Nyheim this year. I think I’d consider drafting Nyheim. I think it’s worth (considering) drafting him.”
Hines will benefit from playing alongside Matt Ryan, who led the position in percentage of targets thrown to running backs in 2021 (26.7%). Ryan targeted running backs 8.6 times per game last season.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB, Philadelphia Eagles
(133.1, RB45)
Kenneth Gainwell had a quiet rookie season, playing in a crowded four-person RBBC in Philly. He played on 35%+ of offensive snaps just five times last season, finishing as the overall RB42. Despite seeing limited playing time, Gainwell made the most of his opportunities. He finished sixth in yards per route run, catching 33 passes on 50 targets for 253 yards and a receiving touchdown. His best game of the season came in Week 18 when he saw a career-high 53% of offensive snaps, turning 16 touches into 87 yards and a rushing score.
Gainwell was also featured heavily in the Eagles NFC Wild Card loss playing in a negative game script. He’ll have a much easier path to opportunity this season after the Eagles let Jordan Howard walk in free agency. Howard led the backfield in red-zone touches but still had two fewer rushing touchdowns than Gainwell (5). Although Gainwell is second to Miles Sanders on the depth chart, he is a much better receiver and graded out better as a rusher.
Sanders has had trouble staying on the field, missing seven games in the past two seasons. He is in the final year of this contract this season and could lose work if he continues to struggle. Gainwell should still see a lot of work in an Eagles offense that ranked second in rushing attempts (550), first in rushing yards (2,715) and first in rushing touchdowns (25).
Michael Carter, RB, New York Jets
(146.3, RB48)
Michael Carter had a promising rookie campaign racking up 964 yards from scrimmage on 183 touches and four touchdowns. After a slow start to begin his career, Carter was RB13 from Weeks 4-10 averaging over 89 yards from scrimmage. Unfortunately, his hot streak ended after an ankle injury in Week 11 kept him out for the next three games.
He became a popular breakout candidate in the offseason as the favorite to lead the Jets backfield. However, Carter’s fantasy stock plummeted after the Jets selected Iowa State running back Breece Hall with the 36th pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. Although Carter will no longer be the primary back in New York, he showed enough as a rookie to maintain a role in the offense.
In the five seasons head coach Robert Saleh and offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur have spent together in San Francisco and New York, only one running back (Carlos Hyde) has eclipsed over 200 touches in a season. Carter looks to slot in as the receiving backup and will likely play on early downs to begin the season.
Late Round Options
- J.D. McKissic, RB, Commanders (174, RB56)
- Eno Benjamin, RB, Cardinals (202.6, RB62)
- Jerick McKinnon, RB, Chiefs (206.9, RB65)
- Chris Evans, RB, Bengals (212.0, RB68)
- Ameer Abdullah, RB, Raiders (214.9, RB76)
- Dontrell Hilliard, RB, Titans (215.5, RB80)
