Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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That means you need to nail your picks. Last season, late-round veteran wide receivers such as Hunter Renfrow (204 overall) proved to be league winners down the stretch smashing their ADP. Renfrow was drafted in the final rounds of drafts in 2021 and finished as a WR1 thanks to a breakout season. Today, I am going to highlight some of my favorite breakout wide receiver candidates who are available beyond the first 12 rounds. You can track ADPs and rankings using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100.
Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Buffalo Bills
(ADP: 146.6, WR67)
The Bills let veteran wide receivers Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders walk in free agency and have a combined 199 vacated targets and 31.9% target share. Early in the offseason, Isaiah McKenzie emerged as the favorite to start in the slot until the Bills signed former Jets wide receiver Jamison Crowder in free agency. However, once training camp began, it was clear McKenzie was running ahead of Crowder and was reportedly a go-to option for Josh Allen during practice. McKenzie’s preseason usage confirmed all priors after he rested with the starters the first game and 70% of the first team snaps in the second. Over the past three seasons, the Bills’ slot receiver has received at least 100 targets every season, averaging over seven targets per game since 2019. McKenzie has already flashed big-play upside, catching 11 passes on 12 targets for 125 yards and one touchdown in his lone game as a full-time starter. He’ll play a critical role in a Bills’ offense that ranked top-five in pass attempts last season and finished third in scoring.
Nico Collins, WR, Houston Texans
(149.8, WR68)
The Texans’ third-round pick out of Michigan in 2021, Nico Collins had a quiet rookie season, catching 33 passes for 446 yards and one touchdown. Despite playing on only 61.9% of offensive snaps, though, Collins commanded a 14.3% red zone target share and was second on the team in deep targets. Over 75% of his production came with Davis Mills under center, and Mills is locked in as the QB1 entering the 2022 season. Collins has had a strong training camp and is the clear No. 2 option after the Texans’ 2022 second-round pick John Metchie was diagnosed with leukemia earlier in the offseason. With Brandin Cooks resting, Collins displayed strong chemistry with Mills in his last preseason game, catching four passes on six targets for 48 yards and a touchdown. Offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton has big plans for the second-year receiver after coaching Collins at Michigan from 2017 to 2018.
KJ Hamler, WR, Denver Broncos
(156.6, WR70)
The Broncos’ 2020 second-round speedster out of Penn State, KJ Hamler, has missed 17 of 33 games in his first two seasons. He’s landed on the season-ending injured reserve list in back-to-back years, dealing with a multitude of injuries. Last season, Hamler appeared in just two and a half games before tearing his ACL and dislocating his hip on the same play in Week 3. After opening training camp on the PUP list, Hamler has been cleared for action and has a chance to suit up in the Broncos’ final preseason game. Originally slated as the No. 4 option in Denver, Hamler was elevated on the depth chart after Tim Patrick suffered a season-ending ACL tear. In the six games Hamler has logged at least 70% of offensive snaps, he’s garnered 5.83 targets from some of the league’s worst quarterback play under center. Clocking in at a 4.27-second 40-yard dash, Hamler profiled as the deep threat for Broncos’ new quarterback Russell Wilson. Since entering the league in 2012, Wilson leads the NFL in completions (298), yards (10,195), and touchdowns (298) on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield. Hamler reportedly wants to play the Tyler Lockett role for Wilson, who has been one of the league’s premier deep threats. Lockett is just one of three receivers to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in the last three seasons and has finished as the WR15 or better in four consecutive years.
Parris Campbell, WR, Indianapolis Colts
(178.4, WR78)
After a stellar senior season at Ohio State, the Colts selected Parris Campbell in the second round of the 2019 NFL Draft. In his final college season, Campbell led the Buckeyes in receptions (90), receiving yards (1,063) and receiving touchdowns (12). Unfortunately, he’s failed to make much of an impact in the NFL, appearing in just 15 games over his three seasons. He’s been plagued by injuries, never playing more than seven games in a season. Campbell appears healthy entering his fourth season and has been the No. 2 wide receiver throughout most of training camp. ESPN’s Mike Wells even named Campbell as one of his “offseason standouts.” He receives a significant upgrade at quarterback, transitioning from Carson Wentz to Matt Ryan, who is much more capable of making use of Campbell’s field-stretching ability. Campbell clocked in at a 4.31-second 40-yard dash at the combine, placing him in the 99th percentile in his class. There is little target competition behind alpha wide receiver Michael Pittman; at worst, Campbell will be the No. 3 option handling the slot role. General manager Chris Ballard said, “I’m not quitting on Parris Campbell,” and neither should you.
Zay Jones, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
(184.4, WR81)
Zay Jones got paid this offseason after going on a hot streak to close the 2021 season. From Week 15 on (including playoffs), Jones commanded a 25% target share, logging at least 8 targets in every game, and averaged 65 receiving yards per game. He also led the team in air yards (1,136) within that stretch. Money talks in the NFL, and the Jaguars prioritized Jones in free agency, signing him to a three-year, $30 million deal with $14 million guaranteed. Jones’s contract solidifies his role in the offense, joining Marvin Jones and Christian Kirk in three-wide sets. During his five-year stint in Philadelphia, new head coach Doug Pederson’s offenses have ranked top-10 in pass attempts and top-12 in scoring in all but one season.
