Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We took a look at the top 10 most consistent WRs in fantasy football Tuesday, and now we’re looking on the other side of the coin to identify the top 10 most volatile WRs.
A quick note: Once you start looking at this list, you’ll realize “volatile” is not a bad thing. At all.
There is not a single bad WR that ranks in this top 10. Most of the truly elite fantasy WRs actually end up making the top 10.
Bottom line: You want some volatility in fantasy football because it means the player has a week-winning (and league-winning) ceiling.
Methodology explainer
To find the most volatile fantasy football players, we found the standard deviation of every WR’s fantasy production week-to-week. Standard deviation measures how far apart all of the data points in a set are from the set’s average. Lower standard deviation means all the individual data points in a set are close to the average. Higher means more spread out.
We analyzed 60 WRs for the study, which covers the most fantasy-relevant names. To qualify, WRs had to play at least half the year in 2021 (9-plus games) and rank in the top 60 based on fantasy PPG.
Here are the 10 WRs that came out as the ‘most volatile’ of the bunch.
1. Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins
- Points per game: 18.5 (6 of 60)
- Standard deviation: 13 (60 of 60)
It was a methodology validator to see Tyreek Hill rank as the most volatile WR in fantasy. This should surprise nobody. His floor/ceiling combination is unrivaled.
2. Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
- PPG: 18.8 (5 of 60)
- SD: 12.9 (59 of 60)
Ja’Marr Chase’s 55.6 fantasy point eruption in Week 17 — championship week! — skews these results a bit, but if he scored 35 points in that game, he would have still ranked in the top 10 most volatile. Also, the mere fact he is capable of popping off for 55 points is why he’s here. It’s a game-changing ceiling, and he put it on display in the best week possible last year.
3. A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles
- PPG: 13.7 (25 of 60)
- SD: 10.9 (58 of 60)
The reason fantasy football analysts are annoyingly enamored with Brown is on display in this study. In case you can’t tell, “volatile” is another way of saying “players you really want.” Brown’s floor was annoying last year, but his ceiling is high, and he reaches it often. That should stay true in Philly.
4. Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
- PPG: 14.6 (21 of 60)
- SD: 10.5 (57 of 60)
Mike Williams is another player we’re not surprised to see make this list. He went crazy he first month of the season but then tempered off the rest of the way, dropping 20 points just once from Week 6 onward. It’s fun to see Williams on this list and his teammate, Keenan Allen, on the most consistent list. They are a nice combination together.
5. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
- PPG: 15.7 (12 of 60)
- SD: 10.5 (56 of 60)
Two Bengals WRs in the top five! Tee Higgins caught fire from Week 12 on, scoring 23.4, 28.8 and 43.4 points in three of the final six games of the season. He showed the ceiling again in the Super Bowl with 4 catches for 100 yards and 2 TDs. It wouldn’t be a complete shock to see Higgins outscore Chase. I’m not saying it will happen, but it’s certainly within the range of outcomes.
6. Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns
- PPG: 13.5 (27 of 60)
- SD: 9.9 (55 of 60)
Amari Cooper is another player that makes complete sense on this list. He’s always been volatile. His fate for 2022 may be tied to the QB situation in Cleveland at this point, but no matter who suits up under center, we can probably expect more Cooper volatility.
7. Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
- PPG: 13.4 (28 of 60)
- SD: 9.8 (54 of 60)
Amon-Ra St. Brown finds himself in elite company on this top 10 list after the dominant end to his rookie season. It’s a very positive sign for his future.
8. Elijah Moore, New York Jets
- PPG: 12.6 (30 of 60)
- SD: 9.8 (53 of 60)
Another rookie makes the top 10. Considering the company he’s keeping here, this is a great sign for Elijah Moore’s stick-ability in terms of fantasy value moving forward. He’s a fan favorite in the fantasy community, and this chart helps explain why.
9. Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
- PPG: 22.2 (2 of 60)
- SD: 9.6 (52 of 60)
This is one of the best charts you can find. Look how high up his lower band of the standard deviation is! It’s over 17 points! And the upper band is at 27. That’s his standard distribution! Even with such a high floor, it’s absolutely wild that Davante Adams ranked in the top 10 for volatility. He’s still a top-five fantasy WR in Vegas.
10. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
- PPG: 14.3 (23 of 60)
- SD: 9.6 (51 of 60)
I would have been surprised if Tyler Lockett didn’t find his way onto this list. Expectations are way down for Lockett in 2022, however, as he no longer has Russell Wilson — whose talents were tailor-made for a player like Lockett — slinging the rock.
