Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Three months ago, Underdog Fantasy launched the largest, best ball tournament in history, featuring 451,200 entries and $10 million in total prizes. 30% of the prize pool will be split among three entries, including $2 million to first, $1 million to second, and $1 million to the highest-scoring team in the regular season (Weeks 1-14). Drafts consist of 12-person lobbies with 18 rounds.
That means you need to nail your picks. So, I’m going round-by-round and highlighting some of my favorite players. Today, Rounds 7-12. As ADP changes throughout the summer, you can stay up to date using the Underdog tool on FTN Fantasy. Sign up for Underdog Fantasy with promo code “FTN” for a 100% deposit match up to $100. (I hit Rounds 1-6 last time.)
Round 7: Russell Gage, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Russell Gage signed a three-year, $30 million contract with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this offseason and may operate as Tom Brady’s No. 2 option to open the season. Chris Godwin tore his ACL in Week 15 last season and has an unclear timeline to return. The Buccaneers also lost All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski, who announced his retirement a few weeks ago. In 2021, Gage was hampered by an ankle injury but closed the season strong after Calvin Ridley stepped away due to a personal issue. Following the Falcons’ Week 6 bye, Gage saw 85 targets, 61 receptions, 742 yards and four touchdowns in 12 games. He averaged 11.3 half-PPR points and was the WR17 in the final 12 weeks of the season. In 2022, Gage will be a member of a Buccaneers’ offense that ranked No. 1 in pass attempts, deep ball attempts, red zone attempts, pace of play, air yards and passing touchdowns.
Round 8: Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Dak Prescott finished just inside the top-10 among quarterbacks (QB9) last season, despite being limited as a runner. Coming off a season-ending ankle injury in 2020, Prescott had a career-low in rushing yards (146) and rushing touchdowns (1) across a full season. He did, however, take a step forward as a passer, posting career highs in completion percentage (68.8%) and passing touchdowns (37). After another year removed from ankle surgery, Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy has said the offense plans to implement more quarterback runs and quarterback movement plays in 2022. From 2016 to 2019, Prescott has averaged 305 rushing yards and 5.3 rushing touchdowns every season. Although the Cowboys lost Amari Cooper in the offseason, they retained Michael Gallup and Dalton Schultz. They also added wide receiver Jalen Tolbert in the third round of the NFL Draft and signed former Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver James Washington in free agency. Prescott looks to be fully healthy heading into 2022 and has the ability to put up big numbers in a Cowboys’ offense that led the league in situational-neutral pace last season.
Round 9: Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons
After eight years in the NFL, mainly as a kick returner specialist, Cordarrelle Patterson broke the age model with a career year in his age-30 season. He excelled as both a receiver and a running back, posting career highs in touches (205), yards from scrimmage (1,166) and touchdowns (11). He also maintained his role on special teams, logging 434 yards as a kick returner. Patterson benefited from an Falcons roster devoid of talent, and that may have gotten worse since. In 2022, the Falcons will be without Calvin Ridley, who has been suspended after violating the NFL’s gambling policy. They will also be without Russell Gage, who operated as the WR1 during Ridley’s absence just a season ago. After letting Mike Davis go, the Falcons added little competition to the running back room. They spent a day three pick on former BYU running back Tyler Allgeier and signed career backup and journeyman Damien William in free agency. Patterson finished as the RB9 last season but is currently going outside the top-30 running backs.
Round 10: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson hit the ground running (so to speak) as a rookie, rushing for 194 yards and a touchdown in his first two preseason games. Stevenson’s breakout performance led to the New England Patriots trading away former first-round pick Sony Michel to the Rams. Despite playing a complementary role behind Damien Harris, Stevenson had an impressive rookie campaign. The fourth-rounder out of Oklahoma had 133 carries for 606 yards and five touchdowns — along with 14 receptions on 18 targets for 123 yards — in through 12 games. Harris is in the final year of his rookie contract, which may lead to a closer split in the backfield. With James White still recovering from a hip injury and Brandon Bolden now a member of the Raiders, Stevenson could operate as the primary receiving back. If Harris were to go down, he has an ideal combination of standalone value and league-winning upside.
Round 11: Irv Smith, TE, Minnesota Vikings
There was a lot of excitement for Irv Smith heading into the 2021 season. The 2019 first-round pick out of Alabama was in line for a breakout season after spending the first two years of his career behind Kyle Rudolph. Despite seeing limited snaps, Smith caught 30 passes for 365 yards and five touchdowns in 2020. He also ranked top-10 in both yards per target and yards per reception among all tight ends. Unfortunately, Smith was unable to get onto the field in 2021 after tearing his meniscus in the preseason. However, early reports indicate that Smith has fully recovered and should be a full participant in the Minnesota Vikings training camp. Smith should operate as the every-down tight end in a Vikings offense that finished eleventh in pass attempts last season.
Round 12: Darrell Henderson, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Darrell Henderson shined as the feature back last season after Cam Akers went down with a (supposedly) season-ending Achilles injury. Henderson was a top-15 running back for the first 12 weeks of the season, averaging 82 yards per game. Unfortunately, Henderson was unable to sustain his production after a bought with COVID-19 and a knee injury. From Week 13 on, Sony Michel took over as the starter, relegating Henderson to an ancillary role. During the offseason, the Los Angeles Rams let Michelle walk in free agency, leaving Henderson as the primary backup to Akers. Although Akers will operate as the starter, Henderson is an elite handcuff tied to one of the most high-powered offenses in the league. Akers is only a year removed from the Achilles injury and may cede work throughout the season.
