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2021 NFL win totals odds and best bets

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One of the more popular betting markets in the NFL is regular season win totals, and with 2021 now having a 17-game season, bettors may have to play out many more scenarios in their head before placing wagers. Well, 16 games or 17 games, the Kansas City Chiefs still lead the pack for NFL win totals odds and are projected to have the best record in the league.

The Chiefs have the highest-projected win total for the 2021 campaign with an O/U line of 12.5 wins at BetMGM. Kansas City has appeared in back-to-back Super Bowls and is coming off a near-flawless regular season at 14-2. 

The NFL franchise with the lowest projection in 2021 NFL win totals is the Houston Texans with an O/U line of 4 wins. The Texans could be without franchise QB Deshaun Watson for the foreseeable future and even a novice follower of the NFL could assess they have one of the weaker rosters in the league.

Below, I’ll break down why the Chiefs have the largest NFL win total projection and the two teams you should be eying for this betting market before we get into the preseason. Worth noting there are no NFL win totals odds for the Green Bay Packers as the markets are awaiting to see if QB Aaron Rodgers returns to the team.

Here are the full list of 32 teams and each one of their NFL O/U win total projections for the 2021 season, courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook:

What are the NFL win totals odds for the 2021 season? 

Odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook.

Team 2021 Win Total (BetMGM) Over (BetMGM) Under (BetMGM)
Kansas City Chiefs 12.5 +110 -135
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 -150 +125
Buffalo Bills 11 -110 -110
Baltimore Ravens 11 -110 -110
San Francisco 49ers 10.5 -140 +115
Green Bay Packers 10.5 N/A N/A
Cleveland Browns 10.5 -120 +100
Los Angeles Rams 10.5 +115 -140
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 -150 +125
Dallas Cowboys 9.5 -110 -110
Seattle Seahawks 9.5 -135 +125
Tennessee Titans 9.5 -110 -110
New England Patriots  9.5 +105 -120
New Orleans Saints 9 -110 -110
Los Angeles Chargers 9 -110 -110
Miami Dolphins 9 +100 -120
Minnesota Vikings 9 -120 +105
Denver Broncos 8.5 -140 +115
Pittsburgh Steelers 8.5 -105 -115
Arizona Cardinals 8 +105 -120
Washington Football Team 8 -110 -110
Carolina Panthers 7.5 +100 -120
Chicago Bears 7.5 +100 -120
Atlanta Falcons 7.5 -110 -110
Las Vegas Raiders 7 -120 +105
New York Giants 7 -135 +115
Philadelphia Eagles  6.5 -165 +135
Cincinnati Bengals 6.5 +105 -125
Jacksonville Jaguars  6.5 +100 -120
New York Jets 6 -110 -110
Detroit Lions 5 -110 -110
Houston Texans 4 -115 -105

Why do the Chiefs have the highest NFL season win total?

Being able to boast having a generational quarterback like Patrick Mahomes and an offensive innovator in coach Andy Reid, it would be criminal to have any other team but the Chiefs as the top team for 2021 NFL win totals odds. The Chiefs are coming off a 14-2 campaign in 2020 while appearing in Super Bowl 55 and have an O/U line of 12.5 for the 2021 season with the OVER at +110 and the UNDER at -135. 

After appearing in back-to-back Super Bowls, the Chiefs got exposed vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a make-shift offensive line held together by duct tape. Mahomes running for his life is something the KC doesn’t want to see happen again, so they addressed their offensive line issues in the offseason with the acquisitions of Orlando Brown and Joe Thuney. With the offensive line remodeled, it’s really hard to make a case for the Chiefs falling below this win total line of 12.5. 

The eye test and stats show the Chiefs as being head-and-shoulders above the other teams in their division and the only team that may be able to compete with them is the Chargers but even that might be a stretch. The Chargers, Raiders or Broncos likely didn’t improve enough to pose a serious threat to KC. At this point, pencil in Kansas City for 13 or more wins as we continue to watch the ascension of QB Patrick Mahomes into all-time great status.

Teams to bet for NFL win total predictions

There are two NFL teams I think have skewed lines for NFL win totals odds where there is a clear betting edge and those two squads are the Cleveland Browns at 10.5 wins and the New Orleans Saints at 9 wins. Let’s break down each team and which side I’m betting:

Cleveland Browns O10.5 wins 

The first thing I ever wrote for FTNBets was about how I bet on the Browns at +140 for AFC North odds with my “Dog of the Day” series. The Browns are coming off the franchise’s most successful season since it was reborn into the NFL in 1999. Cleveland went 11-5 and made the playoffs for the first time since 2002 and even was able to exact some longtime revenge on their divisional rival, the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round.

Top to bottom, the Browns may have the most talented roster in the NFL with blue-chippers at nearly every position, a dominant run game and an emerging star quarterback in Baker Mayfield.

After nabbing 11 wins in 2020 and now having to play an additional game in 2021, this line feels short and is likely the oddsmakers being tentative on crowning the Browns as an AFC powerhouse. Given their recent history, the line makes sense but doesn’t mean we can’t still take advantage. With teams like the Steelers and Bengals in a tier below for talent, Cleveland is built to ascend in the AFC North and get 11 wins or more.

New Orleans Saints U9 wins -110

The Saints are entering unfamiliar territory in 2021 with longtime QB Drew Brees retiring and putting signal callers like Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill at the forefront. The future Hall of Famer’s accuracy and leadership were staples of a team that routinely won double-digit games for the past four seasons. Now, with Winston and Hill in the fold, the Saints could be in for a rude awakening offensively.

Look, this isn’t meant to pile up on Winston, but in his last season as a starter, he ended up throwing over 30 touchdown passes to go with an obscene 30 interceptions. He may very well end up correcting his turnover issue/career under the tutelage of head coach Sean Payton, but if his tenure in Tampa Bay was any indication of what’s to come, it could get ugly in the Bayou. As for Hill, he’s too gimmicky of a player to be a full-time quarterback and will likely be used as a decoy or secondary running back to Alvin Kamara. Payton has been able to scrape by without Brees for stints, but for a full season, that might be too many Ws for Winston to eat.

The Saints projected win total for the 2021 NFL season is at 9 wins with the UNDER at -110. I’m not saying this is a lock, but I’m not not saying it either.

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