2021 NFL Draft best prop bets

It is 2021 NFL Draft season, as we are only nine days away from 32 young men hearing their names called in the first round by commissioner Robert Goodell. I have talked about this in all my pieces so far — whether Bet the Mock, Long Shot Bets or Landing Spot Bets — but embracing the variance and understanding that most mocks won’t get more than six or seven picks right is incredibly important to having success.

When looking at NFL draft player props, what I am looking for is as many outs as possible. I want multiple teams to potentially draft that player before his number if I have an under, or I want to bet that a guy is going to drop because there simply aren't many sensible options to go. For the 2021 NFL Draft there are a lot of good values, but here are three of my favorites.

Jaycee Horn Under 13.5

(-110, Tipico Sportsbook)

I wrote Horn up as one of my favorite plays to be the first defender off the board at +1000 in Long Shot Bets. That line has since dropped to +700, and while I still think there is value in that number, it’s OK to add more with his player prop taking under 13.5. Horn is a physical, athletic, dominant man-to-man corner, and those types of players don't typically fall. He is said to be CB1 on a lot of teams’ draft boards and has a lot of outs from tradeups — the Panthers, Broncos, Cowboys, Eagles, Chargers and Cardinals all need a corner or really need a corner.. This number has already moved to -135 on FanDuel, and I expect this to drop to 12.5 by the day of the draft.

Alijah Vera-Tucker Under 17.5

(+100, BetMGM)

Vera-Tucker is one of the safest prospects in the draft. Yes, he might need to play guard instead of tackle, but the talent is undeniable, and teams are desperate for offensive line talent. With Rashawn Slater and Penei Sewell both having totals set at 9 or lower, you are looking at teams at Picks 10-17 needing offensive line help with Vera-Tucker and Christian Darrisaw likely battling for third O-lineman off the board. Between 10 and 17, the Cowboys, Giants, Chargers, Vikings and Raiders are all in need of offensive line help, with the odds for the Chargers, Vikings and Raiders heavily suggesting they will go offensive line with their first pick. Vera-Tucker is said to be very popular among the decision makers for Miami, who pick at 18, and the rest of the league knows it. Don’t be surprised if a team like the Jets, Colts or Bears jump up to get him either. This number is as low as 14.5 elsewhere, and you get even money to take the under, so this is a no-brainer value bet.

Micah Parsons Over 11.5

(-120, Bet365)

Parsons is dropping — his number opened at 10.5, he was the favorite to be the first defender to be taken, and he had an awesome pro day. Since then, his number has dropped all the way to 13.5 at other books with the juice on the over. Off-field concerns are said to be very real, questions of him being a better athlete than a cover guy have come to light, and he plays a non-premium position. I think his absolute ceiling is 11 to the Giants, and it’s more likely he goes outside of the top 20 than inside the top 10. There is real value in this number at Bet365 as they have been slow to react compared to the rest of the market.