Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It’s well known that as running backs near (or pass) age 30, they are beyond their prime for fantasy football. But there are still RBs worth chasing as they approach this dreaded age. Here are two “old” RBs to target in best ball in 2024.
I initially wanted to do this article as RBs aged 30+ to target, but the sample is so small that I had to lower it to 29. We’re considering age once the season starts.
All ADP data is from FTN’s Underdog ADP tool. And be sure to check out our free ADP exploration tool (free!) so you can spot ADP trends before the rest of the crowd.
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Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens
The Big Dog’s ADP has hovered in the 40-43 range for the last two weeks. But in the last week, people have started to warm up on him again:
Derrick Henry joins a Ravens offense that has been historically great on the ground in recent years. They passed a lot more last year – Lamar Jackson had a career-high 457 passing attempts – but Baltimore still led the league with a 49.9% rush rate. Henry is 30 and has an enormous amount of wear. His 2,030 career rushing attempts ranks 42nd all-time, and Ezekiel Elliott and Adrian Peterson are the only recent players near him in total attempts.
But he’s also Derrick Freakin’ Henry. He has scored at least 10 rushing TDs in a ridiculous six straight seasons. He’s even caught the ball more the last two years – about 30 receptions per season after not hitting 20 in any of his previous years.
The King is not going to hit 2,000 yards again. He may not hit 10-plus TDs again. His YPC average hit a new low last year (4.2) and has been below 4.5 for three straight years now. But that’s why he’s going in Round 4, not Round 1. I’d argue his age is offset by the great environment: A run-first team and no other legitimate competition for touches, especially near the goal line.
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Is this chasing? Maybe. Am I doing it anyway? Uh, yeah.
Raheem Mostert’s ADP right now is 92.7. This is despite the fact he was the 16th-most valuable player in all of fantasy football last year, using Fantasy Wins Added as our guide. Most people are (probably correctly) assuming De’Von Achane will take on the lead-back duties this year. Achane averaged an insane 7.8 YPC last year, after all. And he’s only 22, a full decade younger than Mostert’s creaky 32.
But Miami loves Mostert. He’s such a good fit in this offense. They even just signed him to a new two-year, $9 million deal:
After he scored a ridiculous 18 rushing TDs last year, it’s hard to see a scenario in which Miami doesn’t use him heavily near the goal line again. The team didn’t just re-sign him to non-backup money for no reason.
As noted above, everyone and their mother knows that Achane will have a bigger role this year. That’s why Achane is being drafted in Round 2. But I’m still interested in Old Man Mostert at 93rd overall, the same range as Austin Ekeler, Zamir White, Jaylen Warren and Tyjae Spears. The team situation is just too good to pass up compared to these other players.
