2024 FTN NFL Power Rankings Through Week 15: Who Takes Over the Top Spot?
Daniel Kelley
(As we head toward training camp and the start of preseason, our own Daniel Kelley is asking — and attempting to answer — the most pressing questions around fantasy football for 2022. This is 100 Questions.)
The smallest gap between first and second place in the NFC North in the last five years was 3 games, when the 13-3 Packers beat the 10-6 Vikings in 2019. Every other division in the league has had at least one year of a 1-game (or smaller) gap. That is mostly due to the Packers’ dominance, but then the Bears and Vikings each have a division title in the last five years as well. The NFC North has a whole generation of being one very good team and a bunch of mediocrity.
Chicago Bears
The Bears have made the playoffs in two of the last four years, but one of those was with a .500 record, and otherwise they’ve finished third or fourth in the NFC North in six of the last eight years. And now, per DraftKings Sportsbook, only four teams have 2022 wins over/unders lower than the Bears’ 6.5. We’re in a fallow period of Bears history, is the point.
65. Will Justin Fields Be a Weekly Fantasy Starter?
Justin Fields played nine full games last year. When Matt Nagy was coaching, he averaged 5.9 carries and 32.5 rushing yards per game. In the one game Nagy missed with COVID-19 (Week 8), Fields had 10 carries for 103 yards. It’s not quite that simple, of course, and Nagy let Fields run gradually more over the season, but still, Fields was QB5 in Week 8 and now is the sure starter entering his second season in the league.
Best Answer: This is a quarterback behind the worst offensive line in the league, who has one of the worst pass-catching units supporting him, who had 7 touchdowns against 10 interceptions on 270 pass attempts last year. But he’s also a quarterback who had four weekly top-10 finishes in his final four full games, who could be top-three in QB rushing yards this year, who was a first-round pick a year ago and was in conversation to go as high as No. 2. In other words, the only quarterback who can rival Fields’ floor/ceiling gap in 2022 is Trey Lance in San Francisco. He’s available at QB17, which bridges that floor/ceiling gap. I am definitely in favor of taking him in that range because of the ceiling, but the floor means he’s one of the few quarterbacks where you’d want to also draft a backup.
66. Can Darnell Mooney Take Another Step Forward?
Darnell Mooney was interesting as a rookie in 2020, with 631 yards on 98 targets. He took a huge step in Year 2, outshining incumbent No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson in a big way and putting up 1,055 yards on 140 targets that was tied for 11th in the league. He caught only 81 of those 140 targets — his 57% catch percentage was second lowest among all players with more than 110 targets ahead of only DJ Moore; per the FTN Fantasy Advanced Receiving Stats, his catchable target percentage (72%) was tied for third lowest. He only scored four touchdowns; only Jakobi Meyers, Mike Gesicki and Cole Beasley had fewest with more than 110 targets.
Best Answer: Mooney was WR23 last year, and he’s WR23 in ADP right now (and our rankers have him at WR25). Maybe Fields doesn’t become a superstar (yet?), but even if he doesn’t improve much, he’s better than Andy Dalton and Nick Foles were last year. In other words, it’s hard to see Mooney falling off much. Maybe the relatively lower ceiling in this rough Bears offense means you don’t want to burn a pick on him, but it’s hard to imagine Mooney failing to return at least draft-day value.
67. Cole Kmet Is Going to Score Some Touchdowns … Right?
There were only seven tight ends who had more targets than Cole Kmet had last year, but there were 19 who had more PPR points — among 35 tight ends with at least 40 targets last year, Kmet’s 1.30 PPR points per target were comfortable worst (Cameron Brate at 1.38 was the only other player under 1.40). Obviously, his touchdown total (a whopping zero) was the biggest culprit here, as Kmet set the all-time TE record for most targets without a touchdown.
Best Answer: He’ll score in 2022, because he more or less has to. But then he’s getting drafted at TE11 this draft season, which means everyone knows that. And while TE11 is a reasonable outcome, it’s important to note that, even overlooking the touchdowns, Kmet … hasn’t been great. Once you get past “He’ll get a lot of targets on this bad depth chart,” there aren’t many selling points. His career yards per route run (1.34) is below average, verging on bad, as is his PFF grade. A lot of targets is the most important thing, but it’s not the only thing. Target Kmet if you are hoping for someone to sneak into the end of the TE1s. Don’t if you are looking for the next breakout tight end.
Detroit Lions
The last time the Lions were division champs, it was 1993 and it was called the NFC Central. The last time they won a playoff game was 1991. It’s been a long run of futility in Detroit, but there is some buzz of excitement around the team heading into 2022.
68. Is T.J. Hockenson the Best Bet to Crack the Top Tier at TE?
T.J. Hockenson was the eighth overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. Among tight ends who have played all three years since, he’s eighth in fantasy points per game over his career. Now he’s 25 and entering his fourth year, but he also has more target competition than he’s ever had.
Best Answer: Hockenson’s best selling point last year was the Lions’ depth chart. The team’s best wide receiver at this point in 2021 was … Tyrell Williams? Quintez Cephus? Like the aforementioned Kmet, Hockenson hasn’t had the greatest metrics in his career (better than Kmet’s, but still well below the top tight ends), but on a barren depth chart he was going to get targets regardless. Now? Amon-Ra St. Brown broke out and the team signed DJ Chark, re-signed Josh Reynolds and drafted Jameson Williams in the first round. The team has targets now. Hockenson is TE7 in drafts right now, and that’s the earliest I could possibly see taking him. I’d rather take some higher ceilings later.
69. Can Amon-Ra St. Brown Do That Again?
Through Week 12 last year, then-rookie fourth-rounder Amon-Ra St. Brown was averaging 4.7 targets, 3.5 targets and 32.0 yards per game and hadn’t scored a touchdown. He was the WR62, near such illustrious receivers as Bryan Edwards, Robbie Anderson and Jamal Agnew. Over the last six weeks, he went nuclear — 11.2 targets, 8.5 receptions, 93.3 yards, 6 total touchdowns, 151.1 PPR points, better than any player at any position other than the record-setting Cooper Kupp.
Best Answer: St. Brown has some of the same “competition for targets” hangups as Hockenson. Hockenson played one game during St. Brown’s hot stretch, D’Andre Swift two (and with light usage). All those new additions mean St. Brown won’t be that ridiculously productive again … but then he doesn’t need to be. If we thought he’d average 11.2 targets a game, he’d be a first-round pick instead of a fifth-rounder (WR20) that he is. Still, while St. Brown’s peripherals were more reassuring than Hockenson’s, they don’t exactly scream star. Drafting him at WR20 is a ceiling play, and you want to avoid ceiling plays.
70. So Then D’Andre Swift Is the Lion You Want?
D’Andre Swift was the RB5 through Week 11 last year, coming off back-to-back 100-yard games. He was averaging 6.7 targets per game and was already at 975 scrimmage yards for the season. And then after a shoulder injury he played three games and totaled 78 snaps over the season’s final seven weeks, pulling him down to RB15. Assuming he’s healthy, though, is that pre-injury lofty status attainable?
Best Answer: Our Kyle Murray thinks so, pegging Swift as his best candidate to take the ultimate leap this year. Me? I’m more nervous. Outside of those back-to-back hundred-yard games, Swift had one game over 50 yards last year (and it was, uh, 51). If we assume the same added target competition that had us downgrading St. Brown and Hockenson will also affect Swift (and I don’t see why it wouldn’t), then taking him at his current ADP of RB7 is a bit of an overbid. The moral here: The Lions offense should be improved overall, but each individual piece feels a bit overrated right now.
Green Bay Packers
It’s easy to forget now that it was actually fairly recently that the Packers had back-to-back losing seasons. They went 7-9 and 6-9-1 in 2017-2018, finishing third in the North both years. Of course, they’ve followed that up with three straight 13-win seasons and two consecutive MVPs for Aaron Rodgers, so it’s easy to fade the bad memories.
71. How Much Does the Loss of Davante Adams Hurt Aaron Rodgers?
Davante Adams has been one of the best receivers in football since his 997-yard, 12-touchdown breakout in 2016. Any quarterback would love to have such a receiver on his team, so … Adams heading to the Raiders this offseason should hurt Rodgers, right? Well, let’s look at the FTN Fantasy splits tool:
Huh. Interesting.
Best Answer: First of all, note our sample there — Rodgers has played eight games over six seasons without Adams. Anything can happen in that stretch. But the takeaways is that … not much changes. (I do find it interesting that, like Patrick Mahomes in the Chiefs section, Rodgers throws more INTs when Adams is around.) Obviously a star receiver leaving matters, but maybe it doesn’t matter that much? Rodgers is going near the end of the QB1s, and that feels like a discount, no matter who he’s throwing the ball to.
72. So Who Is He Throwing the Ball To?
It’s not just Adams that left this offseason; Marquez Valdes-Scantling hit free agency as well. Allen Lazard is the top returning receiver in Green Bay, and the Packers signed Sammy Watkins and spent a second-round pick on Christian Watson as well. We don’t know the Packers will have a fantasy stud here, but trying to find the right one can be a season-maker.
Best Answer: With Adams and MVS on the roster, and missing two games, Lazard was the WR47 last year. Now he’s the only noteworthy holdover for a quarterback who famously values his connection to his receivers, and he’s available at … WR50? Some of my questions are tough. This one is not. Lazard’s a steal.
73. Should We Just Focus on Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon?
Three Packers topped 550 scrimmage yards last year. One was Adams, who is now gone. The other two came in close to one another — Aaron Jones at 1,190 yards, and AJ Dillon at 1,116. Dillon actually outrushed Jones, 803-799, while Jones had a slight edge in receptions (52-34), yards (391-313) and total touchdowns (10-7). Can both be fantasy stars in 2022?
Best Answer: Indications out of Green Bay are that Jones might be a bigger beneficiary of Adams’ departure than any individual receiver, splitting the sixth-year star out wide more often. Assuming that’s even close to true, then yes, there is definitely a chance for both to be productive, especially considering these Packers might have one of the game’s best defenses in 2022 and opt to run the games out. Both are available in the top 24 in ADP (Jones RB14, Dillon RB24), and I have no issue with either — in fact, I might argue to push Jones into the top 10 at running back.
Minnesota Vikings
Arguably no team has had less changeover at the fantasy-relevant positions from last season than the Vikings. Their biggest offseason addition is actually the return of a player who has been around for years in Irv Smith. After that the biggest skill-position add this summer has been … Albert Wilson? Of course, the team did change its entire front office and, reportedly, offensive game plan, so despite the stasis, things could be very different in 2022.
74. Is Adam Thielen Still a Fantasy Starter?
Adam Thielen turns 32 in August and hasn’t cracked 1,000 yards since 2018. On the other hand, only Davante Adams (29) and Mike Evans (27) have more than Thielen’s 24 receiving touchdowns the last two years. Anyone who is a team’s touchdown weapon like that still ought to matter.
Best Answer: The question, of course, is whether Thielen is still the Vikings’ touchdown weapon. Double-digit touchdowns in two straight years would seem to indicate that, but the reverse is this: His 14 touchdowns in 2020 came with 20 of the Vikings’ 39 end-zone targets. He dominated the role, and the touchdowns made sense. But his 10 in 2021 came with only 8 of the team’s 41 such targets, with Justin Jefferson getting 17. His scoring prowess in 2020 made sense. In 2021, it didn’t nearly as much. Add it together and you have the recipe for a 2022 bust, even at a draft cost of WR31.
75. Is it at Last Irv Smith SZN?
Irv Smith was supposed to break out a year ago, with the departure of Kyle Rudolph. A torn meniscus shelved that for a year, but now he’s healthy and Tyler Conklin is gone. As a first-/second-year tight end in 2018-2019, Smith averaged 10.7 PPR points per game in the five games Rudolph missed, which would have a top-10 number last year, and at an age when most tight ends are struggling to break out.
Best Answer: Sometimes hype is misplaced, and the smart money is on fading the conventional wisdom. But sometimes you just have to fall in line, and this feels like one of those times. Smith catching touchdowns could be a further reason why Thielen disappoints, and with the new coaching staff sounding more pass-happy than the previous regime, there’s plenty of reason to think Smith can have the overdue breakout. He’s TE14 by ADP, but TE17 by our staff consensus. Personally, I’m taking him closer to TE10, and I could see him beating that number.
76. Should We Be Concerned About Dalvin Cook?
Dalvin Cook was a superstar in 2020. He was the RB2 in PPR, notching 1,918 scrimmage yards and scoring a whopping 17 touchdowns. Only Derrick Henry going crazy on the league kept Cook from being the cover boy on all the preview magazines for 2021. Last year, he was … merely very good. The scrimmage yards fell to 1,3838, the touchdowns fell way off to 6, and he was RB16 instead of RB2. Where should we bank for 2022?
Best Answer: The drop in touchdowns is somewhat explainable by usage — Cook saw his carries inside the 5, inside the 10, in the red zone all drop by about 40% year-over-year. But then expecting anyone to score 17 times is always a foolish bet. Even his “decreased” scoring looks were still top-10 numbers in the league. And if the offense as a whole is better in 2022 with the new coaching staff (which most expect), his opportunities will rise. Cook’s missed multiple games every year of his career, so feel free to ding him for that a little, but very few backs have his upside, either weekly or over the whole year. He’s available at RB6 in ADP, and that’s where he is in Jeff Ratcliffe’s fantasy rankings, but I’d eye him at RB4 or 5. That’s a small difference, but in the first round small differences matter.
