Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(Knowing the right question to ask is as important as knowing the answer. In 100 Questions, FTN’s Daniel Kelley identifies the key fantasy football questions to ask heading into the 2021 NFL season. Today: The AFC East.)
After a changing of the guard at the top of the AFC East for the first time in a generation of football, can the Bills turn this into a divisional dynasty? And what does the newly scrambled-up East mean for fantasy?
Buffalo Bills
In 2015-2019, only the Jets (6,122.1) put up fewer fantasy points than the Bills’ 6,142.0. The Bills had a 40-40 record, but the list of fantasy successes was basically “LeSean McCoy.” But in 2020, only four teams put up more PPR points than the Bills’ 1,707.6, as Josh Allen broke out and Stefon Diggs arrived.
5. Is Josh Allen really a superstar now?
I have to fill out the apology form. I thought Allen would offer fantasy value with his legs but never be a good passer. And I was wrong — Allen could turn into a Tim Tebow-shaped pumpkin and he’ll already have done more than I expected. But after being a bad passer in Year 1, a mediocre one in Year 2 and a stud in Year 3, is Allen just a rocket ship blasting into stardom?
Best answer: A month ago, I noted the Bills had the second-largest leap in fantasy points around the league last year. Their 35.8% increase from 2019 to 2020 marked only the 10th time in 15 years a team has improved by at least 35%, and they almost invariably go down the next year. Allen could be just as good in a technical sense in 2021 and he’d likely drop back to the pack in fantasy. He’s a top-five fantasy quarterback, but for me he’s closer to 5 than 1.
6. Stefon Diggs is the No. 1 receiver. Who is No. 2?
John Brown was limited to 9 games and 52 targets last year, and he’s in Vegas now. Cole Beasley was the team’s solid No. 2 with 107 targets. But Emmanuel Sanders is around now, and Gabriel Davis (7 touchdowns on 35 receptions, 63 targets) is entering his second year. Is Beasley firmly the second receiver you want here?
Best answer: We must acknowledge: Beasley is not vaccinated, has no apparent plans to be, and has said he’d give up his career before his “freedom.” You don’t have to agree with him to accept he’s near the top of the list of “players who could miss time because of COVID-19,” and you have to bake that into the rankings. (It’s also reportedly possible the Bills just release him to avoid the headache.) On our FTN Fantasy rankings, Beasley’s above Davis. Me? I’m the other way. Davis’ weekly upside (and Beasley’s risk) makes him the pick.
7. Do we care about the backfield in Buffalo?
Devin Singletary quietly had 956 scrimmage yards last year, though he only scored twice. Rookie Zack Moss scuffled to 576 yards (missing three games) and scored five times. Matt Breida is around now, but he scuffled to 350 scoreless yards in his lone season in a near-vacant Miami backfield.
Best answer: Moss is supposedly the goal-line weapon, but (a) Allen is a better one, and (b) Singletary does almost everything else better. The base answer is no, you don’t want a Bills running back, but if you are going to get one, get Singletary, especially considering he saves you about 30 spots in ADP right now.
Miami Dolphins
The 2020 Dolphins became the first team since the 2015 Jets to miss the playoffs despite 10 wins. I’d argue that was a blessing in disguise — teams often “run it back” with playoff teams while just missing encourages building. The Dolphins signed Will Fuller and drafted Jaylen Waddle, an impressive addition of weapons.
8. How early should we draft Will Fuller?
Fuller put up a career year in 2020, setting career highs in yards (879) and touchdowns (8). He stayed healthy for the first time … and still missed five games, getting a six-game suspension for a PED polic violation, which carries over to Week 1 this year.
Best answer: Fuller is going as a mid-range WR4 in drafts. So you likely aren’t relying on him. But tread lightly — we already know he’s missing one game, he’s missed multiple games every year (five or more four straight years), he’s no longer got Deshaun Watson throwing him the ball, and he’s joining a crowded target tree (with Waddle, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki). Take a flier on Fuller, sure, but don’t take him somewhere where you’re in trouble if he fails.
9. Can Tua Tagovailoa be a fantasy breakout?
If a pro suffers the kind of injury Tua Tagovailoa suffered at Alabama and comes back the next year, he wins the Comeback Player of the Year Award. But Tua got hurt in one part of football and “came back” in a different one, and fair or not, people don’t grade him on the same curve. My advice? Ignore his rookie numbers. But that doesn’t mean he’s a guaranteed star.
Best answer: What do we mean by “breakout?” If that means “sure-fire fantasy starter,” then that’s asking too much. But if it means “fill-in starter who can support a fantasy-productive offense,” sign me up. I’m far more worried about the Dolphins’ defense being good enough to dissuade passing than Tua’s capabilities.
10. Is Myles Gaskin a fantasy starter?
Myles Gaskin is going in the sixth round of most drafts, a low-end RB2. Our FTN Fantasy rankings say the same. This after he was RB10 in PPR points per game last year. And he finished hot, RB3 in Weeks 16-17.
Best answer: The Dolphins did Gaskin a favor by not drafting a back or signing any big names. But they did add Malcolm Brown, who, while not a star, has been a goal-line weapon, with 4 scores on 9 carries inside the five-yard line last year. That will eat into Gaskin’s upside, and the offensive additions elsewhere could do that as well. Color me skeptical of Gaskin as a fantasy lineup mainstay.
New England Patriots
The last time before the 2020 season that the Patriots finished under .500, Mac Jones was 2 years old. Obviously, Tom Brady’s departure signified a turning of the page in New England, but a 7-9 record signified it more.
11. The Patriots have tight ends again, isn’t that interesting?
The Patriots have the reputation as a tight end factory, getting the second-most PPR points from the position across the last decade. Of course, that was almost entirely Rob Gronkowski — he had 62% of that production. So “Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry are Pats now!” isn’t like a running back landing with Mike Shanahan.
Best answer: No tight end other than Gronk, Aaron Hernandez and Martellus Bennett has even totaled 42 targets in the last decade. So sure, the Patriots aren’t actually a tight end factory, but also, Henry and Smith are several steps ahead of the Devin Asiasi/Matt LaCosse types. If we had one big-name tight end here, I’d be fine having him as a TE1. We don’t, and that’s frustrating, but getting either guy as a high-end TE2 is a solid play.
12. What do you do with this pile of a backfield?
Damien Harris had a lot of work in the middle of 2020, bookended by injuries on either side. Sony Michel had a fair amount of work while Harris was out, but he missed time to injured reserve. James White just kept James White-ing along, finishing 10th in RB targets. And the team drafted Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round. That’s a lot of backs!
Best answer: The drafting community seems pretty decisive that if you’re drafting a Patriot running back, it’s Damien Harris. Per our FTN ADP tool, he’s going in the early 100s (108.2), with White (171.7), Stevenson (209.6) and Michel (267.9) all well behind. But … why? Did we ever see enough from Harris last year to count on that? He missed virtually his entire rookie year to injury and was hurt at the beginning and end of last year as well. He’s nothing as a receiver (7 targets in two seasons). And the team added Stevenson. No, if I’m taking a Patriot, given all the question marks elsewhere, it’s White, who is at a massive discount and could lead the position in targets.
13. Is Nelson Agholor the Patriots receiver you want?
After five disappointing years in Philadelphia, Nelson Agholor had a career year in Vegas. Even then, that only meant 896 yards, a WR34 finish, and as many weeks outside the top 90 receivers (3) as inside the top 25. But Agholor was the Patriots’ big WR splash this offseason, so does that give him a ceiling?
Best answer: Do people remember Jakobi Meyers? He had more ceiling weeks than Agholor and, once he was in the offense, a higher floor, and that was despite zero receiving scores on the year and an awful quarterback situation. You can get Meyers 5-6 rounds later than Agholor, and that’s a far better value.
New York Jets
The Jets were a shocking late-season two-game winning streak away from landing Trevor Lawrence, and somehow both wins came over playoff teams (the Browns and Rams). On the other hand, No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson could be a nice consolation prize.
14. Is Michael Carter fantasy starter-worthy?
Virtually everyone assumed the Jets would land a running back somewhere in the draft, given they only had La’Mical Perine, Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. So when Day 1 and 2 passed with no running back headed to MetLife, eyebrows were raised. The Jets finally addressed the position super early on Day 3, picking UNC’s Michael Carter with the second pick of the fourth round.
Best answer: ESPN’s Mike Clay noted earlier this month that there have been 65 Round 4 running backs since 2001, and only one — Domanick Williams, 2003 — even finished as a top-20 PPR back as a rookie (in fact, only 12 have ever had a top-20 finish). Obviously, backs going in that range aren’t often set up for a big workload like Carter could be, but it’s true that the odds are stacked against him being a star right away. If you want to take a flier, go ahead, but where he’s going in drafts, give me a Ronald Jones or a James Conner.
15. There are a lot of receivers in New York, but which ones do we care about?
Nobody thinks the Jets are an elite offense — per the FTN Fantasy ADP tool, only the Patriots, Raiders and Lions have their first receiver drafted later than first Jet Corey Davis at WR50. It’s interesting, then, that the Jets are the first team with four receivers off the board, with Elijah Moore (No. 60), Denzel Mims (67) and Jamison Crowder (68) in quick succession.
Best answer: Contrast current ADP with the FTN Fantasy rankings for your answer. Davis (ADP WR50, ranking WR49) and Moore (ADP WR60, ranking WR54) are both going in similar spots, but Mims (ADP WR67, ranking WR79) and Crowder (ADP WR68, ranking WR70) are a fair bit later. If you’re taking a Jet, opt for the offseason signing and the rookie over the holdovers.
16. Are we still holding out hope for Christopher Herndon?
As 2018 rookies, Christopher Herndon and Mark Andrews fared similarly — Herndon had 113.2 PPR points on a 39-502-4 line; Andrews had 107.2 points on 34-552-3. They were the No. 6 (Herndon) and No. 8 (Andrews) rookie TEs in the last decade. Both were breakout candidates for 2019. Since then, Andrews has 122 receptions, 1,553 yards and 17 touchdowns, and only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller have outscored him at tight end. Herndon? 32-294-3 in two seasons — a whopping 52 tight ends have outscored him.
Best answer: Hope springs eternal, I suppose, but Herndon is on his third coaching staff and the team has built up the weaponry around him. He’s essentially free in drafts (going in the 200s per the FTN Fantasy ADP tool), but even then, give me guys going around him like Anthony Firkser, Hayden Hurst and Dalton Schultz. If Herndon realizes the upside some thought he had, it’ll come on the waiver wire.
