Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
In 2011, the Carolina Panthers, fueled primarily by the quarterback shift from Jimmy Clausen, et al, to top overall pick Cam Newton, saw their cumulative offensive PPR points (QB/RB/WR/TE) climb by a massive 67.5%.
In 2012, they dropped by 9.3%.
In 2019, the Pittsburgh Steelers, with Ben Roethlisberger hurt and Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell gone, saw their fantasy production drop off by 37.2%.
Last year, they rebounded by 41.6%.
Those two teams were the biggest riser and faller, respectively, in fantasy production over the last 15 years, so perhaps it’s no surprise the yo-yo went back the other way the next year. So let’s take it a step further: In the last 15 years, 25 teams have seen their fantasy production drop by at least 20% from one year to the next. Of those — excepting one that hasn’t played the next season — all but two improved the third year. It’s easier to improve than get worse, so in the same time span, 56 teams have improved by at least 20%. Three haven’t played their third year, but of the other 53, 40 have gotten worse the next year.
“Regression” might be one of the most overused terms in fantasy analysis, but it also applies to many circumstances. And as much as we might like to believe that a team that just set new heights one year will continue, math dictates that big jumps in one direction are almost always followed by a move the other way.
Today, we’re looking at the teams we can expect to score dramatically more or fewer points in 2021. It’s not based on personnel, or schedule, or anything like that. It’s just the teams that moved the most last year, and math tells us they’re likely to go the other way.
A couple notes before we start:
- As mentioned, this is offense only. Nobody really cares how a team’s kicker points affected its yearly total.
- We take this at a team level to avoid situations where a team’s strategy changed but the overall production didn’t. Case in point: From 2013 to 2014, the 49ers saw their RB scoring drop by 50 and TE scoring drop by 146, while their WR scoring increased by 200. Overall, the team’s production was essentially equal (1,207.1 points in 2013, 1,204.3 in 2014), it was just allocated differently.
- Scoring has, of course, trended upward over the last 15 years — in 2006, the average team PPR total was 1,219.6 points; in 2020, it was 1,473.4. As such there are fewer teams seeing dramatic dropoffs in scoring than dramatic increases.
Let's look at the teams.
Teams that will put up more fantasy production
New York Giants
2019: 1,463.0 PPR points
2020: 1,124.8
Change: -23.1%
Saquon Barkley went from 13 games to 2, and from 244.1 PPR points to 15.4. Daniel Jones went from 17.5 points per game to 13.6. Evan Engram, 13.7 to 8.8. Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard each missed four games. If it could go wrong for the Giants last year, it went wrong.
Why it should improve: Barkley is healthier, if not quite 100%. Tate is gone, with a massive upgrade in Kenny Golladay and rookie Kadarius Toney entering (and John Ross, if we’re playing the post-hype-est of sleepers). Kyle Rudolph also enters, and while he’s no star anymore, he’s a bona fide end zone weapon. It’s all set up for Jones … if he can make the most of it.
New England Patriots
2019: 1,447.0
2020: 1,166.9
Change: -19.4%
So, after checking my notes and conducting plenty of research, I have come to the conclusion that removing the best quarterback ever from an offense could potentially hurt that offense. It’s a hot take, I know. Cam Newton started his Patriots tenure hot enough, fantasy’s QB2 through two weeks, but a bout with COVID-19 later (I’m not saying they’re connected, correlation/causation, all that, just noting the timing), he looked washed as a passer, with only 5 touchdown passes on the season before a 3-TD outing in a meaningless Week 17. Add in the end of Julian Edelman, the failure to develop N'Keal Harry, and a gaping void at tight end, and the Patriots had nothing to speak of.
Why it should improve: Step away from the quarterbacks for a moment. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are the upgradest of all upgrades over Dalton Keene and Devin Asiasi. The New England offseason splurge at receiver might not have yielded much in the way of big names, but Nelson Agholor & Co. should be a step above Harry, Edelman’s carcass and Damiere Byrd. Damien Harris should be an improvement over the largely failed Sony Michel experiment. And then there’s the Newton/Mac Jones combo, which … is a huge wild card, but with enormous ceiling.
Baltimore Ravens
2019: 1,553.5
2020: 1,362.2
Change: -12.3%
Here’s an example of where increased scoring trends can make this difficult — the Ravens only fell off by 12.3% from 2019 to 2020, making them only a borderline-at-best inclusion here, but then only three teams dropped off by at least 10%, the fewest in the last 15 years. But only five teams outscored the Ravens in 2019, while 23 did so in 2020. The reason? Dramatically reduced efficiency for Lamar Jackson and the offensive weapons, and little help from the receivers.
Why it should improve: The Ravens had some miserable games as a result of COVID-19 issues, so let’s hope they (and come on, everybody) gets vaccinated to prevent that. And then there’s the arrival of Sammy Watkins, Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace, which could finally buoy the team’s receiver scoring (over the last 15 years, only the Browns, Raiders, 49ers and Titans have scored fewer WR points than the Ravens).
Teams that will put up less fantasy production
Pittsburgh Steelers
2019: 1,084.4 PPR points
2020: 1,535.2
Change: +41.6%
So as it turns out, Ben Roethlisberger — even a 38-year-old, well-past-his-prime version — is better for an offense than the Mason Rudolph/Devlin Hodges combo platter. Add in development for Diontae Johnson and the arrivals of Eric Ebron and (especially) Chase Claypool, and the Steelers rebounded from a miserable offensive 2019 in a big way.
Why it should get worse: Well, Roethlisberger’s 39 now, and we saw him all but disintegrate down the stretch last year. The team has positively sprinted from best line in the league to maybe the worst, stopping over in Mediocreland in 2020. The weaponry is still great, but an ancient clay statue getting attacked 40 times a game is scary.
Buffalo Bills
2019: 1,257.1
2020: 1,707.6
Change: +35.8%
The team had essentially nothing at running back, essentially nothing at tight end. At wide receiver? Woo boy. Having John Brown and Cole Beasley as the 1-2 in some order in 2019 was … eh. Having them as the 2-3 in 2020 behind all-world Stefon Diggs and adding 7-TD rookie Gabriel Davis? That’s what dreams are made of, and it helped Josh Allen go from “subpar quarterback whose legs keep him fantasy relevant” to “heart-eyes emoji.”
Why it should get worse: I can admit I was wrong about Allen while still not believing his 2020 ceiling is his reality. I have to believe the real Allen is good (didn’t see that coming) but not this good. The team hasn’t improved its backfield or its tight end, and swapped out Brown for Emmanuel Sanders (a wash?), so if Allen is anything less than the superstar he was in 2020, regression is inevitable.
Green Bay Packers
2019: 1,449.9
2020: 1,743.7
Change: +20.3%
In our 12-team staff PPR mock draft last summer, I got Aaron Rodgers in the 13th round. He’s currently getting drafted about 6-7 rounds earlier than that, per current Underdog best ball ADP. Along with that, Robert Tonyan went from anonymous to No. 3 fantasy TE, and Davante Adams cemented himself as the league’s No. 1-with-an-exclamation-point receiver.
Why it should get worse: Well, we don’t even know if Rodgers will be in Green Bay come Week 1, and if he’s gone, all bets are off. But even without that, he’s a 37-year-old quarterback who just threw almost as many touchdowns in 2020 alone (48) as he did in 2018 and 2019 combined (51). Rodgers is an all-time great, but expecting him to be that great again is a big ask.
