College Football Best Bets of the Week: Week 9
Walter Waddell
Just when you thought you had your fantasy football starting lineup locked and loaded, another key player goes down. Week 8 is a test of our fantasy resilience, but don’t worry, I’ve got your back (and your flex). My “10 Things” is the key to adapting and overcoming the injury onslaught. We’ll uncover hidden gems, analyze unexpected breakouts, and make sure you’re ready to dominate, no matter who’s on the IR. Let’s do this!
1. This Jet Still Soars with Adams Aboard
Once the inevitable Davante Adams-to-Jets trade finally came to fruition, panic ensued for those who roster Garrett Wilson. While it’s only been one game, his usage in Week 7 should quash any concerns that he’ll lose significant fantasy value. Wilson and Adams tied for the team lead in targets along with… checks notes… Breece Hall? Yep. Breece Hall.
The trio saw nine targets, with Hall the only one to surpass 100 receiving yards. But as far as Wilson goes, it’s a great sign that he was just as involved as Adams. According to FTN StatsHub, Wilson was the only Jets wide receiver to play 100% of the snaps and doubled Adams in both yards per target (6.8 to 3.3) and yards after the catch per reception (7.4 to 3.7). As Adams acclimates to the Jets’ offense, I do think he’ll wind up being the most targeted receiver. But Wilson won’t be far behind, and the extra defensive attention drawn from Adams will offset any lost volume. Wilson will be just fine.
2. Choose Your TE Otton-omously
Even before the unfortunate injuries to wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin (and you could argue Godwin shouldn’t even have been on the field when he got hurt), Cade Otton had emerged as a solid streaming option at tight end.
Per FTN StatsHub, Otton currently has the fourth-most targets at the position with 41, is in the top 10 in receptions with 27, and top 12 in receiving yards with 263. He’s one of just five tight ends to surpass the century mark in a game and already has the highest snap percentage at the position at 87.3%. Godwin is done for the season, and Evans isn’t expected back until after the Bucs’ Week 11 bye. That leaves talented but unproven rookie Jalen McMillan, sophomore Trey Palmer and Sterling Shepard atop the WR depth chart. Expect Baker Mayfield to lean even heavier on Otton and the third-year tight end to set career bests at most, if not all, of his stats. Otton ascends to every week start status considering the state of the position. If he’s on waivers and you don’t have tight end locked down, scoop him up.
3. Green Bay’s Passing Game Loaded with Gouda Options
You’re already starting Jayden Reed, but the rest of the Packer’s receiving corps is far too inconsistent to trust on a weekly basis. This week, however, feel free to fire up every single one. Green Bay has possibly the juiciest matchup possible for fantasy purposes.
According to DVOA-APA, Jacksonville ranks first for quarterback and third for wide receiver matchups. What’s promising for the secondary receivers is the Jags rank as the 12th-best matchup for WR1s but first for WR2s and third for WR3s. Jacksonville is also coming back from two-plus weeks overseas and, oddly enough, isn’t getting a bye to recuperate. If you’re in a pinch due to the overabundance of injuries and need a starter, you could potentially find on waivers, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks are all positioned for productive fantasy weeks.
4. Jones’ing for More? This RB is Serving Up a Fantasy Feast
Aaron Jones is quietly having an RB1 season. He currently sits as roughly the RB12 (depending on format) despite playing one fewer game than a half dozen of the backs ahead of him. His 5.7 yards per carry is tied for seventh in the league, and he sits just outside the top 10 in rushing yards (443). But it’s his involvement in the passing game that’s fueling Jones’ bounceback season.
Per FTN StatsHub, Jones ranks in the top 10 in targets, receptions and receiving yards while sporting a yards per route run of 1.8, tied for third-best among running backs with De’Von Achane. The best part? Jones is gamescript-proof. If the Vikings go up big and lean on the run, he’s the lead back. He can get it done through the air if they’re playing from behind. If he can stay healthy, there’s no reason Jones shouldn’t finish inside the top 10 in fantasy.
5. DJ’s Set is Over: Sell Before the Record Stops
The benching of Bryce Young for Andy Dalton led to a resurrection of Diontae Johnson‘s fantasy value that sadly may already be over. After back-to-back 20-plus-point games in Weeks 3 and 4, Johnson scored fewer than six points in two of his last three games. What’s most disappointing is his failure to take advantage of a fantastic matchup against the Washington Commanders, finishing the game with one catch for 17 yards. Unfortunately for Johnson, things don’t get any easier for him schedule-wise.
According to our DVOA-Adjusted Points Against tool, the Panthers don’t have a favorable matchup for wide receivers until Week 13 against Tampa Bay. Three of their next four opponents rank among the six worst fantasy matchups for wide receivers, with Kansas City and Denver ranking as the two toughest in the league. Add the fact Carolina has a Week 11 bye, and that Young is back under center for at least this week, and it’s time to cut bait. Trade Johnson, even at a discount, before his value completely craters.
6. Bateman Returns: The Hero Fantasy Managers Deserve
Is it time to buy into the Rashod Bateman breakout? To quote Dave Hester from Storage Wars, “Yup!” He’s second on the Ravens with a 14.4% target share and has a matching yards per route run of 2.2 with Zay Flowers.
He’s Lamar Jackson‘s downfield threat with an average depth of target of 14.8 yards, tops on the Ravens and sixth highest in the NFL. I’d prefer to start him as a WR3 or flex, but he’s playable as a low-end WR2 if you can stomach the boom/bust risk.
Start him if you have him this week, as Bateman has the sixth-best WR/CB matchup according to our numbers.
7. Wright Place, Wright Time
Hidden under all the discussion surrounding the return of Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Wright has been the single flake of glitter in the glob of dolphin excrement called Miami’s offense as of late.
Since Week 4, Wright has led the Dolphins running back in nearly every efficiency metric: Yards per carry, avoided tackle percentage, success rate, juke rate… the list goes on and on. His 5.6 yards per carry over that time frame is tied with Jordan Mason for ninth among backs with over 20 carries. Yet Wright is still available in over 80% of Sleeper leagues and 90% of Yahoo leagues. Both Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane have dealt with some form of injury this season. If either were to miss significant time, Wright’s value would skyrocket. There is zero reason he should be so widely available, a bench stash with literal league-winning potential
8. Bench Anthony Richardson Until Further Notice
It’s long overdue for Anthony Richardson to hit fantasy benches, even in superflex. I understand holding out hope due to his rushing upside and the flashes we saw last season. Still, you can’t start a quarterback with a sub-50% completion percentage, a 3:6 touchdown:interception ratio, and just three touchdowns in five starts. The upside is there — you’re not dropping him in superflex, and I don’t mind stashing him in 1QB on the off chance he puts it all together this season. But unless you have no other option, Richardson is unstartable until further notice.
9. Sell High on Mark Andrews
While the fantasy death of Mark Andrews has been highly exaggerated, his resurgence faces the same fate. After a lagging start to the season, Andrews has caught three touchdowns over his last two games and ranks as the TE3 since Week 5. But there’s a problem.
Andrews is still playing under 50% of snaps and averaging 3.7 catches per game over that stretch, per FTN StatsHub. His route percentage ranks behind both Isaiah Likely and running back Justice Hill. That type of touchdown rate is unsustainable with the usage he’s seeing, and as starved as we are as a whole for tight ends for fantasy, the time is now to sell Andrews. I’d prefer Jake Ferguson, Cade Otton and even David Njoku over Andrews for the rest of the season. You’re not going to get elite value out of him, but if someone has bought back even halfway in, you can get solid value for him.
10. Bye Week Trading: A Sneaky Way to Gain an Edge
We’re halfway through the fantasy regular season, and teams are desperate to win now for several reasons. An easy but effective way to take advantage of their panic and shortsightedness is gaining an extra game of production using bye week trades. Plenty of teams have upcoming bye weeks, but a significant chunk have already passed. While in trade negotiations, look to trade away players who have yet to have their bye and acquire players who already have. One of my favorite moves to pull off that’s just a little harder is to take a look at your schedule and try to trade a player to a team whose bye week is the same week you play them. It may seem elementary, but you’d be surprised how many people ignore bye weeks when talking trade. Little edges add up and can make a difference in making the playoffs or playing to avoid a fantasy punishment.
