Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Week 7 of the fantasy football season is here, and honestly, I’m starting to feel like a contestant on Survivor just trying to get through these bye weeks. But that’s what we love about it, right?
My “10 Things” is your guide to navigating the chaos, with insights on breakouts, busts, and those under-the-radar gems. Let’s go!
1. A Buy-Low Workhorse Flying Under the Radar
Despite the bell cow back going the way of the dodo bird, there’s one few are talking about in the NFC North. Josh Jacobs is one of just four running backs with 100 or more rushing attempts, along with Jordan Mason, Derrick Henry and Alvin Kamara. Unsurprisingly, those four are all inside the top 10 in red zone carries. Jacobs has had 14 or more attempts in five of six games and has seen a recent uptick in targets, with 10 over the past three games. While his yards per carry of 4.3 is lacking, there are signs he’s still running the ball reasonably well. Jacobs is tied for third in explosive runs with 12, according to FTN StatsHub. He’s gotten in the end zone just once this season, but that will inevitably correct itself if Jacobs continues to see the volume he has. Scoop him up before it does.
2. Buy High on Seattle’s Best Back
Through his first two seasons, Kenneth Walker III has proven he can produce at the NFL level on the ground. In 2024, he ranks inside the top 10 in avoided tackle rate (29.4%) and has eight red zone carries in four games (missing two due to injury). However, one element that has prevented Walker from elevating to RB1 territory has been involvement in the passing game. That’s no longer the case. Since returning from his two-game absence, Walker has the most receptions (19) and the second-highest targets (21) at the position. He’s seen at least 5 targets in each of his past three games, a number reached a total of four times throughout his first two seasons.
Despite playing in just four games, Walker is tied with Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane for the fourth-most running back receptions. Buying high is a dangerous game that is rarely worth the risk, but Walker is the rare case I’m willing to take.
3. Let Drake Bake: Patriots’ Offense Serving Up Week 7 Streamers
Amid bye weeks and the ever-growing list of injured players, finding viable streamers can feel like a lost cause. But if you’re in a pickle, a few new names have emerged from Foxboro. The switch to rookie quarterback Drake Maye gave the lifeless Patriots offense a semblance of a pulse, throwing three touchdowns in his debut and scoring a season-high 21 points. Next up is a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has been fairly friendly to opposing offenses.
Jacksonville ranks as the best matchup for opposing quarterbacks in DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against, fifth best for running backs and second best for wide receivers (they’re a positive matchup for tight ends as well). Maye is on the streaming radar, as is his favorite target DeMario Douglas. Douglas caught his first touchdown of the season and saw nine targets for shockingly the third time this season. If you’re searching for a warm body to start at tight end, you can do much worse than Hunter Henry. He saw five targets from Maye and caught one of his three touchdowns as well.
4. Black and Fool’s Gold in New Orleans?
New Orleans receivers Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed are both expected to miss their Thursday night matchup with the Broncos. But don’t bother with Bub Means in Week 7. Means came out of nowhere, having just one target on the season, for five catches for 45 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. But rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler is making his second start on a short week up against a Broncos defense that’s becoming one of the league’s best.
Denver ranks as one of the toughest fantasy matchups for both the quarterback and wide receiver positions, according to DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against. Even if you’re desperate for a bye-week fill-in, you can likely do better than Means. Don’t make the common fantasy mistake of chasing last week’s production.
5. Don’t Doubt DK: Buy the Dip
Back-to-back weeks of fewer than double-digit fantasy points from DK Metcalf have flustered many of his fantasy managers. But fear not, as the narrative could have been very easily different. Not once, not twice, but thrice was a Metcalf touchdown reception called back by penalty versus the 49ers. He’s seen 11 or more targets in over half his games, ranks fifth in the NFL with 54 targets, and sixth in air yards per game with 112. Geno Smith had an uncharacteristically low 57.7% completion percentage versus a tough divisional rival. It happens. Players have bad games. But the underlying metrics still scream Metcalf is in for a big season. If you can acquire him at his floor, a WR2 price tag, make the move. The recipe for a top-10 season is still there.
6. Must-Start TE Rising from the Raiders Dumpster Fire
Every offseason, there’s a rookie tight end who’s anointed the next big thing yet inevitably winds up just as disappointing as the final two seasons of Game of Thrones. Brock Bowers, however, appears to be the prince that was promised.
According to FTN StatsHub, Bowers enters Week 7 tied for fourth in receptions at all positions (37) and ranks first in targets, receptions and receiving yards among tight ends. Bowers, unfortunately, has just one touchdown reception, but combined with his 37 catches for 384 receiving yards on 46 targets, he ranks second in fantasy points to George Kittle. With Davante Adams gone, Bowers’ volume isn’t going anywhere. Despite the horrendous state of the Raiders offense, Bowers is locked in as a weekly must-start. He has a realistic shot at finishing the season as the TE1 overall.
7. A Rookie RB Handcuff with League-Winning Potential
Although he saw just four carries and six total touches, Kimani Vidal showed the explosiveness that made him an offseason darling in the fantasy community. Vidal snagged both of his two targets and took one to the house for a 38-yard touchdown reception in Week 6. Don’t let the sub-25% snap percentage deter you. We know J.K. Dobbins‘ injury history, and Gus Edwards is out for at least the next three games while on IR. Vidal is one of the highest-upside handcuffs in fantasy, and not only due to his talent.
According to our NFL Pace Tool, the Chargers run the ball on 52.4% of plays, the third-highest rate in the NFL. Vidal should be rostered in all leagues.
8. The Overlooked Answer to Your Tight End Problems
Every offseason, the “tight end is so deep this year” narrative floats around the interwebz, and every season, it proves to be false. So why isn’t Jake Ferguson getting more attention? He’s top-five at the position in targets and receptions and within 30-ish yards of the top five in receiving yards. He’s on a Cowboys team that lacks playmakers outside of CeeDee Lamb and he’s getting looks in the red zone. If you need a tight end for the long run, see if the Ferguson manager is sleeping on his solid season and attempt to trade for him. They likely have another tight end rostered with Dallas on bye this week. A productive tight end is an easy edge if you can find one worth locking in your lineup every week. Ferguson is just that and being criminally overlooked.
9. Cash Out on Zach Moss While You Still Can
Zach Moss had a couple of firsts in Week 6, but not one he’ll be happy to hear. Week 6 was the first time Moss played less than 50% of snaps this season and the first time he was outsnapped by backfieldmate Chase Brown.
Some of that can be attributed to Moss dealing with a minor ankle injury. But it was the third week in a row he failed to hit 70% of snaps, a mark he saw in two of his first three games. Brown has 20-plus snaps over that same timeframe and taken advantage of extra touches, averaging 18 points in PPR formats. While expecting a 70% snap share (which you can keep up with using our Snap Share Tool) for Moss over the entire season is foolish, the recent play of Brown likely pushes the Bengals’ timeshare closer to 50/50, lowering Moss’s floor and ceiling. I’m looking to trade Moss anywhere I have him rostered.
10. Sutton A Buy Low with Room to Grow
Quietly having a solid season, Courtland Sutton offers a buy-low opportunity for a high-floor wide receiver with some untapped potential. According to our Expected Fantasy Points Tool, Sutton has room to grow. We expect Sutton should have scored 81.8 points so far this season, where the actual total sits at 60.7. Don’t hear what I’m not saying. Sutton’s upside is capped in the Broncos’ offense; there’s no WR1 upside. But with a 22.7% target share and tied for the third-most red zone targets in the league, there’s value to be had. Little wins add up, and acquiring Sutton for cheap is a move that could pay dividends.
