NFL Survivor/Eliminator Picks: Week 13

Last year, the Miami Marlins ended the MLB season on a four-game winning streak. That’s very good! Of course, they were 58-100 at the start of the streak and had long been eliminated from playoff contention, so it didn’t actually matter, but hey, winning games is winning games.

I’m currently on a seven-game winning streak in my NFL Survivor/NFL Eliminator picks. I’m the smartest man alive. Except … I opened the season 2-3, and this is of course a single-elimination game. But hey, maybe you found my advice partway through the season and started tailing me then. If so, good job! Hopefully I can continue to ride the high.

(For the record, I tried to find the single longest winning streak in baseball history by a team that was already eliminated from the playoffs. I didn’t know how to Google it, so I used ChatGPT. It did not go well.)

Which brings us to my NFL Survivor picks for Week 13. As always, I’m starting with all 32 teams and eliminating them bit by bit until I get to my final few contenders and, ultimately, my choice of the week.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 13

No byes this week, so no easy knockoffs. Let’s go straight into our first category.

Thursday/Friday

Thursdays remain weird, even with three games, and Friday having a game also qualifies as weird. I’m just never going to consider teams in the weirdest of spots.

Chicago Bears (@ Detroit)
Dallas Cowboys (vs. NY Giants)
Detroit Lions (vs. Chicago)
Green Bay Packers (vs. Miami)
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Las Vegas)
Las Vegas Raiders (@ Kansas City)
Miami Dolphins (@ Green Bay)
New York Giants (@ Dallas)

That’s eight gone. I should probably be willing to pick from these games, but unless I have to, I just don’t want to. 24 more to go.

They’re Too Bad

Sure, Team No. 31 will beat No. 32 more often than not. But when you’re digging that deep, I’m just not interesting in tying my fate to them.

Carolina Panthers (vs. Tampa Bay)
Cleveland Browns (@ Denver)
Indianapolis Colts (@ New England)
Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Houston)
New England Patriots (vs. Indianapolis)
New Orleans Saints (vs. LA Rams)
New York Jets (vs. Seattle)
Tennessee Titans (@ Washington)

That’s eight more teams, meaning we have 16 left.

Tough Matchups

Just a blanket “Oh, [that team] vs. [that team]? I’m out. Too close in value; not worth the heartache.” There aren’t as many of these this week as last week’s marquee-fest, but it’s still a handy way to do some eliminations.

Arizona Cardinals (@ Minnesota)
Atlanta Falcons (vs. LA Chargers)
Baltimore Ravens (vs. Philadelphia)
Buffalo Bills (vs. San Francisco)
Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh)
Los Angeles Chargers (@ Atlanta)
Minnesota Vikings (vs. Arizona)
Philadelphia Eagles (@ Baltimore)
Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Cincinnati)
San Francisco 49ers (@ Buffalo)

Ten more, and six teams left after my normal eliminations. (By all rights, the Bills are way better than the 49ers, but I’m not quite ready to throw San Francisco being an upper-tier team out altogether. And yes, the Steelers have been way better than the Bengals, but same thing basically — I’m not ready to throw in the towel on Cincinnati.)

The Contenders

After the elimination process, we’re down to six teams:

Denver Broncos (vs. Cleveland)
Houston Texans (@ Jacksonville)
Los Angeles Rams (@ New Orleans)
Seattle Seahawks (@ NY Jets)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Carolina)
Washington Commanders (vs. Tennessee)

An important note for my personal picks: I’ve already burned four of these six teams (Denver, Houston, Seattle, Tampa) in previous weeks. So I’m limited to the Rams or Commanders. But I’m also advising those of you who have not necessarily followed my picks religiously (even though I’m on fire!), so until I get to the actual The Pick section, every team is equal opportunity.

A few notes on these games:

• Four of these six games have spreads of at least 5 points, with the Rams (2.5-point favorites over the Saints) and Seahawks (2-point favorites over the Jets) the exceptions.
• Three of these teams (the Texans, Rams, Commanders) are coming in off of a loss, including the Commanders riding a three-game losing streak). There is no team in my list of contenders better than 7-5 (Broncos, Texans, Commanders), with the Rams and Buccaneers under .500.
• Three of the opponents (the Browns, Saints, Titans) are coming in off a win.
• As I write this sentence, I haven’t settled on my pick yet, but I can tell you now that whoever I land on, it will be the least confident selection I’ve made all season.

The Pick

Each week, you’ll get my No. 1 selection and some honorable mentions.

Washington Commanders (vs. Tennessee)

We have a Commanders team in a quasi-freefall going against a Titans team that has looked better of late and just knocked off the division leaders. But the Commanders are 5.5-point favorites at home, and while yes, they have lost three in a row, one was a one-point loss to the Steelers that the Commanders led until almost the two-minute warning, and the other was last week against the Cowboys when they were an extra point away from possibly forcing overtime. Believe in the full season over the last couple weeks. (But no, I still don’t feel great about it.)

Honorable Mention

Houston Texans (@ Jacksonville) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ Carolina) — if you didn’t use them when I did
Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Las Vegas) — if you didn’t use them when I did and aren’t scared off by it being a Friday game

2024 Record: 9-3

Week 1: Bills (W)
Week 2: Ravens (L)
Week 3: Browns (L)
Week 4: Chiefs (W)
Week 5: Seahawks (L)
Week 6: Texans (W)
Week 7: Bengals (W)
Week 8: Broncos (W)
Week 9: Vikings (W)
Week 10: Chargers (W)
Week 11: Packers (W)
Week 12: Buccaneers (W)
Week 13: Commanders