Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
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NBA’s All-Star weekend looks different this year. The fanfare might be different, the crowd may be thinner, and the festivities not as rocking, but at the end of the day the best players in the league will put their offensive talent on display. I say offensive talent, because the over/under for this game is 314.5 points. We rarely see any regular season games that top a number in the 240s, so needless to say, defense is not going to be a main theme here.
The All-Star Game moved to a new format a few years ago. It is no longer the best from the East vs. the best in the West. Now we choose team captains, and those captains select their teams. Kevin Durant and LeBron James are the two captains this year, with Team LeBron a massive -200 favorite over at Tipico Sportsbook. Team LeBron had first pick and went with Giannis Antetokounmpo. Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry and Nikola Jokic round out Team LeBron’s starting five. Damian Lillard, Ben Simmons, Chris Paul, Jaylen Brown, Paul George, Domantas Sabonis and Rudy Gobert finish up what looks to be a very formidable roster.
Team Durant had to replace its captain for the game with Jayson Tatum sliding in for the injured Durant, but Durant still managed to put his team together first. The projected starting five for Team Durant is top pick Kyrie Irving, with Bradley Beal and Jayson Tatum joining him on the perimeter with Kawhi Leonard and Joel Embiid manning the big guy roles. James Harden, Zach LaVine, Zion Williamson, Julius Randle, Nikola Vucevic, Donovan Mitchell and Mike Conley (who was a late sub for Devin Booker) round out Team Durant.
Tipico does not have a spread on this game, but Team LeBron is a -200 favorite with Team Durant paying +160. You have superstars on both sides, so while Team LeBron is the likely winner, I would not be laying -200 just to win $50 per $100 bet. If you are going to make a wager, this is one where I’m comfortable putting money on a +160 dog when the roster includes names like Harden, Irving, Tatum, Beal and the current MVP frontrunner in Embiid. As for the total, I have never bet an under in an All-Star Game, and I’m not about to start here. This is an exhibition game where COVID-19 rules will be in effect. I doubt we have many defenders within six feet of the offensive players. No one is stepping in to take a charge, you will not see guys challenging for hard fouls at the rim, and you likely see a shot every 10-12 seconds, a much faster pace than a regular season NBA game. You have the most efficient and talented offensive players going up against guys who are not normally used to defending together as a unit. Rotations, double teams and matchups are more important in the regular season when teams are scheming and game-planning. How do you justify double teaming or shading toward any player in this game knowing that you have another option just as deadly that you are leaving open? I know 314.5 points sees like a ridiculous number, but I have more faith in these teams going over that than I do in either of them stepping up enough defensively to feel comfortable taking that under. Overall, this should be a fun day with a lot of amazing athletes showcasing their skills. Take the dog, take the over, and sit back and enjoy the fireworks.
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