MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 7/24)
Josh Gross
Welcome to a playoff edition of One-Play Payday. If you aren’t familiar with “One-Play Payday”, we provide you with one play, whether it be a spread, total or moneyline, that stands out as a rock-solid play on Tipico Sportsbook.
We have a crucial Game 6 of the NBA Finals between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Phoenix Suns with the potential for the Bucks to close out the series and be crowned NBA champions.
Here are how the lines have opened up on Tipico Sportsbook:
Phoenix Suns (+160) @ Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, -200), 221.5
Today’s Tipico OnePlay Payday is:
Khris Middleton OVER 25.5 Points (-120), 2.4u risked to win 2u
The Bucks are on the verge of closing out their first championship since 1971, and Khris Middleton is their closer. As we get deeper and deeper into the series, we have seen Middleton play more minutes and increase his usage. In Game 6 against the Nets, Middleton played 42 minutes, taking 20 shots and getting to the stripe 12 times. In Game 6 against the Hawks, Middleton played 41 minutes, took 22 shots and got to the line eight times. For tonight’s NBA Finals Game 6, Middleton projects for 44 minutes, 24 FGA and 31 points. The minutes and volume are both there to confidently put 2u on Middleton’s over 25.5 where barring a catastrophic shooting performance, Middleton should cover the 25.5 fairly easily. To further justify the 2u play, at -120, Middleton’s implied probability of hitting this prop is 54.55%, I have handicapped the 25.5 at -200, which equates to an implied probability of 66.67%.
Bonus: Bobby Portis OVER 0.5 3PM (-130), 1.3u risked to win 1u
To signify the potential end of the NBA season, I’m adding a bonus One-Play Payday for today. Bobby Portis has hit at least one three-pointer in eight of the last nine games that he has played over 10 minutes. Since being thrown back into the rotation after only playing 5 minutes in Game 2, Portis has played 18, 20 and 19 minutes in each of the last three games. Furthermore, at home, Portis is expected to shoot more efficiently (even though he did not do so in Game 4) with his opportunities. Portis projects for 18 minutes and 1.67 3PM on 3.4 3PA.
To confirm, tonight’s NBA Finals Tipico One-Game Payday(s):
- Khris Middleton OVER 25.5 Points (-120), 2.4u risked to win 2u
- Bobby Portis OVER .5 3PM (-130), 1.3u risked to win 1u
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