Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Summer Games are rolling along and DraftKings has posted some great contest offerings for us to dig into on Friday’s four-game slate. FanDuel will also offer single-game contests for the United States vs. Czech Republic game, which tips off at 8 a.m. ET Saturday. This article will cover the DraftKings slate. I’ll be playing the single-game slate on FanDuel as well, so feel free to ping me in the FTN Daily Discord if you want to discuss.
Throughout the tournament this article will breakdown the upcoming games, give injury updates, projected starting lineups and of course some of our favorite players for the given slate. I’ll be in and out of the FTN Daily NBA Discord channel all day leading up to lock but will be around in the hour prior to the first game starting so don’t hesitate to ping me with questions and I will make sure to get back to you before the games get underway. It should be an exciting two weeks of international hoops, let’s get started.
Men’s international basketball game-by-game breakdown
France (-27.5) vs. Iran — O/U 158.0
In all likelihood, this game is just a formality for the French to wrap up Group A with an undefeated 3-0 record and the Iranians to bow out of the tournament as expected. But there’s a reason we play the games, and to their great credit the Iranians have battled their butts off so far against the Czechs and Americans.
We got a glimpse of how much flatter this French rotation could be in a blowout last time out against the Czechs. Coach Vincent Collet ran out nine players for 11 minutes or more in that one, and with Les Bleus massive favorites against Iran, we could see even more time for players who will take on lesser roles once the knockout stage begins early next week. I still think it’s fine to get to the more well-known names like Evan Fournier ($8.4k), Nando DeColo ($7.9k) and Nicolas Batum ($6.0k) on this slate, but with their expected minutes a bit lower I’ll avoid having more than one of those players in my lineups. We can certainly get some value from this team, and I will be looking to players like Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot ($4.1k), Thomas Heurtel ($3.6k), Guerschon Yabusele ($3.2k) and Vincent Poirier ($3.7k) for value. I will not be rostering Rudy Gobert ($9.9k) at his price on this slate, and if I was running 150 lineups, I would also include Moustapha Fall ($3.3k) in my player pool.
Rostering Iranians remains a tough ask. They once again are projected to have the lowest team total on the slate by a wide margin, and my interest remains in just three players. Hamed Haddadi ($9.0k) has done his best to stay on the court in this tournament. He’s by far the most talented player on this roster, but he’s 36 years old, looks 48 and his listed weight is generous. He really is laboring through these games against much younger, faster and athletic teams. All jokes aside, he’s giving his all for his country and it’s great to watch. If you want to spend up for him, I have no issue with it. I’m likely going to have one Haddadi share in my 20-max build, because a triple-double ceiling is there if the Iranians somehow keep this close into the fourth. Outside of the former Memphis Grizzlies center, I’m sticking with the same two guards I have rostered through the first two Iran games in this tournament. Behnam Yakhchali Dehkordi ($4.7k) and Mohammed Jamshidi Jafarabadi ($3.9k) will get a lot of the remaining opportunity on offense. I prefer the latter for the simple fact it’s tougher to eliminate his offensive threat compared to Yakhchali Dehkordi, who is more of a spot-up shooter compared to Jamshididi Jafarabadi who will be relied on to not just be a scoring threat but create for others at a cheaper price.
Nigeria vs. Italy (-6.5) — O/U 174.5
For having so many NBA-caliber players, the Nigerians haven’t been able to record a win thus far in the group stage. They do remind me of the United States roster a bit, in the sense that they are a collection of players rather than a team, and hopefully for the program they can keep some roster continuity going into the next FIBA World Cup in 2023.
This is a must-win game for Nigeria, who will be eliminated with a loss and need help in the point differential category to advance with a victory. For DFS purposes, my interest begins again with Jordan Nwora ($5.1k). He’ll be highly owned, maybe the highest owned on the slate, but he’s clearly the most talented basketball player on this roster as currently constructed and I’m fine eating the chalk in any format. He’s put up 32 shot attempts in 51 minutes through two games, which is an unrivaled rate in this tournament. Now that his price has come up, I actually have more interest in Precious Achiuwa ($6.7k) than I have in the first two games. He’s been producing at a 1.17 DK-point-per-minute rate but has been limited due to foul trouble and coach Mike Brown’s desire to play a deep rotation. I’m willing to get over the field in GPPs on Achiuwa and cross my fingers that he will stay out of foul trouble and carry me into the green. Other options I’ll have in my MME pool are Gabe Vincent ($5.3k), who has shot terribly and could turn it around today, and KZ Okpala ($3.5k) who made it into last slate’s optimal on the back of five steals. Can’t project that many steals for him today but he’s cheap enough on the slate and active enough on the court to roster today in MME builds. I’m not interested in rostering Miye Oni ($3.3k), who needs to hit his shots at an above-average clip to make value.
The Italians took the Aussies to the wire last game and enter this one as favorites to take second in Group B. Building some lineups this morning, I’m finding myself getting to Nico Mannion ($5.7k) more than I thought I would. After an underwhelming first outing, he got solid minutes and produced well against a much tougher Australian team. With mid-range value becoming much scarcer on this slate, Mannion is a solid option. If you want to roster Danilo Gallinari ($8.3k), be my guest. I won’t full fade him, but the lack of peripherals and the uncertainly of his usage are red flags. I could see this athletic Nigerian frontcourt giving him some issues. I’m still standing my ground against rostering Simone Fontecchio ($7.1k), whose price continues to rise on the back of 57% shooting. There’s a trio of Italians remaining, Nicolo Melli ($5.4k), Stefano Tonut ($5.0k) and Achille Polonara ($4.9k), who I am willing to roster in my 20-max build and would certainly include in any MME build larger than mine. I think Polonara will be the lowest owned of the three and my favorite to roster, especially if he gets another start.
Germany vs. Australia (-8.5) — O/U 171.5
It’s a shame this game will take place in the dead of night, a timeslot I have not stayed up for throughout the group stage. The Germans can solidify a place in the knockout round with a win and will be on the precipice of elimination with a loss. Australia is through to the next round and is only playing for seeding purposes. They will still attack this game to make sure they get a spot in the top four, who will go into a random draw against seeds five through eight at the conclusion of the group stage to determine the bracket.
The most productive player from a fantasy perspective in this tournament (who has played double-digit minutes) is Mo Wagner ($8.7k). He’s averaging 1.46 DK points per minute, and while I don’t expect we see that rate continue, he’s still an intriguing GPP play at what should be low ownership. I’ll have at least one share in my MME build. I have increased interest in rostering some more modestly priced Germans like Maodo Lo ($7.4k), Johannes Voigtmann ($6.1k) or Isaac Bonga ($5.2k). The latter is quite intriguing given his high ownership on the last slate, his subsequent let down and the field’s propensity to run away from good plays on a small sample size. Bonga won’t break the slate, but he’s a nice pivot off the other center options, especially the ones on the other side of this game. Lo is a great option at a discount price for a top guard on the slate and I expect Voigtmann to middle his two outputs he’s produced in this tournament. If Wagner ends up in foul trouble again, look for Voigtmann to eclipse 30 DK points again. If you want to take shots on the sharpshooting Andreas Obst ($3.9k) or one of the German rotation bigs like Johannes Thiemann ($3.6k) or Danilo Barthel ($3.1k) they are acceptable values in GPP.
Aron Baynes has been ruled out for the remainder of the tournament. The Boomers prices remain stable, and in one of the closer spreads of the night, also remain some of the top plays on the slate. I won’t do Patty Mills ($10.1k)roll call again, but if you don’t know already, it’s International Patty season and he’s fine to play in any format. I think Joe Ingles ($9.2k) is going to outscore Mills at some point in this tournament, and if you’re on him when he does, you’ll have a leg up on the field. I’m fine to stack the two Aussie stars together. I mentioned in the previous paragraph about centers on this team, and I once again have them in the same order of preference, Jock Landale ($4.8k) and Nic Kay ($4.5k). Their size should be required against the German frontcourt with minutes similar to the Italy game rather than the Nigeria game. You can also roster Matisse Thybulle ($8.0k) or Dante Exum ($5.1k) in GPPs, and I’ll end up with more of the latter because of the salary savings.
Czech Republic vs. USA (-23.5) — O/U 183.5
Somewhat mercifully, the group stage comes to an end Saturday morning for the Americans. I’ve been plenty vocal about my thoughts on the criticism of players and staff being over the top throughout the exhibitions and loss to France in the opening game of this tournament. Of course, the United States was supposed to beat Iran by 40, but their 54-point victory was the fifth-largest American Olympic win since 1992. Let’s wait until the tournament is over to judge this edition of USA Basketball. I think there will be a large portion of people needing to apologize for their reactionary takes over the last few weeks when all is said and done. This game still has big implications for the next round, as the United States can likely clinch a top four seed with a win and still make the five through eight seeds with a loss, while the Czechs are likely relegated to the five through eight range regardless of the outcome.
After struggling to put away Iran down the stretch in their first game and getting handled easily by the French, the Czech Republic will have to put together their best effort yet to compete in this one. Their top two players, Tomas Satoransky ($8.1k) and Jan Vesely ($7.0k), remain very strong DFS plays, but I won’t be stacking the two unless I’m doing a full game stack and expecting things to remain tight. The only other option I will roster is Ondrej Balvin ($4.5k) who bounced back in a big way fantasy-wise against the French. The rest of this roster is not priced very advantageously, and I will tip my cap to someone who beats me in GPPs tonight with a Patrik Auda ($5.5k) or Blake Schilb ($4.6k) lineup.
The Americans are still very tough to roster. None of them are priced too cheap and my two favorite spend-ups from the red, white and blue remain Kevin Durant ($10.2k) and Damian Lillard ($10.5k). I greatly prefer Durant in this one, and Jrue Holiday ($8.9k) comes close to being a preferential play over Lillard in my build after breaking into the starting lineup last game. Devin Booker ($8.2k) also got the start against Iran, and if he starts again then I’ll have some interest. You can go back to Bam Adebayo ($7.8k) but he’s far from my favorite center. If this game remains close, he should be a fine play. If you think it blows out early, then I have no issue if you want to take a shot on JaVale McGee ($3.1k) in MME builds.
Projected starters
France: Nando DeColo, Evan Fournier, Nic Batum, Guerschon Yabusele, Rudy Gobert
Iran: Mohammed Jamshidi Jarfarabadi, Behnam Yakhchali Dehkordi, Mohammed Nik Khahahrami, Arsalan Kazemi, Hamed Haddadi
Nigeria: Josh Okogie, Gabe Vincent, Miye Oni, KZ Okpala, Precious Achiuwa
Italy: Nico Mannion, Stefano Tonut, Simone Fontecchio, Achille Polonara, Nicolo Melli
Germany: Andreas Obst, Isaac Bonga, Niels Giffey, Danilo Barthel, Johannes Voigtmann
Australia: Matthew Dellavedova, Patty Mills, Joe Ingles, Jock Landale, Aron Baynes
Czech Republic: Tomas Satoransky, Patrick Auda, Jaromir Bohacik, Jan Vesely, Ondrej Balvin
United States: Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Bam Adebayo
