NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/6)

Welcome to Hoops with Noops! We’re into the second round of the NBA playoffs and things have already gotten interesting. The Denver Nuggets, the favorite to win the Western Conference, lost at home to the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 1 of their series. Is this the beginning of Anthony Edwards’ climb to greatness and the end of Nikola Jokic? Or is it just one game in what should be a long series?

The New York Knicks won the most exciting series of the first round and look likely to make the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since the 1999-2000 season. Can the Pacers stop them? There’s a lot to unpack, so let’s go through both games, see what might happen and try to find some value in the betting markets. Of course, since it’s Monday you can watch a video version of Hoops with Noops on the FTN Network YouTube channel. If you have any questions about something I missed or bets of your own, leave them in the comments section of that video and I’ll reply there. Now, on to the hoops!

Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks

Current Line – Knicks -5.5, 217.5
My Projection – Knicks 112, Pacers 105
Key Injuries – Tyrese Haliburton is questionable.

The Indiana Pacers just won their first playoff series since the 2013-2014 season. It was a messy series against a Bucks team that was without Giannis Antetokounmpo and only had Damian Lillard for a few games. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner played some of their best basketball, while Tyrese Haliburton was able to play well in big moments despite struggling for most of the series. I’m happy for a young team to find success in what is the first playoff series for most of the team, but I’m not impressed with how they played. Milwaukee’s roster was in terrible shape, and Indiana had the much better team for most of the series. The Pacers outscored the Bucks by just 17 points over the six-game series. Unless Haliburton can return to his early-season form, there might not be many more games left for Indiana.

The New York Knicks played the same kind of physical, aggressive basketball we saw from them all season. They beat the Philadelphia 76ers by owning the glass, forcing turnovers and generally swarming their opponents for 48 minutes. There is not a lot of NBA postseason experience in New York’s locker room, but there is at least some, and several players have championship experience from college. It’s a team that knows what it is, what it wants to do and has been playing with this level of effort for the entire season. Jalen Brunson will eventually need some help on offense, but he has carried the team so far, and there’s no reason to expect that to stop. The Knicks have the best player and are playing better basketball than the Pacers. I like their chances in this series.

Both teams have been off since Thursday and should be rested and ready to play. The Knicks were four-point favorites at home against the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 5 and were close to that number in Games 1 and 2 at home. With Haliburton having back spasms, the market has set the spread at 5.5 for tonight’s game. So, are the Pacers really only 1.5-points worse than the 76ers with Haliburton? It certainly would be a much bigger adjustment if Haliburton couldn’t play. I make the Knicks seven-point favorites, which is a little deeper than the current odds but not a big enough edge to bet. I like New York in this series and have backed the Knicks to win it, but I don’t see enough value in betting on them tonight.

Bets – None

Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets

Current Line – Nuggets -6.5, 208
My Projection – Nuggets 107, Timberwolves 102
Key Injuries – Jamal Murray and Rudy Gobert are questionable.

Game 1 went to the underdog Minnesota Timberwolves. They shot 52% from the field and 40% from three-point range. It was close, and Minnesota was able to win the late possessions and ultimately the game. Nikola Jokic played one of his worst games in a while, making only 11-of-25 shots to go with seven turnovers. The Timberwolves did a good job of not letting Jokic bring the ball up the court without being pressed. That slowed down the Nuggets attack and kept Jokic from getting into his normal rhythm. Anthony Edwards played like one of the best players in the league and was particularly impressive late in the game. Rudy Gobert was great on defense, and Naz Reid popped late in the game to help the Timberwolves pull away in the fourth quarter. It was strange to see the Nuggets play so poorly at home and even stranger that they were not able to win the game late. Minnesota struck an important first blow and now Denver has close to a must-win game tonight.

The Nuggets closed as 4.5-point favorites in Game 1 with a total of 210. The spread has moved two points in their favor today. I think that is mostly due to the chance that Gobert might not be able to play because his first child is due to be born at any moment. Congratulations to Gobert and his family, but this would be a big loss for the Timberwolves. He is the key to their league-leading defense, and we saw how valuable he was in the first matchup. Gobert can guard Jokic one-on-one but is also very effective playing off Jokic in a “safety” role that allows him to roam around looking to create havoc. Without Gobert, expect Jokic to have a great game and the Nuggets to get back to scoring efficiently. This also has a big impact on the total, which has dropped from Game 1 but has been moving up all afternoon and will get back to 210, if not higher, if Gobert can’t play.

With Gobert, I make the Nuggets five-point favorites and make them eight-point favorites without him. That puts me pretty close to the market now and probably close to the market if/when Gobert is announced in/out for tonight’s game. I’m fairly close to the total and don’t have an edge now, but I might bet an over if Gobert can’t play. Keep an eye on the FTNBets Discord for that wager if/when I do make it. The bet I’m making for now is on the Nuggets in the first quarter. With a season’s worth of data, books have what they need to make sharp full game lines. Instead of looking at those markets, you can find value in derivatives. Denver was the best first-quarter team against the spread. Minnesota was one of the worst, and you saw that play out in Game 1. I make the Nuggets 3.5-point favorites in the first 12 minutes, and we get a chance to bet them at -2 points. Let’s do it.

Bets

Denver Nuggets First Quarter Spread -2 (-115, DraftKings)