Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Monday 5/6)

Los Angeles Angels @ Pittsburgh Pirates

We’re looking for our third straight win, as our first two writeups cashed. We’re headed to Pittsburgh where the Pirates and Angels begin a three-game set at PNC Park. The Pirates opened as a -135 favorite, and the line has moved almost 30 cents in their favor. I don’t like making a habit of chasing steam and betting a number that has moved this much, but I’m making an exception here.

Mitch Keller is on the bump for the Bucos, with an ERA (5.18), a full run higher than his FIP (4.18). The 28-year-old should be in line for some positive regression. His opponent, lefty Tyler Anderson, is on the other end of the regression monster – posting an ERA (2.23) more than 2.5 runs better than his FIP (4.78). The Pirates offense has a 110 wRC+ against lefties this year, ranking 11th best in MLB. Ron Washington’s Halos have been playing better ball as of late but still sit 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 96. The FTN Model has the Pirates beating the Angels 4.5 – 3.6. We’re taking the Pirates moneyline as our first leg of our SGP.

Our second leg is Mitch Keller over 4.5 strikeouts, teased down from 5.5. Keller has posted a pedestrian K% through his first seven outings this season of 21.8%, but this matchup should boost that figure. The Angels carry the seventh-highest strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season at 24.6%. Over the last two weeks, LA has increased their K percentage to 26.5%, good enough for sixth-best. The FTN Strikeout Model has Mitch Keller projected for 5.73 punchouts.