Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to Hoops with Noops: Playoff Series Edition! The NBA postseason is finally here, and that brings another opportunity to find value in the betting markets. Not only do we have games to bet on, but also series prices, series props, and other futures.
The betting menus are big, which means there is more opportunity to make some good wagers. Let’s dive into this series by looking at the season’s head-to-head matchups, review key injuries that require our attention, and pick a winner and place some bets.
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Milwaukee Bucks (3) vs. Indiana Pacers (6)
Season Head-to-Head Matchups
Key Injuries to Watch
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Most recently, Giannis Antetokounmpo strained his calf, and before that he was dealing with a sore hamstring. We’ve seen Giannis heal more quickly than the average player, but he’s struggled with that hamstring and his back all year. I don’t think we’ll see him for the first game of the series, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he missed a handful of games.
Damian Lillard
Damian Lillard has been playing but listed as questionable with an adductor strain. I expect him to play the entire series barring something new.
Jalen Smith
Obi Toppin
Both are dealing with ankle strains, and although Jalen Smith and Obi Toppin are not star players, they are key contributors at the same position for Indiana. Losing both leaves the Pacers thin in the frontcourt against a big Milwaukee Bucks team. I think at least one will play each game but look for Indiana to struggle inside and on the boards if both players miss the same games.
Who’s Going to Win the Series?
Series Price: Bucks -225/Pacers +180
So, when is Giannis Antetokounmpo going to be back on the court? A calf strain can heal quickly but if not healed totally, can easily be reaggravated and make other muscles more vulnerable to injury. The current spread for Game 1 would suggest the market is unsure but thinks Giannis is more likely to miss that game than to play in it. I expect him to miss Game 1 and at less than 100% if he plays Game 2. That dynamic favors the Pacers early in the series and sets up a chance to buy back on the Bucks later in the series if/when Giannis is healthy.
As you can see in the head-to-head above, Indiana was 4-1 straight up against Milwaukee despite being an underdog in every game by an average of 4.8 points. The Bucks have struggled to defend good guards all season and there are few guards better than Tyrese Haliburton. The Pacers are a different team since these two teams last played, but still a very good one. They have the fourth-best net rating since the All-Star break and have beaten several great teams. I think Indiana can keep this series close if Giannis is playing and I think Indiana can win this series if Giannis misses too much time.
So, how should we bet on the Pacers? The series price at +180 is a perfectly good wager but I think there are better bets on the board. Indiana -1.5 games in the series is +275. The Pacers can cover that spread by winning the series at home in game 6 or sooner. As I mentioned, Indiana needs Giannis to miss time to win this series which means if they’ll win early and close the series out before game 7.
Of course, Giannis might be an alien and seems to heal faster than most other players. If he can be back even as late as game 3 then Milwaukee can win the series. There is a market called “To Win Game (X) and Series Double,” which offers Pacers win Game 1/Bucks win the series at +330. This is a good bet if Giannis plays Game 1 at less than 100%, a good bet if he comes back for Game 3, and a great bet if Giannis comes back for Game 2.
Bets
- Indiana Pacers Series Spread -1.5 Games (+275, Caesars), 1U
- Indiana Pacers Win Game 1, Milwaukee Bucks Win the Series (+330), 1U
