Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The NBA playoffs roll on with three games Tuesday. The Hawks and Celtics kick it off with their second game, followed by the Knicks and Cavs in the East. Out in the Western Conference, the Suns and Clippers will have their second matchup of the playoffs in the nightcap.
The FTN Betting Model has been hot with these playoff unders, and it makes a lot of sense. Teams play at a slower pace, protect their possessions more, and also tighten up the defense. Keep this in mind when you make your prop bets as well. It makes little sense to be betting scoring overs in games we project to go under. It also makes some sense to bet rebound overs as there is some correlation to more missed shots, which keeps totals low as well. After the initial look at the board and a first run of our FTN NBA projections, here are my three favorite bets for the day.
Best NBA Points Prop Bet
Jarrett Allen Over 13.5 Points
The Cavaliers lost the first matchup against the Knicks, but this is one of my favorite things to do in the playoff series. When a favorite loses Game 1, expect them to bounce back in Game 2. If that is the case here as expected, it should lead to more scoring for the Cavs. Jarrett Allen has gone over this number in his last two games against the Knicks and is averaging right around that number against them for the 2022-23 season so far. Rotations are shortened during the playoffs and Allen saw a bump up to 40 minutes last game. I expect that trend to continue, along with his bump in scoring against what has been a beatable interior defense for the Knicks.
Best NBA Rebound Prop Bet
Deandre Ayton Under 10.5 Rebounds
Deandre Ayton is the big stud in the middle for the Suns, but he has not looked dominant on the glass yet this year vs. the Clippers. Ayton had just 6 and 8 rebounds in the two regular season games and followed that up with 8 in the first playoff matchup against them. That means he averages just 7.33 rebounds against the Clippers in 2022-23. Ayton under on rebounds is one of our biggest edges. It got hammered to the under, which makes sense as it is one of our bigger edges on the day.
Best NBA Steals Prop Bet
Marcus Smart Over 1.5 Steals
Marcus Smart is one of the best lockdown defenders in the NBA. He has the Defensive Player of the Year hardware to prove it. Smart had three steals in the opening game and should continue to be able to cause havoc on guys like Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. The Hawks backcourt duo account for much of that offense, with the other guys on the floor (John Collins, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter) needing the guards to create offense for them. Many times that works out well, but it also puts the ball in their hands a lot, which can lead to more turnovers.
