NBA Game of the Day, 1/31: Bucks vs. Spurs

Happy Friday! We’ve made it to the end of the week, and our reward is a matchup between Victor Wembanyama and Giannis Antetokounmpo. As a human being, I find it hard to believe that I am the same species as those two individuals. Wemby and Giannis are both tall, long and still incredible athletes.

It’s rare that a 7-footer can move quickly, pass well, and shoot well and this game features two such people. Giannis was just a 6-foot-8 raw athlete from Greece when he was drafted. He shot up to his official height of 6-11 but often stands over players listed at 7-0. He’s worked tirelessly to improve his game and has grown into an NBA Finals MVP and regular season MVP candidate every year.

Wembanyama is at the beginning of his career and has already shown a level of skill above and beyond anyone of his size at his age. There are a finite number of chances that we’ll get to see them play one another, and every one of those games should be appointment viewing. I’m excited to watch this game, but I’m also looking forward to betting it. Here’s where I see some good edges for us to attack.

NBA Game of the Day: Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs

Current Line – Bucks -2, 235.5
My Projection – Bucks 120, Spurs 115
Key Injuries – Bobby Portis is out.

Milwaukee Bucks -2

(-105, Caesars)

The Spurs have exceeded expectations this season. Victor Wembanyama and the young roster around him were expected to be better than last season, but not a close-to-.500 team that could make the Play-In Tournament. They’re ahead of schedule to become a great team, and things are likely to accelerate if (when?) they acquire De’Aaron Fox. That’s all good and well, but it doesn’t help them here. The Spurs have had a bad couple of weeks of performances, and it doesn’t appear that the betting markets have adjusted their power rating down yet. They’ve won just one of their last six games and just two of their last 10. The NBA season is a slog, and it’s hard for younger players to know how to handle the doldrums. We are close the All-Star break, and just like every season before this one, we’ve seen teams with few veterans struggle. Players are looking ahead to the break and that little bit of distraction often harms their performance. I’m still very excited about this team’s potential in the future and even later this season, but for the next few weeks, I’ll be looking to fade the Spurs.

The Bucks are rounding into form. After starting the season 2-8, they’ve gotten healthy, won the NBA Cup and are 24-11 in their last 35 games. It is the end of a long road trip, but they’ve had two days to rest and prepare for the Spurs. There should also be added motivation since their last game was a loss to the Portland Trail Blazers. Damian Lillard looks the best he has since joining Milwaukee, Khris Middleton is getting better each game, and Giannis Antetokounmpo would be an MVP candidate in almost any other season. They match up well with the Spurs. Giannis and Brook Lopez can both handle Wemby’s size and be able to guard him beyond the arc. The Bucks tend to struggle against great guards, and with all due respect to professional basketball players, the Spurs don’t have a guard that can take advantage of the matchup. I make Milwaukee five-point favorites, and the current spread is just two. This looks like a great spot to back the short, road favorite and I’m doing just that.

Looking into player props, our NBA Prop Tool at FTN is showing some nice edges on this event, and there is one in particular I like a lot.

Brook Lopez Under 0.5 Steals

(-105, Caesars/BetRivers)

If you’ve never bet under 0.5 steals, blocks, made threes, or really anything, well, you really have never lived. These bets can be an incredible sweat, but that’s just the cherry on top of a sundae full of expected value. Brook Lopez is a great defender, but being a great defender doesn’t mean forcing turnovers. Lopez has had a steal in just 19 of 44 games this season, 43%, and in just six of his last 17 games, 26%. Our model at FTN projects Lopez to have 0.44 steals and would price this at deeper than -175. At -105 or better, we’re looking at an EV of over 25%. This bet will not only be fun to monitor but also a wager of great expected value.

You can see all my picks and my record in the FTN Bet Tracker. If you have any questions about other games, drop them in the #nba-betting channel of the FTN Discord and tag me @noopschristenson. I’ll be sure to get back to you ASAP.