Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
We have seven games on tap around the NBA Saturday with three of them carrying spreads of 10 points or more, making it extremely important to try and avoid the DFS landmines that can result from blowouts.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Wizards at Pacers preview
WAS -3.5, total: 248
Russell Westbrook finally got his price hike on DraftKings … rising $100 to $11,100. He’s still $1,000 too cheap on this slate, and to make matters even more enticing, he’s topped 80 DraftKings points in both of his games against the Pacers this season. He draws arguably the best matchup on the board regardless of whether Malcolm Brogdon plays, making him the easy choice for your spend-up. If fading Westbrook, Bradley Beal makes sense as he continues to chase the scoring title (currently 0.5 points per game back of Stephen Curry). He doesn’t carry nearly the ceiling that Westbrook does, but he has a great floor in a game with a 248-point total.
Outside of those two, it’s difficult to get to any Wizards with their entire rotation healthy outside of the longstanding injuries of Thomas Bryant and Deni Avdija. Davis Bertans would be the next option at $3,900, but his minutes are still a bit lucrative off of the bench.
Brogdon is questionable once again for the Pacers. If he’s out, it gets easy to justify Domantas Sabonis. Over his last four games without Brogdon, he’s averaged 26.3 points, 14.8 rebounds, 10.0 assists and 1.8 steals per game. Based on the production, his $10,500 price tag could be deemed a value. If Brogdon plays, both are strong plays, though Sabonis’ price tag would be more difficult to justify.
Caris LeVert is a viable option if Brogdon is out as well, as he’d continue to soak up the touches in the backcourt. Similar to Sabonis, however, his $9,100 price tag gets difficult to swallow if Brogdon is in. T.J. McConnell is the other piece that I want exposure to if Brogdon is out. He posted 40.75 DK points last game against the Wizards in 31 minutes and he’s the type of player who thrives in fast-paced games with no defense, as it caters to his ability to rack up stocks.
Pistons at Sixers preview
PHI -10.5, total: 220.5
There are three games on this slate with a spread of more than 10 points, this being one of them. That said, I do think there’s a chance that we see one or multiple of the Sixers’ big three rest on the second leg of the back-to-back, especially with Joel Embiid questionable Friday night (he ultimately played). If that becomes the case, whoever is active of the big three would be an elite option in this matchup with a brutal defensive unit. If all three are active, it’s hard to justify them given the fact that this game could be over by halftime. Of the three, Embiid would be the priority in tournaments if forcing one in.
The Pistons are slated to be without Josh Jackson and Hamidou Diallo, while Jerami Grant and Cory Joseph are listed as questionable. Grant, however, is also expected to play. This eliminates the infamous Isaiah Stewart as a viable option, as his $6,600 price tag is incredibly hard to justify if he isn’t going to get starters’ minutes. Frankly, this eliminates just about the entire team from consideration seeing that their guard rotation will swell back to three or four options, while the return of Grant will put a massive dent into Saddiq Bey’s upside. If going anywhere on Detroit, Grant has the most upside for his sub-$7k price.
Grizzlies at Raptors preview
MEM -5, total: 227
The Grizzlies come in as five-point favorites in this game; based on the Raptors’ injury report, that might be a bit generous in favor of the Raptors. Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, OG Anunoby and Chris Boucher are all out, making this a chance for Pascal Siakam to soak up a massive amount of volume. He has two 70-DraftKings-point outings over the course of his last three games and his $9,000 price tag feels just right, making him an ultra-strong play.
If looking for other exposure to this Raptors team, Gary Trent and Malachi Flynn are likely the best bets. Trent caters more toward tournament players, as his volume-dependent play style still gives him a low floor despite the absences, but the path to a ceiling is clear with 30-shot upside in this game. Flynn is the better cash option, as he’s averaged over 36 DraftKings and FanDuel points per game across the seven games with Lowry and VanVleet out this season. For what it’s worth, that’s a 151% increase compared to his season average of 14.58 DraftKings points per game. DeAndre' Bembry could also find himself in the starting lineup and while he’s a rather boring option, he’s proven to be a viable per-minute producer when given the playing time. At $3,500, he makes sense as a value play. Khem Birch also remains viable for $6,100, though he won’t benefit as much as the others from the guards being out, he simply draws a matchup against a frontcourt that has bled production to centers over the last handful of weeks.
This is a more exploitable matchup for the Grizzlies with Toronto’s guards out, as both are exceptional defenders. Ja Morant sees the biggest boost here, but $8,400 is a price tag where I’m a bit weary considering his floor. I would simply rather find $600 and get up to Siakam on the other side of this game. Jonas Valanciunas’ price is easier to stomach ($7,900), but even then, there are options elsewhere that are more appealing. He’s still viable in tournaments, however, given his astronomical upside.
With Grayson Allen out, both Desmond Bane and De'Anthony Melton should continue to see an uptick in upside, but Bane has been the safer bet in terms of minutes. He’s not the greatest per-minute producer, but he has topped 30 DraftKings points in two of his last three games, showcasing some upside.
Thunder at Warriors preview
GSW -14.5, total: 223.5
We saw this same matchup two days ago, resulting in a 118-97 win for the Warriors. Based on the projected game environment, a similar result feels appropriate here.
Stephen Curry has scored at least 30 raw points in 16 of his last 18 games, putting up arguably the hottest scoring stretch of any player this season. If this game gets out of hand in favor of the Warriors, he’s going to be the reason. He’s an elite pivot off of Westbrook given the fact that he should carry a very small amount of ownership. Both Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins are viable here, but this isn’t a spot where you necessarily need to go crazy with your Warriors exposure.
Kent Bazemore and Juan Toscano-Anderson are the other two I have on my radar. Bazemore should continue to start for the injured Kelly Oubre, making his $5,700 price tag a perfectly viable one, while Toscano-Anderson should get minutes regardless of the game script, but comes in as one of the more blowout-proof options.
I have virtually zero interest in the Thunder here. They’re in full tank mode, making it hard to predict their rotations. Luguentz Dort is currently questionable and while he’s played the last two games, he’s seen under 30 minutes in each of them as they embrace the tank. Kenrich Williams could be a candidate for run if Dort is out, but he’s been the recipient of a handful of DNP-CDs as of late, making him too risky to trust. The “too risky to trust” piece of that sentence perfectly describes the team as a whole. There are simply better options elsewhere on the slate.
Spurs at Blazers preview
POR -5, total: 231
The Spurs come into this game relatively healthy aside from Derrick White’s absence, making them rather straightforward to break down in an exploitable matchup. Because of how wacky the rotations can get, I feel comfortable sticking to the reliable options in Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan here. Murray is the priority, as he should thrive on both ends of the court against Damian Lillard and has posted three games over 37 DK points over his last five contests. Assuming he gets a full allotment of minutes here, he’s an ultra-strong tournament option that should come with minimal ownership. DeRozan feels like an incredibly safe 40 DK points slate in and slate out and as long as he’s active on Saturday (since it’s the second leg of a back-to-back), that should be the case once again.
For the Blazers, Lillard has gone playoff mode already, notching 50 or more DraftKings points in five straight games. Over that span, he’s averaged 32.2 points, 9.2 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. While Lillard is a strong play here, this isn’t necessarily a spot where I feel the need to hedge with exposure to CJ McCollum or Norman Powell if you don’t play Lillard. Both are fine plays in tournaments, but I prefer just chasing the upside with Lillard if getting exposure to the Blazers.
Rockets at Jazz preview
UTA -14.5, total: 227
The Rockets come into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back and remain extremely beat up, as they had 13 total players on the injury report Friday with eight active, and we could see a similar situation Saturday.
Because of this, it makes sense to stick to the ones we know will be active, as someone like Kevin Porter could potentially play but still wouldn’t be the strongest play in this matchup on a slate ripe with options. If Christian Wood and Porter are out again, it’s going to be hard to not default right back to Kenyon Martin and Anthony Lamb. Martin has posted back-to-back monster games, averaging 24.5 points, 8.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and one block in 41.5 minutes per game over his last two. Lamb, on the other hand, comes in $1,200 cheaper on DraftKings and has topped 27 DK points in back-to-back games. While not the mammoth outcomes that Martin has provided, that’s more than serviceable at $4,100.
Kelly Olynyk would also be viable given the number of ceiling games he continues to produce. He’s topped 48 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games and while $8,600 is sure to instill some sticker shock, he’s an elite tournament play against Rudy Gobert, who should struggle to defend Olynyk as soon as he steps out of the paint.
As for the Jazz, you can get away with Joe Ingles, Jordan Clarkson and Rudy Gobert here given the matchup, but all three are priced up to the point where they’ll need ceiling games to pay off. While that’s certainly possible given the matchup, that’s not a risk that I’m totally comfortable with when I feel better about so many options elsewhere.
Nets at Nuggets preview
BKN -4, total: 231.5
While there are so many other great options on the slate, it’s going to be hard for me to not save at least one spot in my lineup for a piece or two from this game. Both teams have struggled on the defensive end and given the injuries to each team, have usage funneling through a select few players.
Both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have finally eclipsed the $10,000 mark on DraftKings and while both can still be considered underpriced, they’re not as necessary on this slate as they have been on slates past. Between the two, Durant is still my preference. If looking elsewhere on Brooklyn, this could be a spot where we see 25-30 minutes out of DeAndre Jordan given the size of Nikola Jokic on the other side of this game. For $3,800, he makes for one of the best per-dollar options at the center position assuming he draws the start.
I have more interest in the Denver side of this game, as the Nets defense has been one to attack all season. Nikola Jokic should have an absolute field day and is the sole reason that I am not 100% locking Russell Westbrook into every lineup on this slate. He’s topped 55 DraftKings points in four straight games and given the lack of size and defensive ability in the post for Brooklyn, a ceiling game could very well be in order.
If fading Jokic, I love the idea of hedging with Michael Porter. He will likely draw a lot of Durant on the defensive side which isn’t to be taken lightly, but he’s posted a usage rate over 25% and 1.18 DKP/min over the last two weeks, a mark that’s over 0.10 DK points per minute more than his season average. Both Facundo Campazzo and Austin Rivers are extremely viable on Saturday as well, as they should continue to soak up minutes with Jamal Murray, Monte Morris, Will Barton and PJ Dozier out. Campazzo is the cash-game play, while Rivers is better left alone for GPPs.
