Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
After a plethora of three- and four-game slates, Monday scales things back in the NBA for Memorial Day, as we only have two games on the NBA DFS playoff slate.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given the news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Sixers at Wizards preview
PHI -8.5, total: 230
The first game of the slate comes in as a close-out game for the Sixers, who are a game away from sweeping the Wizards.
Joel Embiid finally had his “breakout” in Game 3, totaling 36 points in 28 minutes to go along with eight boards, three steals and a pair of assists. He showed the ability to get it done in a limited number of minutes and with that being the only real concern with Embiid in this game, he makes for a perfectly viable spend-up at $9,500 on a two-game slate.
Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris round out the big three for the Sixers. Both remain far too cheap for their ceilings and while they have the potential to see a cap on their minutes in a blowout, they should be a bit safer than Embiid in that regard. Both are viable here, but the discount on Harris has him taking priority between the two. Outside of the big three, Danny Green, Seth Curry, and George Hill make the most sense in terms of value. If you are scripting this game to blow out and for the Wizards to essentially mail it in, then you could make the case for Tyrese Maxey, Shake Milton, or Matisse Thybulle.
On the Wizards’ side, Russell Westbrook is still on the injury report, but there’s about as low of a chance that he sits as you can get. Even so, he’s better left for MME formats in tournaments at best, even on a two-game slate. While he comes with an astronomical ceiling, there are far more ways he can fail in this matchup than paths to said ceiling, while his salary really restricts the rest of your lineup. I would rather default to Bradley Beal, whose $9,100 price tag is still too cheap given the fact that he’s averaging over 25 shots per game in the series while adding a respectable number of peripherals.
If Ish Smith cannot suit up, Raul Neto will carry a heap of value on a two-game slate, as he would likely pick up the majority of Smith’s minutes regardless of whether or not he starts. Davis Bertans could draw a second consecutive start, but he’s only worth considering if Westbrook is active, as he’s not a player known for creating his own shot, relying more on Westbrook collapsing the defense to garner his open looks. Rui Hachimura would be the other primary beneficiary in the off-chance that Westbrook sits, as he would soak up a heap of volume.
The only other option on the Wizards who I have an interest in is Daniel Gafford. He’s established himself as the safest option in the center rotation and also happens to be the one most immune to game script, ruling out a blowout as a reason to fade him. The blowout would actually be the best thing that could happen for his fantasy upside.
Jazz at Grizzlies preview
UTA -5.5, total: 225.5
The Jazz have won consecutive games in this series and hold a 2-1 series lead heading into Game 4 on Monday.
We saw Donovan Mitchell’s minutes increase from 26 in Game 2 to 30 in Game 3 and as a result, he poured in 29 points on 9-23 shooting. He’s shot 42.1% from the field or worse in both games so far, clearly still knocking the rust off, but if his minutes continue to increase, then there’s no reason to believe his efficiency won’t make its way back. At $8,000 flat, he’s a very strong option on a two-game slate.
His presence has impacted the floor/ceiling combinations of Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic, making them best-suited for GPP formats. The same cannot be said for Mike Conley, who’s averaged 23 points, 11.3 assists and 5.3 rebounds in 35.3 minutes per game this series. The return of Mitchell hasn’t hindered his production at all, making him an elite option at $7,000. Rudy Gobert is also rather unaffected by the return of Mitchell, making him a great option at $7,800 given his reliable production.
There isn’t much value to love on the Utah side, with Royce O'Neale being the only one I would consider. While his floor is low, it’s hard to find other players under $5,000 who have legitimate 40-minute upside.
The Grizzlies have hung around in this series on the back of Ja Morant, who’s logged at least 26 points in all three games while averaging just about 40 minutes per game. His $8,400 price tag would’ve been one I’d be reluctant to pay in the regular season, but he’s only proven to be worth the tag so far in the postseason. Jonas Valanciunas also returned to form in Game 3 given the fact that he was able to avoid foul trouble and while viable on this slate, he’s still my second-favorite center in this game.
Outside of the main two for Memphis, my order of preference for the ancillary pieces is as follows; Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., Grayson Allen, Desmond Bane.
