Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The final NBA DFS main slate of the regular season is upon us, and as you can imagine, it’s getting wild. With so many players resting and rotations being unlike anything we’ve seen all season, there won’t be as many advanced stats in this breakdown, as the most important stat on this slate is minutes.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Cavaliers at Nets preview
BKN -12, total: 226
There is a strong chance we see at least one or two of the Nets’ big three suits up, even all three, as they need a win to avoid dropping to the No. 3 seed if the Bucks beat the Bulls. With that said, we could see a very similar scenario to Saturday, where the big three played 30 (Kevin Durant), 30 (Kyrie Irving) and 25 (James Harden) minutes, making them somewhat hard to trust. If having to choose, Irving would be my choice here for only $9,300 followed closely by Durant for $9,600. All three, however, are incredibly risky options.
I would rather get exposure via Bruce Brown, who’s played 28 minutes in three consecutive games, averaging 15.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 2.3 assists over that span. He should continue to get significant minutes with Joe Harris out, making him an elite value. Nicholas Claxton is also a viable option, as he’s established himself as the primary backup center, seeing 23 or more minutes in three straight games and posting at least 28 DK points in all three.
For the Cavs, Darius Garland is back and expected to play, taking away most of my interest in Collin Sexton despite the strong matchup. Both are viable in large-field tournaments, but both are also far from priorities. If there was someone to prioritize here, it would be Isaac Okoro, who’s putting together a very strong finish to the season. Over his last seven games, he’s averaged 17.1 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists in 37.6 minutes. He should get minutes regardless of the score. Dean Wade is also a fine value with Kevin Love out, albeit a rather unsexy one.
Magic at Sixers preview
PHI -8.5, total: 223
All three of the Sixers’ big three have some type of tag heading into this game, as Joel Embiid (probable), Ben Simmons (questionable), and Tobias Harris (questionable) are all in danger of missing this game or seeing reduced workloads. With the Sixers clinching the No. 1 overall seed, however, this only makes sense. I fully expect Simmons and Harris to sit out and if Embiid plays, I expect him to see a reduced workload.
In this scenario, I want to target Tyrese Maxey (25.57% usage rate without Simmons, Harris) and Isaiah Joe, assuming Matisse Thybulle and Seth Curry also sit out. Shake Milton will be another viable option if he suits up.
The Magic have been a decimated and tanking team for weeks, so seeing players sit out here would be nothing new compared to the other slates over that span. The difference, however, is that RJ Hampton and Wendell Carter have been added to the injury report, two that typically play. This would open up even more minutes for Dwayne Bacon, Gary Harris and Ignas Brazdeikis, but I have very little interest in any of the three. Frankly, this Magic team is an easier one to cross off your player pool on this slate.
Rockets at Hawks preview
ATL -11.5, total: 234
The Hawks still have the potential to jump to the No. 4 seed, but that won’t change their position in the playoff bracket, given the fact that they’ll be in the No. 4/5 series regardless. None of their regular starters have been ruled out for rest and while they could still see limited minutes in this game, the matchup is good enough where we can target underpriced pieces like Trae Young ($8,800), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,200) and John Collins ($6,500). Clint Capela ($8,200) is also a strong play here, but his price feels appropriate whereas the other three feel a few hundred too cheap.
If any of the aforementioned players sit out, the group of Kevin Huerter, Brandon Goodwin, Skylar Mays and Nathan Knight would all see a boost in minutes.
The Rockets are a team that we can approach as we normally do, as they’ve been in tank-mode for the better part of the second half of the season. Kelly Olynyk at $8,500 feels like a lot to ask, but his production has warranted the price, averaging 49.03 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 games. Kenyon Martin and Jae'Sean Tate are two other options in my pool on this slate, as both feel a touch cheap for the production that they’re giving us. In the backcourt, Armoni Brooks and Anthony Lamb should benefit from the fact that DaQuan Jeffries was waived and Khyri Thomas has been ruled out, making them both viable value options.
Heat at Pistons preview
MIA -6.5, total: 217.5
With a 76.3% chance to finish as the No. 6 seed, the only way the Heat can move up is with a win coupled with a Knicks loss to the Celtics. If the Heat have any hope of leapfrogging the Knicks and jumping to No. 5, then they’d hope Jimmy Butler will be active for this game.
If so, he makes for an elite target in a game that they likely want to win. If he’s out, we can look to Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn for production, as the latter put on a clinic against the Bucks on Saturday. In Butler’s absence, it was Nemanja Bjelica who drew his first start in a Heat uniform, posting 27.5 DK points in only 21 minutes. If this becomes the case again Sunday, he makes for a viable punt at $3,000 flat.
The Pistons have a similar active roster to the one they did Friday, with Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Isaiah Stewart and Sekou Doumbouya all listed as out, with Cory Joseph and Frank Jackson listed as questionable. With this being the case, Hamidou Diallo becomes an elite value play if the guards end up sitting, as would Josh Jackson. Even if the guards are in, Jahlil Okafor has plenty of merit at only $3,400 in a position where he should draw the start. Tyler Cook would be an elite pivot off, as he commanded the lion’s share of the center minutes (35) last game despite coming off the bench.
Nuggets at Blazers preview
POR -8.5, total: 231
The Nuggets still need to win to avoid dropping to the No. 4 seed after the Clippers dropped a game on Friday, meaning we should at least see some (maybe not a full workload) of Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter here. Considering all the other players resting on this slate, it’s hard not to consider them two of the best spend-up options in a game Denver wants to win. In two games against Portland this season, Jokic has averaged 33.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.0 assists, giving him one of the best floor/ceiling combinations on the slate. Porter has stepped up in the absence of Jamal Murray, posting a 24.2% usage rate over the last two weeks while averaging 1.10 DKP/min.
Given the exploitable matchup, Aaron Gordon is also worth a look in tournaments given his $5,200 price tag and the fact that he’s seen at least 29 minutes in three straight games.
The Blazers want to win here too, as a loss puts them one step closer to dropping to the No. 7 seed and the dreaded play-in tournament. In a must-win game, both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are elite options at their respective prices. Jusuf Nurkic should also see a full workload and against a defense that’s allowing a higher field-goal percentage in the restricted area than any other team in the league, he’s an elite GPP option.
Jazz at Kings preview
UTA -11.5, total: 227
With the Jazz needing a win to officially secure the No. 1 seed in the West, it would make sense to see all the starters (outside of Donovan Mitchell) active for this game. In this scenario and game environment, Mike Conley makes for a strong option at his $7,000 price tag. With Mitchell out this season, Conley has posted a 27.17% usage rate and over 36 DraftKings points per minute, more than a 10% increase on his season average.
Jordan Clarkson and Bojan Bogdanovic should continue to see an expanded role on offense given their scoring-dependent nature, but Joe Ingles takes a bit of a hit with Conley back. Rudy Gobert is also a viable spend-up at center, but I much prefer to get all the way up to Jokic if already planning to spend up at the position.
The Kings are a rather unappealing team here, as they have been for a week or so now and this matchup makes it even more unappealing. Delon Wright should continue to log heavy touches with De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton out, making him a viable mid-tier option at $7,800 and the absences should continue to open up shots for Terence Davis ($6,600), but outside of those two, it’s hard to get excited about anyone in tournaments.
The only other options that I am considering are Chimezie Metu and Damian Jones. The latter should see a ton of center minutes as he did Friday (35) given that Richaun Holmes is out again and Hassan Whiteside is listed as questionable. Whiteside hasn’t played since April 21, so it wouldn’t necessarily make sense to see him return for the final game of the season.
Lakers at Pelicans preview
LAL -11, total: 224
The Lakers are another team in must-win mode, as they absolutely have to win this game to have even a remote chance at moving up into the No. 6 seed and avoid the play-in tournament. Because of this, both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are firmly in play, with Davis the priority between the two. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 31.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 2.5 stocks in 39.8 minutes per game en route to 56.5 DKP/game. He’s my top overall spend-up on the slate given the nature of the game, serving as a 1A to Nikola Jokic’s 1B.
James is an elite pivot for $9,800 on DraftKings, where he feels a few hundred dollars too cheap. With the rest of the rotation returning to form, the two stars are all that I have my focus on for the Lakers.
For the Pelicans, the usual suspects remain out (Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Steven Adams) in addition to the newly absent James Johnson. This leaves the team extremely thin and given the tough matchup, they’re hard to get to. Nickeil Alexander-Walker should continue to garner the lion’s share of usage with Eric Bledsoe serving as his No. 2. The former is an elite option, with Bledsoe being a fine cash-game play at $6,300.
Naji Marshall, Jaxson Hayes and Willy Hernangomez are the other three that I would want exposure to in MME builds, with Kira Lewis sneaking in for minimal exposure as well.
Bucks at Bulls preview
MIL -3.5, total: 224.5
The Bucks still have the chance to leapfrog the Nets if they lose to the Cavs and the Bucks win, but with the chances of this being so thin, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see the Bucks starters rest. As a side note for narrative chasers, if the Bucks win this game, they’ll become the first team in NBA history to go undefeated against division opponents in a season. If you think that could play a factor here, then you would operate under the assumption that they’re all active.
Personally, I’ll choose to trust the trend of the Vegas data, as a 3.5-point spread fully indicates that players will be resting. We’ve seen games before where the big three sit, leading to tons of time for Jordan Nwora, Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Sam Merrill and Jeff Teague, and my priority of the deep values would be that exact order. If Bobby Portis and Donte DiVincenzo are active, they would be priorities as well with Portis being a bigger one. As always, if only one or two of the studs sit, the active ones between Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would be viable options.
With the Bulls having quite literally nothing to play for, they’re a difficult team to target here. It would make sense to see Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic sit out to avoid running the risk of getting hurt, but it also wouldn’t be the most surprising thing in the world to see them active. If so, they both make for viable plays against what I expect to be the B-team for the Bucks. If inactive, Coby White, Patrick Williams, Thaddeus Young and Lauri Markkanen would be viable value plays.
Clippers at Thunder preview
LAC -8.5, total: 222
After losing to the Rockets Friday, the Clippers dropped to the No. 4 seed in the West and need a win to keep their hopes for the No. 3 seed alive while hoping for a Nuggets loss to the Blazers. Because of this, I expect Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to suit up, but the 8.5-point spread feels like it’s expecting otherwise.
If they are both active, they’re both elite options at prices in the low-$8,000 range. If only one is active, whoever it is between Leonard and George would be an elite option. With Serge Ibaka back, I will be avoiding the frontcourt here, making the two all-stars my only focus from the Clippers.
With the Thunder locked into a bottom-three record and a top-three draft position, they have absolutely nothing to play for here. In a tough matchup that I expect the Clippers to win handily, I have virtually zero interest in the Thunder.
If pressing for exposure, Darius Bazley would be the most reliable option, with Theo Maledon coming in as the No. 2 option.
Mavericks at Timberwolves preview
DAL -7.5, total: 230.5
The Mavericks have a 93.2% chance to finish as the No. 5 seed (per Basketball-Reference) with the Timberwolves sitting on the outside looking in toward the top-three draft order, so this game carries less meaning than some of the others on the slate.
If the Mavs are looking to lock up a win and guarantee the No. 5 seed, it would make sense to target Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis, as they both feel a touch cheap for their ceilings. I view them as great tournament plays, but cannot prioritize Doncic over Davis, Jokic or Lillard.
The Timberwolves should continue to run their starters out for at least 26-27 minutes as they did on Saturday, but that may not be enough on this slate to warrant them in smaller-field or 3-5-max builds. If any of their three studs is going to get a normal allotment of minutes, Anthony Edwards is the likely bet, making him a viable play at only $7,700.
