Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Unlike most slates throughout the season, the NBA DFS slate on the day of the trade deadline carries a ton more hypotheticals given the number of players that change scenery every season. While the deadline happens ahead of slate lock, it’s important to forecast these hypotheticals to prepare for players moving.
Of the players on Thursday’s five-game slate Thursday, the following are ones that have been heavily involved in trade rumors and could see themselves on a different team ahead of lock and would cause DFS-relevant changes to their teams’ rotations:
- Bradley Beal, Washington Wizards
- DeMar DeRozan, San Antonio Spurts
- Tyler Herro, Miami Heat
I will cover these potential hypotheticals throughout the breakdown.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Portland Trail Blazers @ Miami Heat
MIA -4, total: 219.0
I mentioned it above, but there is a non-zero chance Herro gets traded sometime Thursday, as his name has been a hot one throughout the NBA trade scene. With Goran Dragic already listed as questionable, a potential Herro absence would open up a heap of minutes in the backcourt for Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson and Gabe Vincent. If this scenario happens, Nunn and Vincent would be two elite values in this matchup. If Herro remains on the Heat, he would become a viable value option in this matchup if Dragic ends up getting ruled out.
Regardless of whether it happens, it’s hard not to like both Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler here. Over the last two weeks, both of them have usage rates over 25%, assist rates over 25%, rebounding rates over 13%, and DKP/min clips over 1.30 per minute. On top of that, the Blazers rank 24th or worse in five of Butler’s six player traits (per advanced DvP), as well as 24th or worse in three of Adebayo’s six traits.
While this is such an exploitable matchup for the Heat, it’s quite the opposite for the Blazers, as the Heat rank sixth in the NBA in defensive efficiency and 26th in pace. Because of this, I’d want to stick to the reliable assets here in Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum, if anyone at all. If running a single lineup, I won’t have any Blazers. If running multiple lineups, I would consider a runback option if and only if stacking the Heat.
Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks
NYK -3, total: 225.5
We saw this matchup Tuesday, resulting in a 131-113 win for the Knicks in a game that surged past the over/under. Both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal played in this game as well, with neither shooting north of 40% from the field. While both are expected to play Thursday, as I noted above, there’s a chance Beal could see himself dealt ahead of the game. If that becomes the case, this becomes an easy team to dissect, as Westbrook would soak up all the usage in the world. This would also make Rui Hachimura and Deni Avdija more viable in terms of ancillary pieces. If Beal remains on the team, he should be active for this game and would become a fine tournament play, but nothing more. He’s shown a level of volatility lately that makes me uncomfortable in such a difficult matchup when we can just default to Westbrook, who’s posted four triple-doubles in his last six games. His minutes have also been approaching 40 per game outside of the last game due to blowout.
Just like last game in this matchup, I have a ton of interest in getting at least one Knicks piece here. We saw Julius Randle do exactly what we thought and absolutely shred Washington’s defense to the tune of 37 points and while his peripherals disappeared, it doesn’t matter when he’s scoring that much. He’s a top play on the five-game slate.
RJ Barrett and Alec Burks are the other two that garner interest. With the point guard rotation starting to return, these two still saw a normal allotment of minutes (39.1 for Barrett, 29.1 for Burks). Burks has now scored at least 20 points in three straight games and 19 in four straight, giving him great recent form as well. Elfrid Payton is the other viable Knicks player in tournaments, as his $5,100 price tag is enticing if we expect him to see a slight uptick compared to his 20.8 minutes last game. If we can project him for at least 25 minutes, this price gives him upside worthy of a flier in GPPs given the matchup.
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs
LAC -6, total: 222.0
Similar to the previous game, this was another matchup that we saw recently. In fact, we saw this game 24 hours ago in a game that the Clippers won by 33 (134-101). In this game, Kawhi Leonard led all scorers with 25 points, while Marcus Morris followed closely behind with 20.
Being the second leg of a back-to-back, we cannot entirely rule out the fact that one or both of Leonard and Paul George could sit out. As always, if one of them sits, the other becomes an elite play and this slate is no different. If both are active, they’re both viable given the sub-$9,000 price tags. Morris is viable if one of the two misses, as he’d be forced to operate as a secondary option on offense.
Ivica Zubac continues to be a viable option as long as Serge Ibaka remains out, as he’s averaged 13.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, 2.2 stocks, and 1.8 steals in 30.3 minutes over his last five games. If paying down for a mid-tier center, Zubac is the perfect option.
For the Spurs, it’s hard to get excited about anyone here, especially if DeMar DeRozan ends up getting dealt at the deadline. If that becomes the case, we’d likely see more Lonnie Walker, Derrick White and Devin Vassell, making all three interesting value options. Dejounte Murray would also become a usage hog, but he’s viable even if DeRozan is retained through the deadline.
DeRozan himself is hard to trust given his price in this matchup. While he scored 19 points in only 28 minutes last game, I’d much rather default to the underpriced studs on the other side of this game.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Lakers
PHI -5, total: 212.0
This would’ve been must-see TV a mere weeks ago, but with Joel Embiid, LeBron James and Anthony Davis out, it becomes much less interesting.
Nonetheless, both teams have viable pieces here. Without their superstars, the Lakers team as a whole is completely different, becoming one of the more attackable matchups in the NBA. This thrusts both Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris into the player pool. Without Embiid this season, Harris sports a 28.3% usage rate, 18.4% assist rate, and 12.2% rebounding rate while Simmons sports a 23.9% usage rate, 36.2% assist rate, and 12.9% rebounding rate. Both are priced reasonably, while Simmons feels a touch cheap on FanDuel.
Both Tony Bradley and Dwight Howard also carry some appeal, even with Howard essentially being phased out of the last game against the Warriors. While Howard was phased out, Bradley saw 32 minutes en route to 42.2 FanDuel points, his second game over his last three topping 25 FD points. His price has come up to $5,400, but his power forward eligibility there makes him a viable PF2 on the five-game slate.
For the Lakers, I will continue to target Kyle Kuzma with the stars out. Over his last two games, he’s averaged 15 shot attempts in 35 minutes per game, to go along with 6.5 assists, 8.0 rebounds, and 1.0 steals per game. He should continue to operate as a key-cog on offense, making him an elite mid-tier target. Outside of Kuzma, I still have interest in both Dennis Schroder and Montrezl Harrell. Between the two, Harrell feels like a better bet on this slate given the lack of frontcourt depth for the Sixers and the looming Ben Simmons defense that could fall in the way of Schroder Thursday. There is also a chance that Kuzma sees a bit of Simmons defensively.
Talen Horton-Tucker is nothing more than a tournament dart if you expect this game to be a blowout, as the guards returning to the bench for the Lakers have severely hampered his floor, playing only 19 minutes last game in a blowout.
Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings
SAC -2.5, total: 224.0
Even with Stephen Curry out, this late game carries much more fantasy appeal that some of the others on the slate, given the fact that both teams rank top-10 in pace while the Kings are dead last in defensive efficiency.
Over the last week without Curry, we’ve seen plenty Warriors players step up, most notably Jordan Poole and Andrew Wiggins. Over that span, Poole leads the team in minutes (111.1), sporting a 24.1% usage rate and 15.3% assist rate, while Wiggins is second in minutes (103.3), but leads the team with a 29.1% usage rate while averaging 1.19 DKP/min. Both are viable in this matchup, with Wiggins carrying the higher ceiling for a higher price.
Both Draymond Green and Kelly Oubre are strong tournament plays here, with my lean going to Green given Oubre’s insane level of volatility this season. James Wiseman is the other Warriors player that I have interest in. He drew the start in his first game back against the Sixers, playing 25.9 minutes, posting 11 points and four rebounds. He’ll still typically find himself on the bench in late-game situations (only played 2:23 in the fourth quarter last game), but this is an exploitable matchup making him a great value option.
The Kings are also viable here and the 2.5-point spread makes this even more enticing, as the masses seem to believe this will be a close game. De'Aaron Fox is one of the top overall plays on the slate given the pace that the Warriors play at, albeit a bit slower without Curry. He’s posted a 31.5% usage rate and 30.1% assist rate over the last four weeks while averaging 1.27 DKP/min, giving him one of the highest ceilings on the slate.
Tyrese Haliburton, Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes are the other trio of Kings that I have my eyes on. Haliburton is back to seeing consistent minutes and coach Walton has reiterated the fact that he wants him on the court whenever Fox is off. Cory Joseph was also just traded to the Pistons and with Delon Wright likely not ready to join the team yet, there’s even more backup point guard minutes up for grabs. Barnes and Holmes both feel like reliable cash plays with immense upside in this matchup and neither are hard to fit into a lineup.
You can still get away with Buddy Hield in tournaments, but he’s ceding some minutes to Haliburton, which should naturally cap his upside compared to what we saw with Haliburton sidelined.
