Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Once again, a Wednesday around the NBA presents us with the largest NBA DFS slate of the week. We have 10 total games Wednesday full of value, studs and tight spreads.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
(Make sure to check out all of our other awesome NBA tools, including the Odds Tracker (above), the Prop Shop, and starting lineups page.)
Sacramento Kings @ Washington Wizards
WAS -3.5, total: 245.5
The slate kicks off with the highest Vegas total of the evening, as it’ll be imperative to get at least one piece of this game.
Both Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are expected to play, and while they’re both viable with each other on the court, Westbrook has been the more reliable fantasy asset lately. He’s $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings, but $10,400 is still a reasonable price in this matchup for a player with his immense triple-double upside. Given the discount, there’s a chance that Beal finds himself carrying more ownership. At $9,400, though, that’s not ownership that I would be afraid of and potential chalk worth eating.
Obviously, with both of these players active, the rest of this team is hard to trust, even in an enticing matchup. If forced to choose from the ancillary pieces, Rui Hachimura makes the most sense. He’s averaged 25.5 points per game over his last two games while seeing 38 and 37 minutes respectively, giving him enough upside to warrant consideration here. His over/under on PrizePicks is also incredibly low (23 fantasy points), making this an easy “over,” along with a ton of other picks from this game in my PrizePicks article.
Outside of a stud (or both) for Washington, my interest lies on the Sacramento side here. De'Aaron Fox is the obvious runback candidate and makes for an elite play, but I have more interest in Richaun Holmes for $6,700 now that he has multi-position eligibility. He’s coming off of a 57-DraftKings-point game and now faces a Wizards frontcourt that ranks 25th against crafty finishers and 27th against rebounders, per our advanced DvP tool. He’s an affordable way to get exposure to this game.
You can also go right back to the well with Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes, as they’re playing close to 40 minutes per game and have demonstrated tons of upside this season. Hield, in particular, has been running extremely hot. With Marvin Bagley out, we could also see more Tyrese Haliburton as the Kings shift Barnes to the four, and at $5,500, he’s a very viable play assuming he sees an uptick in minutes.
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons
TOR -3.5, total: 220.5
The Raptors are expected to be without both Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby once again, but unlike the last handful of games, Pascal Siakam has cleared the health and safety protocols and is listed as questionable.
Assuming he plays, he’d provide some much-needed relief for the rest of the team, as he holds a 29.5% usage rate, 19.4% assist rate, and posts 1.18 DKP/min with the two aforementioned players out. While he would certainly take some offensive touches away from both Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell, both get enough of a boost with the other two out where they’d still be viable in this matchup. Because of price, my lean is Powell for $1,100 less on DraftKings and $600 less on FanDuel. This will slightly knock the stock of Chris Boucher, but he still posts 1.19 DKP/min with the aforementioned players out, giving him enough upside to warrant consideration if you expect the minutes to remain intact.
For the Pistons, Dennis Smith is questionable after missing last game and while his presence would siphon some minutes away from Delon Wright, he’s still too cheap at $5,800. While Kyle Lowry is not a defender I tend to attack, Wright’s ability to contribute across the stat sheet makes him an appealing mid-tier target.
The only other Pistons worth considering are Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee. Both are a touch cheap and while volatile, should benefit from matching up with a beatable frontcourt and make for fine GPP plays. If you want to get ballsy and think the Raptors get it together and blow the Pistons out, Isaiah Stewart is an intriguing GPP play. He’s seen 20 or more minutes in seven consecutive games, topping 20 DK points in all but one. At $3,900, you can do a lot worse in terms of value.
Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers
BKN -4, total: 232
The analysis for the Nets feels stale because until Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin return, it’s quite repetitive. James Harden and Kyrie Irving are both viable. Harden obviously carries the higher ceiling and elite triple-double upside, but also costs almost $2,000 more than Irving on DraftKings. Who to target is contingent on your lineup construction.
The other side of this game is far more appealing, as Malcolm Brogdon feels too cheap at $7,200 on DraftKings and $7,000 on FanDuel. Kyrie Irving “defense” is something to attack and over the last week, Brogdon has posted a 27.6% usage rate and 1.25 DKP/min. Perhaps an even better value, though, is Caris LeVert on FanDuel. His play has been erratic but that’s expected after a long layoff. The fact that he’s $4,400 after posting a 24.5% usage rate and close to a fantasy point per minute (0.93) is where it gets ridiculous. On top of that, this is a massive pace-up spot against his former team that shipped him off in the Brooklyn Nets. You’d like to think he’ll have some extra motivation for this one. He’s a core play on FanDuel, but fadeable on DraftKings due to his price.
Domantas Sabonis is also an elite play if you can get there, as the Nets have gotten absolutely terrorized in the paint since the Harden trade, rankings towards the bottom of the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers
MIL -6.5, total: 236
The Sixers are coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back after a gritty win against the Knicks and immediately step into another tough matchup.
The absence of Joel Embiid certainly hurts their chances as a team, but also opens up opportunity from a DFS perspective. Tobias Harris (28.4% usage rate, 1.27 DKP/min this season without Embiid) and Ben Simmons (23.2% usage rate, 39.6% assist rate, 1.29 DKP/min without Embiid) are the obvious beneficiaries and given the matchup, likely the only places I’ll go on this Philly team.
You can take a shot with either Dwight Howard or Tony Bradley, but the playing time is rather ambiguous between the two and this is not a matchup that presents a heap of upside.
For the Bucks, it’s hard to ignore the stretch that Giannis Antetokounmpo has put together. Over his last three games, he’s averaged 29.3 points, 12.0 rebounds and 10.3 assists while adding 2.7 stocks in 33.8 minutes per game. The Sixers are a completely different defensive unit without Embiid (below), giving Giannis a great opportunity to continue this stretch.
Jrue Holiday remains uber cheap on FanDuel and carries enough upside to warrant consideration, especially given his heightened ceiling for defensive peripherals against a team with two ball-dominant players in Simmons and Harris. You can also get away with Khris Middleton here if you expect Giannis to be slowed down by Simmons, which would be a great way to hedge your lineup and leverage the field.
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
BOS -9, total: 217.5
This is a game that I have little interest in, as both teams are coming into this game on the second leg of a back-to-back with a low total and a rather scary spread.
If I am going anywhere in this game, it’ll be to Jayson Tatum and/or Jaylen Brown, as we could see both Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart get the night off. Of the two, Brown is my preferred option, as he’s been one of the best transition players in the NBA and takes on one of the worst transition defenses on the opposite side of this game. He also comes with a nice price break compared to Tatum.
If Walker and Smart are active, Brown is still my preferred option, but nobody on this team would be a priority.
The Cavs are not a team that I have much interest in on this slate. If you’re looking for a player with slate-breaking upside, Jarrett Allen makes sense at what should be low ownership. He should be able to feast on the frontcourt that could be without Tristan Thompson again and he carries upside for over 60 fantasy points into this game.
Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
GSW -11.5, total: 227
Eric Gordon and John Wall have already been ruled out and Victor Oladipo is expected to join them, leaving the Rockets’ back-court extremely thin. This should lead to Kevin Porter being one of the most popular plays on the slate, especially on FanDuel. This is chalk that I want to chase. With these players out, he’s posting a 30.7% usage rate, 40% assist rate and 1.26 FDP/min, making him one of the best overall options on the slate. This should also continue to open up minutes for Kenyon Martin on the wing. While his price jumped to $5,000 on FanDuel, he’s still a solid value play as he should flirt with the 37-minute mark or higher.
Sterling Brown will likely draw a second consecutive start and remains cheap across the industry. He’s a better play on DraftKings for $4,600 considering his multi-position eligibility (SG/SF). There’s also a slim chance that we see Christian Wood suit up for this game and while he holds a massive usage rate and per-minute clip with the three guards out, he would likely be far too limited in terms of playing time to be a viable play.
The Warriors should be able to have their way with the Rockets here, but the spread scares me off of paying up for Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. They’re elite GPP plays, but the very realistic chance that they only play three quarters caps their ceiling considerably. I would rather take a shot on James Wiseman here, as the Rockets have been getting smashed by centers and he’s proven time and time again that he can rack up production in a short period of time, specifically in the fourth quarter in blowouts. For $4,600 on DraftKings, he’s my top value center on the slate.
San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls
SAS -1.5, total: 227
DeMar DeRozan has been ruled out for yet another game, thrusting the Spurs into the viable play territory – as scary as that’s been as of late. Dejounte Murray makes the most sense here, as his $7,500 price tag leaves a ton of room for upside. With DeRozan out, he’s averaging a 25.5% usage rate, 26.1% assist rate and 1.05 DKP/min and gets one of the best matchups on the board.
Derrick White, Lonnie Walker, Patty Mills and Keldon Johnson should all continue to receive bumps too, but I’d be lying if I said I had any confidence in any of them. I expect White and Johnson to continue to pick up some ownership, but this is potential chalk that I want zero part of, as they’ve been far too volatile to trust on a slate with so many superior options elsewhere. If I’m going to a Spurs’ player outside of Murray, it’ll be Jakob Poeltl in tournaments, as the Bulls rank 16th against rim protectors and 23rd against rebounders (per aDvP).
For the Bulls, Tomas Satoransky may be the most popular value play on the slate and it’s hard to argue with. Over his last two games as a starter, he’s averaged over 30 DK points per game on the back of 11.5 points, seven assists, four rebounds and two steals per game. There’s zero reason to abandon ship here at only $3,800.
Zach LaVine is the only other Chicago player that I have interest in, as his usage rate over the last month (30.9%) and assist rate (20.9%) give him some of the highest upside on the slate relative to his price.
Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies
MIA -2, total: 220.5
Bam Adebayo made his return to the Heat Tuesday night, posting 37.25 DraftKings points in 30 minutes, showing little signs of rust. My issue is the fact that he may be scaled back or rested altogether Wednesday. If he is, that thrusts Jimmy Butler into elite play territory (not that he isn’t already), but his price on FanDuel is too high for consideration. DraftKings, however, is a different story, as Butler if viable regardless of the status of Adebayo. If Adebayo is ruled out, we can also go right back to the well with Kelly Olynyk.
With a fully healthy rotation now (if Adebayo suits up), it’s hard to feel confident in the three guards (Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Kendrick Nunn) in anything more than a large-field tournament unless one or multiple are ruled out.
The Grizzlies are a team that I have minimal interest in here, especially with how good the Heat have been on the defensive side of the ball since Jimmy Butler returned from his COVID-related absence. You can take a shot with Ja Morant or Jonas Valanciunas for their upside, but this is a team that I intend to full fade on this slate.
Charlotte Hornets @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -6.5, total: 230.5
If there’s a stud to pay up for Wednesday, it’s going to be hard to make a case for anyone compared to Nikola Jokic. Not only is he posting a 29.9% usage rate, 38% assist rate, and 1.6 DKP/min this season, but the matchup is hard to top. Per advanced DvP, the Hornets rank 23rd against primary ball handlers and 22nd against rebounders, adding to his peripheral upside. It’s just a matter of whether you think this game will stay close long enough for him to smash (hint: I do).
Outside of Jokic, it’s hard to trust the rest of this team, even in a good matchup. The pace should cater to the play style of Michael Porter, but given his volatility and struggles with foul trouble this season, he’s best left for tournaments. The same can be said for Jamal Murray, who is going to naturally carry a high level of variance when he’s playing alongside the league-leader in touches per game (Jokic).
For the Hornets, you can get away with LaMelo Ball or Gordon Hayward here, but it’s hard to endorse them in anything more than a large-field GPPs, as their floors are almost as low as their ceilings are high.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks
LAC -3, total: 226.5
The late-night hammer on this slate is a game that we saw a few days ago, resulting in a 109-99 win for the Clippers. In that game, we saw Kawhi Leonard play over 40 minutes while Paul George trailed closely behind at a shade over 37. Though they both played a ton of minutes, neither were insanely productive, as the Clippers had seven players reach double-digits in scoring.
I would expect that to change in this game if we are projecting them to each play a similar allotment of minutes. Both are simply too cheap on DraftKings, but if choosing, it has to be Paul George. $7,900 is a slap in the face and the recency bias after two down games is something to take advantage on in this game.
If Serge Ibaka sits out, I can get on board with Ivica Zubac again. He saw 35 minutes last game and posted 32.75 DK points on the back of a 15-point, 11-rebound double-double and would be in line for a similar workload once again. His price went down $100 on DraftKings, making him an elite bargain if he ends up drawing the start.
For the Mavs, it’s either Luka Doncic or Kristaps Porzingis once again, though neither are must-plays. Doncic is the obvious lean from a raw-upside perspective, especially after posting a 25-16-10 triple-double on this stout defense two days ago, but I prefer spending up for Giannis or Jokic before I’d get to Doncic. He makes more sense on FanDuel where he’s more affordable ($10,200) and you have more salary to toy with.
