Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Saturday presents us with eight total NBA games, with seven of them being on the main NBA DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings, with the Knicks versus Thunder taking place at 2 p.m. ET as a standalone game. For the sake of the game-by-game breakdown, we will focus on the six-game main slate.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
(Make sure to check out all of the great FTN NBA offerings and fantastic NBA Tools, including our FTN NBA Odds Tracker and daily FTN NBA DFS cheat sheets!)
Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -11.5, total: 228.5
With Killian Hayes and Dennis Smith out (COVID-19 protocols) as well as Svi Mykhailuk traded to the Thunder, the Pistons backcourt is all of a sudden rather thin against the Nets. This leaves plenty of potential for Delon Wright to soak up a ton of minutes. While he only saw 22 in his first game back from injury, his $5,500 price tag makes him a bargain as long as he can see at or above 27 minutes in this pace-up spot.
Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee also offer upside at their prices, especially if Detroit can manage to keep this game close for three quarters. Grant in particular had a great showing when these teams last met, posting 32 points, five rebounds and four assists in 38 minutes. That production is well within his range of outcomes once again. Plumlee, on the other hand, could feast against a weak frontcourt, as the Nets are allowing the sixth-highest field goal percentage in the paint (outside of the restricted area) at 44.4%.
The Nets will continue to be limited to James Harden or Kyrie Irving for me with little interest in the ancillary pieces. Between the two, Harden carries a higher ceiling but also comes at a $1,200 premium on DraftKings ($2,300 on FanDuel). Based on roster construction, I prefer Irving across the board, as his usage rate is only incrementally less than Harden and he allows you to allocate salary elsewhere in your lineup. With that said, I will not argue if you want to go with Harden.
Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -2.5, total: 229.5
The Raptors continue to operate with a depleted rotation, as Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet and OG Anunoby all remain out. This puts the spotlight right back on both Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell in an extremely exploitable matchup. Lowry is significantly more expensive across the board and showed last game that his floor is still reasonably low with these three out. For that reason, I prefer the dollar-for-dollar value on Powell and want to make it a priority to get him in my lineup. Over the last four games, he’s averaged 31 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.5 assists and a steal across 36.7 minutes per game. For under $8,000 on both sites, he’s a massive steal.
Chris Boucher is another Raptors player that I want to prioritize over Kyle Lowry Saturday. Over his last four games, he’s averaged 21 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in just over 29 minutes per game. On top of this, the matchup is one to exploit, as the Hornets rank 24th or worse against four of his six player traits per advanced DvP, listed below:
For the Hornets, you can still get away with LaMelo Ball, especially against a more attackable Toronto defense with the missing starters, but his price is too restrictive on this slate to recommend him in anything more than multi-entry formats, as there are simply too many other great guard spots on the slate. The same logic can be applied to Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward, but they’re far more volatile than Ball.
The only Hornets player that I would really consider in smaller field formats is Cody Zeller, as his sub-$5,000 price tag on DraftKings is still a touch cheap. Over the last two games, he’s averaged 12.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 24.65 DraftKings points per game and should see 22-plus minutes once again against a frontcourt with Aron Baynes and Boucher.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards
MIL -10.5, total: 240
The Wizards come into this game on the tail end of a back-to-back after getting stomped by the shorthanded Sixers and could potentially see a star rest Saturday. While Russell Westbrook has been prone to resting on back-to-backs this season, it wouldn’t entirely shock me to see Bradley Beal be a candidate for rest as well considering the fact that he’s dealing with some knee soreness. The chance both of them suit up remains the most likely outcome and in that scenario, I really don’t have interest in either of them in this matchup given how loaded the top end of this slate is. If one of them sits, however, the other would be thrust into elite-play territory given the astronomical usage associated with the absences.
The only other Wizards player worth mentioning is Deni Avdija, and his merit is specific to FanDuel. He’s played at least 24 minutes in four consecutive games and would be a major beneficiary should one of the guards sit, making him a viable value at $3,900 at a thin small forward position.
The Bucks step into a far more enticing side of this matchup with the blowout concern being the only reason to fade them. That being the case, it’s hard to get away from Giannis Antetokounmpo here, as his 1.66 DKP/min clip gives him enough upside where he can get there in 28-30 minutes if needed. Outside of Giannis, however, this is not a slate where i feel the need to hedge my exposure with Khris Middleton and/or Jrue Holiday given the risk for blowout. If there’s another Bucks player that I want to target, it’s Bobby Portis. He’s posted 1.11 DKP/min and with his price all the way down to $4,100, 20 minutes is really all he needs to smash value. Given the projected game script (both pace and spread), this sets up as a ceiling game for him at this price.
Sacramento Kings @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -4, total: 239.5
While this game misses the mark as the highest total on the slate by a mere half point, it’ll likely be the most popular game stack of the evening. The Hawks have slowed their pace down a bit and improved their defense under Nate McMillan, but any time a team plays against the Kings, it’s imperative to get at least one piece.
With that being the case, it only makes sense to start with Trae Young. He’s rounded back into form and posted 50-plus DK points in back-to-back outings and sports a 32.6% usage rate with a 42.6% assist rate, making him an elite play. I love the idea of pair him with Clint Capela and getting exposure to the pick-and-roll in this matchup, as Capela is posting 1.32 DKP/min this season and comes in extremely underpriced at $7,500. If you want to defer to John Collins for $6,500, you can, he simply comes with more volatility than Young and Capela. There certainly is upside at his price, however.
While Bogdan Bogdanovic has commanded some attention since his return, his performances have been far from ideal from a DFS standpoint, so if targeting a wing, I’d rather opt for Kevin Huerter at under $6,000, as he’s posted 30-plus DK points in three consecutive outings.
With so much interest in a Young/Clint Capela stack, I’ll want to run it back with someone on the Kings as well. De'Aaron Fox is the best bet in this scenario. He’s posted a 31.8% usage rate, 37.1% assist rate, and 1.36 DKP/min over the last two weeks and gets to square off with Young on defense, who ranks 86th out of 86 qualified point guards in defensive real plus/minus this season. That’s dead last. That’s bad.
If fading Fox, Buddy Hield would be my second target, as he’s demonstrated an unusual level of consistency as of late. He’s topped 45 DK points in three out of his last four games and as long as he continues to see heavy minutes, he has nice ceiling potential at $6,600. Harrison Barnes is another player to target here, as these types of pace-up matchups are where he thrives as a Swiss army knife type of player and his price has finally come back down to a reasonable range.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
POR -4.5, total: 233
This is the third game in a row that carries an implied total of over 230 points, and it’s another game that I want at least a piece of. The easiest piece to default to here, of course, is Damian Lillard. The Timberwolves have virtually zero defensive presence, which only helps a matchup-proof player in Lillard. The only question is whether you want to spend all the way up to him. Given the fact that his ownership won’t be outrageous, he makes for an elite play.
If fading Lillard, it makes sense to look towards Gary Trent as another volume-heavy option in the backcourt. His $5,400 price tag on DraftKings and $4,900 tag on FanDuel gives him room for a nice ceiling game relative to his salary. Enes Kanter is the other Blazer that I have interest in, as Karl-Anthony Towns’ presence should both keep him on the court for 30+ minutes and also presents an exploitable matchup on offense.
For the Wolves, Towns and Anthony Edwards are the two plays to look to the most here. Both players have usage rates over 30% with D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley out and should benefit from an elite game environment.
You can also consider Ricky Rubio on FanDuel, as he’s posted 1.01 FDP/min in the absence of these two players with a 33.8% assist rate over the last two weeks. For $4,800 on FanDuel, he comes in as one of my top overall values at the point guard position.
Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -6.5, total: 226.5
Unlike the three games above, this game doesn’t carry a massive amount of fantasy appeal, as both of these are strong defensive units and teams that don’t necessarily push the pace. On the second leg of a back-to-back, I have virtually no interest in the Pacers side here outside of the fan in me getting giddy to see Caris LeVert back on the court.
For the Suns, Chris Paul is once again an extremely strong cash-game option. His ownership is never higher than 10-12% (if even that) and his $7,600 price makes 5.25x-salary an easy target for him in a game that I think should stay close enough for the majority of the game.
Devin Booker is the other worthwhile target for the Suns, as he currently sits as probable for the game. His $7,700 price tag on FanDuel is an appealing one considering he’s topped 45 FD points in two of his last four games while failing to fall below 32 FD points in any of his last eight games, giving him a nice safety net in a middling matchup.
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -3, total: 221
Considering how many great plays are on the slate, it’ll be interesting to see how many people are willing to push their salary to the late game, as both Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic step into exploitable matchups.
Both are in the hunt for the MVP award and Doncic’s rates are far from a surprise. He’s posting 1.50 DKP/min over the last two weeks and while there’s been a bit more volatility in terms of his results over that span, his $10,600 price is a nice discount off of the rest of the studs on DraftKings (the same can be said for his $10,400 tag on FanDuel).
If not going Doncic, it makes sense to look towards Kristaps Porzingis, as he’s posted 1.24 DKP/min with a 26.4% usage rate over those same two weeks and takes on a Denver defense that is currently allowing the highest field-goal percentage in the entire NBA in the restricted area (69.4%).
Unless one of those two sits out (which is highly unlikely considering the fact that this is an island game for the Mavs), the rest of the team is an easy fade.
On the Nuggets side, Nikola Jokic should be able to do whatever he wants with a Dallas defense that ranks in the bottom-10 in the league in field-goal percentage allowed in the restricted area (65%), especially considering the fact that he leads the NBA with 103.6 touches per game.
Jamal Murray is a viable pivot in tournaments, but he’s averaged under a fantasy point per minute (0.95) over the last two weeks, so you should be prepared to stomach a heap of risk at his $8,200 tag. Much of this volatility stems from the fact that Michael Porter Jr. has become more involved, averaging 1.14 DKP/min over that span and scoring at least 20 raw points in three of his last five games. He makes for an appealing tournament play both with and without Jokic in your lineup.
