NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Mar. 2

Once expected to be a seven-game main slate, the NBA DFS slate for Tuesday has dropped to six games with the COVID-19-related postponement of the Pistons/Raptors game.

As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.

Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. 

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Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards

MEM -1, total: 236

The Grizzlies have been a rather wishy-washy team to target this season, but they finally step into an elite fantasy environment, as this game is tied for the highest total on the slate.

At their prices, this makes Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas extremely hard to fade. While Morant’s production has been up and down as of late, the tight spread should ensure a full workload. This is really all you need when you factor in his 28.3% usage rate and 36.3% assist rate on the season. Valanciunas has been a bit less volatile and comes in as a higher priority for me on Tuesday. Per advanced DvP, the Wizards rank 25th against skilled centers and 26th against scorers, making this a smash spot for the point-per-minute machine.

With Grayson Allen ruled out, we can go right back to the well with both Dillon Brooks (13-plus field goal attempts in nine of his last 10 games) and Desmond Bane, who started for Allen last game. Both are priced at a point where 8-10x upside is within the range of outcomes. If you want to pivot off those two for Memphis value, De'Anthony Melton makes sense, but his $4,600 price tag is a bit more restricting than Bane’s for $1,200 less.

Obviously, with so much love for the Memphis side of this game, it only makes sense to have some interest in Washington as well. Both stars here are viable, but I’ll continue to prioritize whoever is cheaper between Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal. On Tuesday, that option is Beal for $9,700. While his peripheral ceiling isn’t quite as high as Westbrook’s, he’s still posted at least six rebounds or assists in eight of his last 10 games.

I’m OK with passing on the rest of the Wizards players and getting my value exposure to this game on the Memphis side, as the presence of both Westbrook and Beal makes it hard to trust the ceilings of the players around them.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Boston Celtics

LAC -4, total: 222.5

Jaylen Brown sat out in the Celtics last game and is listed as questionable once again, which could lead to a similar rotation that we saw on Sunday. In that game, we saw both Kemba Walker (28.4% usage rate, 36.4% assist rate, 1.32 DKP/min Sunday) and Jayson Tatum (30.0% usage rate, 11.9% rebounding rate, 1.32 DKP/min Sunday) step up in his absence. If Brown misses another game, it’d be easy to project the same type of roles for each of these players. While they would be viable options, they wouldn’t be as big of priorities in a matchup with the Clippers Tuesday.

The potential absence of Jaylen Brown would also hamper a Celtics defense that has already allowed 116.3 points per game over their last three games, a 5.9-point uptick from their season average. This would obviously help both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, who are both way too cheap given the close-spread and role that they have. Of the two, my preference is Leonard at $8,800 assuming he’s tasked with stopping Tatum. $8,800, in general, is far too cheap, but this is a matchup where we can confidently project 35-plus minutes. George is an elite play at his price of $8,400 as well if looking to pivot off Leonard.

Serge Ibaka is the only other Clippers player that I have interest in, as his $4,800 follows suit with his teammates as being a touch too cheap. He’s topped 27 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and will likely be on the court quite a bit to combat the size of Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson, giving him nice security at his price.

Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat

MIA -4, total: 220.5

This is a matchup we saw a mere two days ago that played without Jimmy Butler, who is questionable ahead of Tuesday’s tilt. In his absence, we saw Kendrick Nunn (24 points, seven assists, 33 minutes) take a leap forward in his 33 minutes. Assuming Butler is out and Nunn draws another start, he’d be a great mid-tier option. I would also be open to going back to the well with Bam Adebayo and Goran Dragic. Both saw 29 or more minutes in their last game, while Dragic has a team-high 29% usage rate without Butler this season and Adebayo holds a 26.4% usage rate, 31.2% assist rate and 17% rebounding rate.

If Butler is in, that obviously knocks the appeal of these guys a bit, but this matchup is enticing enough where they should still be in your player pool. Butler, himself, would be an elite play should he be able to suit up.

On the Atlanta side, it’s yet another slate where it’s hard for me to go anywhere on this team outside of Trae Young, John Collins and Clint Capela. While Young had a floor-game in their last game, he was still able to record 40 DK points thanks to his peripheral production. If I’m getting 40 DK points out of a $9,600 star when they shoot 3-of-14 from the field, that’s a play that I feel extremely safe about. 

Collins’ price on DraftKings refuses to catch up to his production, as he’s hovered at or above 6x his current price tag in back-to-back games, most recently coming off of a 34-point, 10-rebound game. If fading Young and chasing Hawks exposure, Collins makes sense. If playing Young, Capela is always a viable stacking option given their tendency to run the pick-and-roll together.

Kevin Huerter is also a viable value play, especially on FanDuel where you’re forced to roster two shooting guards, as his minutes should remain secure as long as Cam Reddish and De'Andre Hunter remain out.

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -2.5, total: 216.5

The Spurs come into this game as 2.5-point favorites after an overtime loss to the Nets, so there’s potential that we see a bit of fatigue out of the gate. There is also the potential that we see LaMarcus Aldridge sit out on the second leg of a back-to-back, while the Spurs could get Keldon Johnson back for the first time in over two weeks.

Regardless of the status of those two, both Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan are viable here. While the matchup isn’t the greatest and there’s the chance for fatigue, the backcourt remains depleted enough where they should continue to carry the rates that they have for the past two games (Murray: 28.8% assist rate, 1.12 DKP/min; DeRozan: 30.2% usage rate, 43.5% assist rate, 1.14 DKP/min).

The Knicks side is a bit more enticing, as Elfrid Payton being deemed doubtful should open up another great opportunity for Derrick Rose. While his price has been rising, he’s stepped up and justified it in Payton’s absence over the last three games, posting 16.3 points, 7.3 assists, 2.3 rebounds and 1.3 steals in 32.5 minutes per game over that stretch. He comes in as my favorite mid-tier play on the slate.

Immanuel Quickley is a great tournament pivot off Rose if you are fine stomaching extreme volatility, as we’ve seen him score 25 raw points in 20 minutes a mere three games ago in Payton’s absence. RJ Barrett and Julius Randle are also viable on this slate. Barrett has quietly strung together a pair of games over 36 DraftKings points while Randle has topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games while seeing at least 38 minutes in back-to-back games.

Nerlens Noel is the other Knicks player I have my eyes on, particularly on FanDuel. His price hasn’t moved much out of the low-to-mid $5,000 range ($5,500 Tuesday) and his ceiling based on steals/blocks alone (six total last game) gives him a heap of upside on a site that rewards that type of production. The fact that he’s a power forward on FanDuel may push some ownership his way, but I’m OK eating some of it seeing that he’s played 80 total minutes over his last two games.

Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -6.5, total: 236

Perhaps the most exciting game of the evening, there is a very high chance that my star of choice comes from this game. Nikola Jokic went scorched-earth against the Bulls Monday night, posting 39 points, 14 rebounds, nine assists and a trio of stocks. While his last three games against the Bucks have left a bit to be desired (by Jokic’s standards), averaging 30 points, 10.3 rebounds and 7.3 assists, he’s still the top overall option at center in a game that carries a massive total and a spread that could end up shrinking.

Jamal Murray and Michael Porter are both viable once again, but I would reserve them for GPPs, based on Porter’s volatility and Murray having to deal with the return of Jrue Holiday. Will Barton would be the other Nuggets player that I target, as his FanDuel price ($4,900) is far from reflective of his ceiling, especially with JaMychal Green and Paul Millsap still out.

For the Bucks, it’s hard to not dub Giannis Antetokounmpo as the top overall play on the slate on Tuesday. He’s topped 60 FanDuel points in eight of his last 10 games with four of those games going for over 70. He’s also topped 30 raw points against the Nuggets in back-to-back outings and has a 70.7-FanDuel-point outing in one of those games.

If not playing Giannis, I’ll always advocate that you hedge with Khris Middleton, especially in a matchup where he could see some Porter on the defensive end. While it’s likely they switch Barton onto him, this is still an exploitable matchup. Jrue Holiday becomes an interesting option if he re-enters the starting lineup, as his defensive peripheral upside would skyrocket in a matchup with Murray, which also happens to be one he can take advantage of on the offensive end as well. If he comes off the bench again, however, he’s an easy fade.

Both Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo are interesting tournament plays as well, as Donte has recently flashed a massive ceiling while Lopez’s size is going to be needed to combat Jokic down low. If he can get to 30 minutes, his price is far too cheap.

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -2, total: 215

The nightcap is a game that caters more to the fandom of basketball than it does DFS upside, as the 215 total is one of the lowest on the slate, and the Suns defense is never one that I try and attack. Because of this, I can’t endorse LeBron James as a priority spend-up like I have been over the past few slates, especially considering the environments that other studs on the slate find themselves in. He is, however, always viable in large-field tournaments at what should be lower-ownership on Tuesday.

Because of the matchup, I’m full-fading the rest of the Lakers team.

I also don’t have a ton of interest in the Suns here. The Lakers’ interior defense is noticeably worse without Anthony Davis, which should free up room for Deandre Ayton to operate. At $6,700, he’s one player on the Suns that’s shaping up to be a tournament priority for me, as he’s posted 39+ DK points in back-to-back outings. You can also get away with Chris Paul and Devin Booker, with the former being a rock-solid cash-game play once again. He’s now topped 40 DK points in three straight games and has seen his price drop $300.