Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Is there a sport crazier than the NBA? The answer is no. Slates continue to get absolutely transformed after the countless bits of news, whether it is injuries, trades or coronavirus-related situations.
Thursday’s five-game DFS slate is really interesting because it features two teams that were involved in Wednesday’s blockbuster deal, which impacts a ton in fantasy.
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Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -10, total: 222.5
We just saw this game the other night and not too much has changed, honestly.
The Heat are still missing essentially all of their players, with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Kendrick Nunn, Avery Bradley and Mo Harkless all ruled out once again. In the last game, the Heat started Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa and Kelly Olynyk, while only running eight players in their rotation. At $7,300 on DraftKings, Herro is still firmly in play, as he’s coming off a game where he played 39 minutes and sported a 33% usage rate. Herro also touched the basketball 92 times Monday night, obviously up from his 63.1 touches per game over the course of the season. He possessed the ball for 7.8 minutes against the 76ers, while he was insanely aggressive, driving to the basket 27 times. With this type of usage and minutes, matchup needs to be thrown out the window.
Speaking of minutes, Duncan Robinson played 46 of them in Miami’s last game, though overtime obviously helped that. Still, we are looking at 41 minutes without the extra period, while Robinson attempted 18 shots. This is a sneaky good spot for him, as the 76ers are coughing up a league-leading 8.2 points per game off screens this season, while also allowing the second-highest field goal percentage (53.6%) and second-most points per possession (1.24) to the play type. Robinson, meanwhile, is averaging 2.0 points per game off screens, while his 1.31 points per possession off the play type is one of the best marks in basketball. You can also go right back to Gabe Wincent, who took 20 shots in his start against the 76ers the other night and is still just $4,200 on DraftKings. Meanwhile, the rookie Achiuwa grabbed 13 rebounds last game, seeing a whopping 23 rebounding chances per game. He can pick up a handful of peripherals and would probably be my third- or fourth-favorite member of this Heat team Thursday.
The Sixers are a little different, as they are finally getting closer to full strength. Tobias Harris and Shake Milton are probable for this game, while Seth Curry is still out. Joel Embiid remains a very strong play, despite the return of Harris and Milton. He’s dominated the season, sporting a 31% usage rate and 37% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.60 fantasy points per minute. He is also still sporting a usage rate north of 27% with both Harris and Ben Simmons on the floor this year, while the matchup is obviously much better with Adebayo and company out of the lineup. Milton could be a sneaky option here, as more minutes are up for grabs with Curry and his 30 minutes per game out of the lineup. Milton sees a 4% usage bump with Curry off the floor this season, sitting at 25.9% in the split. He is also averaging over a fantasy point per minute and this matchup isn’t bad, as Miami ranks 22nd against primary ball handlers and 21st against opposing bench players. The Heat also allow the eighth-most points per game to opposing bench units and again, they are totally depleted.
Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -8, total: 225
Charlotte is coming off the front end of a back-to-back, and I think this game could be a lot more interesting than many might realize. Toronto’s defense hasn’t been nearly as good this season, ranking 22nd in defensive rating thus far. They have also struggled against wings, surrendering the third-most points per game to opposing small forwards (24.8). That bodes well for Gordon Hayward, while the Raptors are also allowing the 10th-highest field goal percentage off handoffs this season. Hayward, meanwhile, is averaging two points per game off hand offs this year, tied for the ninth-most in basketball. However, he suffered a hip injury Wednesday night and could miss this game. I thought Terry Rozier could be very sneaky here, but he’d get more attention if Hayward sits out. His usage rate is pushing 28% with Hayward off the floor, while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. Rozier is still starting and playing just over 32 minutes per game. He is averaging a healthy 5.8 spot-up points per game on the year, good for the 13th-most in the league to this point. Rozier is also shooting 50% off spot-ups this season, while the Raptors continue to allow a ton of points to spot-up shooters. After ranking bottom-three in the league against the play type last year, Toronto is coughing up the second-most points per game to spot-up shooters this season (35.5). The Raptors also rank 23rd against scorers and dead last against shooters on the year
Meanwhile, I like the upside for LaMelo Ball on most slates and over the last week or so, he’s been much more involved. Over the last two weeks, Ball is second in the Hornets in usage rate at just over 23 percent, while his 29% usage rate during that span is the second-highest mark on the team. And over his last seven games, LaMelo is averaging around 13 rebounding opportunities per game, which just points to his ability to contribute in every single category. However, $7,600 on DraftKings is a little scary when you consider that he is still coming off the bench and splitting minutes with Devonte’ Graham and Rozier. This is a price tag I’ll have zero issue paying if Ball was starting or if one of Rozier or Graham were inactive. But I’m a tad hesitant at the moment unless Hayward is ruled out.
Toronto, meanwhile, switched their starting lineup again in their last game, but it didn’t involve moving Chris Boucher into the starting lineup. Boucher continues to dominate here in 2021, averaging a team-high 1.31 fantasy points per minute, while sporting a 28% rebounding rate. Boucher’s per-36 minutes are absurd, as he’s averaging 23.2 points, 10.1 rebounds and 4.2 blocks per game in the split. While he still isn’t starting, Boucher’s minutes are trending upward, as he played a season-high 32 minutes last game. We could see him play 30-plus minutes again here, as Charlotte has used P.J. Washington as a small ball center very often this season, which would benefit Boucher. Boucher should be able to use his athleticism to take advantage of this weak Charlotte interior that is surrendering the sixth-most points per game off putbacks this season (6.9), while Boucher’s 2.6 putback points per contest are the 11th-most in the league. I have a lot of GPP interest in Boucher here.
I also have some interest in Pascal Siakam, who has been much better as of late, averaging 23.6 points, 9.6 rebounds, 6.2 assists and 48.5 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. The peripherals, especially assists, have been much better for Siakam as of late. Kyle Lowry, meanwhile, still leads the Raptors in touches per game (82.8), good for the 11th-most in basketball to this point. The minutes are so secure for Lowry, Siakam and Fred VanVleet, while the same can be said for OG Anunoby, who doesn’t offer the same ceiling.
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
SAS -7, total: 219
The NBA is truly, truly the best television show on the planet.
Houston shook the entire landscape of the league Wednesday afternoon, trading James Harden to the Brooklyn Nets in a huge multi-team deal. In terms of players for this season, the Rockets only brought in Victor Oladipo in the trade, who won’t be ready to make his Houston debut Thursday night. And on top of losing Harden, the Rockets have already ruled out John Wall (knee), while Eric Gordon is once again questionable with a lower leg injury. We should be able to find plenty of value from the Rockets, and if Gordon is healthy enough to suit up, you have to love him here. Over his last 14 games with Harden sidelined, Gordon is averaging 35.2 DK points per contest, but there is obviously immense upside for more, especially with Wall also out. He is also averaging right around 18 shot attempts per game in that stretch and with Harden off the floor last season, Gordon saw a 5.1% usage bump, putting him just over 27% in the split, while averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute. Harden and Wall rank first and sixth in isolation possessions per game this season, so this Houston offense is going to look much different tonight. Christian Wood has been scoring out of the pick and roll a ton, averaging a league-high 8.0 points per game as the roll man this season. However, the Rockets could run far less pick and roll without their top two playmakers, which could lead to more isolations and post-ups from Wood, while the usage should also climb.
Meanwhile, we should see some value open up in Houston, as Sterling Brown, Ben McLemore and David Nwaba all become viable plays under $4,000 on DraftKings. Brown would be my pick to handle the ball more over the other two players but the minutes and opportunity for shot attempts should be there for all of them. DeMarcus Cousins isn’t a lock to see more minutes with Wall and Harden out, but his usage could be through the roof in the minutes he does get. I’d consider him in tournaments at just $4,700 and if the Rockets finally decide to play him alongside Wood, he could absolutely go crazy here.
The Spurs could once again be without DeMar DeRozan, who has been away from the team for the last two games for personal reasons. During that span we have seen LaMarcus Aldridge look more like the player of old, especially regarding his usage. Over the last two games, no player in basketball is averaging more post-ups per game than Aldridge, while his usage rate with DeRozan off the floor this season is hovering around the 28% mark. This is another favorable spot for the veteran, as the Rockets are coughing up the most post-up points per game this season (8.9), while opposing offenses are posting up 8.9% of the time against Houston, good for the highest rate in basketball. Meanwhile, I once again really like Lonnie Walker, who sees a team-leading 6.9% usage bump with DeRozan off the floor this season. He’s scored 25 and 24 real points over his last two games, while attempting 15 and 19 shots during that span.
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets
DEN -5, total: 229
Stephen Curry hasn’t been all that great in three of his last four games, scoring under 35 fantasy points three times. However, this is a very good bounceback spot for him, facing a Denver defense that has underwhelmed this season, allowing the third-most points per game (27.4) to opposing point guards thus far. Per advanced DvP, they also rank 26th against primary ball-handlers and 29th against scorers, while also allowing the sixth-most points per game off of screens (5.3) to go along with the eighth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (44.2%). Outside of Curry, Golden State isn’t too appealing, as Andrew Wiggins is someone I struggle to play when he’s near $7,000, while Kelly Oubre is cheap, but his production hasn’t been great, especially since Draymond Green returned. He isn’t playing as much power forward with Green active, while his rebound rate drops to 18% with Draymond on the floor. Draymond is the other Warrior I’d consider, as he’s still pretty cheap at $5,400 on DraftKings and is locked into 30-32 minutes. He has flirted with triple-doubles in each of his last two games and over the last three contests, Green leads the Warriors in assist points created per game (18.7).
Nikola Jokic is expensive ($11,000) but why shouldn’t he be? He’s been the best player in basketball so far this season, averaging a triple-double, while he’s averaging 104.1 touches per game, good for the 2nd-most in the NBA. This is a huge pace-up spot for Denver, as they rank 25th in the league in pace, while the Warriors are second in basketball in that department. I think pairing him with Jamal Murray and running it back with Curry makes a lot of sense, especially with Murray’s price as low as it is. He’s been disappointing so far this season, but I’d be willing to buy-low on an immensely talented player in a great matchup.
Indiana Pacers @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -2.5, total: 228.5
The Pacers made a terrific trade Wednesday, moving Victor Oladipo to the Rockets for Caris LeVert. Of course, LeVert won’t be able to make his Pacers debut Thursday, and with TJ Warren already out, the Pacers find themselves missing some high-usage scorers. That only solidifies both Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon, who have been fantastic this season. They rank first (105.3) and fourth (94.8) in the league in touches per game on the season, while Brogdon trails only Luka Doncic in average time of possession per game (8.0 minutes). With Warren and Oladipo off the floor this season, Sabonis is sporting a 29.5% usage rate, 37% rebounding rate and 18% assist rate, while averaging 1.40 fantasy points per minute. Brogdon, meanwhile, is sporting a 28.3% usage rate and 22% assist rate in the split, while averaging 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Both are very, very good plays in this spot. Meanwhile, Aaron Holiday is coming off a huge game and could enter the starting lineup with Oladipo gone. He makes for a viable mid-tier value play tonight, while perhaps T.J. McConnell is worth a look at minimum salary.
I’m OK with the Portland players here, as both Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum are coming off huge games. McCollum has been fantastic this season and is probably a bit too cheap at $8,400 on DraftKings. Jusuf Nurkic was questionable to play Wednesday night but suited up, logging 30 minutes, his second-most minutes in a game this season. He had a very strong game, scoring 18 points to go along with 12 rebounds, three blocks and two steals. If he plays on the second end of a back-to-back, it will be tough to overlook him at $5,300, which is too cheap, despite how up-and-down Nurkic has been this season. Of course, if he sits, Enes Kanter could smash, as they’d need him to play strong minutes to counter Sabonis and Myles Turner on the other side. With Nurkic off the floor this season, Kanter is sporting a massive 49% rebounding rate, while averaging 1.30 fantasy points per minute.
