Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have already seen a game from Tuesday night’s NBA slate get postponed, while we have another scenario where a team is going to be incredibly short-handed due to the league’s health protocols. It continues to be a lot to keep track of, but it also presents fantasy players with an opportunity to take advantage of really, really tight rotations, opening up a ton of value.
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Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers
PHI -7; total: 209.5
I don’t think we have to get too cute with the Miami roster, right? Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Avery Bradley, Kendrick Nunn, Moe Harkless and Meyers Leonard are all unavailable for this game due to health protocols. That gives us another opportunity to take advantage of a team that is forced to run an incredibly tight rotation. Normally, I like to go in-depth with my analysis with advanced stats, trends and correlations. However, at the end of the day, minutes are the most important thing in NBA DFS and everyone available for the Heat Tuesday will be on the floor a ton. Feel free to roster almost anyone from this team, though I’d obviously rank Tyler Herro at the top, as well as one of the best plays of the entire slate. $6,700 may seem like a lot on the surface but given the circumstance, I’d pay $8,000 for Herro in this spot. Other than that, Duncan Robinson, Kelly Olynyk, Andre Iguodala, Precious Achiuwa are all extremely, extremely viable.
The 76ers know a thing or two about being short-handed, but they should be getting some help Tuesday. Ben Simmons is expected to return to the lineup, though the team is still going to be without Tobias Harris, Seth Curry, Shake Milton and a few others. This game has a low total because of so many players being out, but the minutes across the board are going to be so easy to project, while Miami’s defense obviously takes a massive hit with Adebayo and Butler sidelined. Feel free to go right back to Joel Embiid, too, who would have absolutely smashed if Monday’s game didn’t get out of hand, limiting him to just 23 minutes.
Denver Nuggets @ Brooklyn Nets
BK -1; total: 231
Kyrie Irving has already been ruled out for the Nets, which will make it four consecutive missed games for the superstar guard. Brooklyn did get Kevin Durant back in the last game against the Thunder, scoring 36 points to go along with 11 rebounds and four assists in 38 minutes. Durant posted a 35.2% usage rate in his last game and with Irving off the floor so far this season, that usage rate is just over 36 percent, while Durant is averaging 1.61 fantasy points per minute. $9,400 on DraftKings is too cheap for Durant, especially with Irving sidelined. The Nuggets rank 28th against superstars, 29th against point forwards and 29th against scorers this season, per advanced DvP, making this a very strong spot for Durant to have another huge game. Of course, Caris LeVert is also firmly in play with Kyrie out and Spencer Dinwiddie done for the season. He remained in the starting lineup last game and while he’d see more usage coming off the bench, LeVert is handling the ball a ton as the team’s starting point guard, touching the ball 83 times against the Thunder the other night. LeVert is attacking the rim at a high rate, as his 14.7 drives per game are currently the 11th-most in basketball, which could bode well for him against a Denver defense that is surrendering the second-highest field goal percentage at the rim (72.5%).
That also helps someone like Jarrett Allen, who is averaging 3.2 points per game off cuts this season, good for the 10th-most in the NBA. He is sporting a healthy 24.1% frequency rate off the play type while shooting over 70% off cuts. Allen has been separating himself from DeAndre Jordan as of late, averaging just over 28 minutes per game over his last six games. The $6,500 price tag is a bit scary considering Jordan is still in the mix but there is plenty of GPP upside for Allen in this spot.
Meanwhile, the minutes for the Denver players from the last game were down but only because the game got out of hand, keeping the starters out of the game in the fourth quarter. In fact, the Denver starters haven’t played the fourth quarter in two straight games now. Nikola Jokic is seemingly always in play, as he continues to lead the NBA in touches per game (103.8), while sporting a 28.8% usage rate, 32% rebounding rate and 30% assist rate. He does a lot of his work from the post and off handoffs and while Brooklyn has been strong at defending both play types so far this season, they are allowing the most points per game off putbacks this season (8.0), while Jokic is fifth in the league, averaging 3.1 putback points per contest. Jokic is the easy one but I’ve had trouble with Jamal Murray, who has a massive ceiling but has been pretty underwhelming so far this season. He’s been held under 30 fantasy points in four games this season and this isn’t exactly the greatest matchup, as the Nets are allowing the third-fewest real points per game to opposing point guards this year (19.4).
Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers
UTA -10.5; total: 205.5
This is the second end of a back-to-back for a banged-up Cavaliers squad. Collin Sexton appeared to be on track to return Monday night but was a late scratch, as his ankle wasn’t feeling quite right. We’ll see if he can get back into the lineup here, but if he can’t, expect to see another start from Damyean Dotson, who has started each of the last three games, logging 37, 41 and 35 minutes. His usage rate (unsurprisingly) jumps up by 4% with Sexton, Darius Garland and Kevin Love off the floor this season. If Sexton is good to go, I do like him here at $6,600 on DK. He is sporting a 28% usage rate with Love and Garland off the floor, while averaging right around a fantasy point per minute in the split, while Sexton is averaging over 18 shot attempts per game on the young season. Andre Drummond, meanwhile, is seeing a ton of usage and obviously has as much rebounding upside as anyone in basketball. And this is an interesting matchup, as the Cavs will need him in a huge way to help counter Rudy Gobert on the other side. Those two currently rank first and third in paint touches per game, respectively, so Drumond will be around the rim all game long. He isn’t a core play for me in this tough matchup, as the Jazz rank inside the top-eight against both rim protectors and skilled centers.
The Jazz find themselves in a strong spot here, facing a tired Cavaliers team. Cleveland does actually rank inside the top-five in defensive rating so far this season, though I believe they are playing above their head, while they haven’t faced many strong teams. Utah players aren’t very cheap on this slate, as both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert are over $8,000, while Mike Conley is just over $7,000. Conley has a strong 24% assist rate with Joe Ingles (questionable) off the court this season, as he continues to run a lot of the pick-and-roll for Utah. He has a 43.9% frequency rate as the primary pick and roll ball handler, the 15th-highest mark in basketball, which is one of the reasons we’ve seen a lot closer fantasy numbers between Conley and Mitchell this season. Meanwhile, Bojan Bogdanovic is only $5,200 on DK, mainly because he’s had a handful of poor outings. That is mostly due to his overall lack of peripherals, though this could be a good scoring game for Bogdanovic, as the Cavaliers are allowing 4.3 three-pointers per game to opposing power forwards this season, the most in basketball.
San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder
SAS -2.5; total: 216.5
DeMar DeRozan was away from the team for a personal matter Sunday and will remain out of the lineup against the Thunder. In that game over the weekend, Trey Lyles entered the starting lineup at power forward and logged 35 minutes. The production wasn’t incredible but at $3,300 on DraftKings, he has to be worth a look again Tuesday. With DeRozan off the floor this season, Lonnie Walker’s usage rate jumps up by 8.7% to a 28.7% mark, while averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute. I like him quite a bit at $5,400, while we can finally feel good about playing LaMarcus Aldridge. The veteran finally played huge minutes in his last game (37), while attempting 21 shots. His usage rate climbs by 5% with DeRozan off the floor this season (29.9%), while averaging over a fantasy point per minute. With DeRozan and his 5.0 isolation points per game (2nd-most) out of the lineup, expect the Spurs to continue to play through the post with Aldridge, who posted up an insane 17 times in their last game. That bodes well with a matchup against the Thunder, a unit that is allowing the fifth-most points per game to the post (6.3), as well as the fifth-highest field goal percentage (58.1%). Oh, and the Thunder also rank 29th against skilled centers and dead last against stretch bigs this season.
Of course, you can also consider Keldon Johnson and Dejounte Murray, too. You’d like to see Johnson attempt more than six shots, but he’s been a very strong rebounder all year long, while the minutes should be strong, as the Spurs only ran a nine-man rotation in their last game without DeRozan.
Once again, I’m not crazy about the Thunder here. Outside of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (27.6%), Oklahoma City just doesn’t have any high-usage players. Meanwhile, their starters outside of SGA and Darius Bazley really don’t play huge minutes, as this is still a rebuilding team, so veterans like George Hill and Al Horford don’t need to play 35 minutes or anything close to it. I will have some exposure to SGA, however, as he’s dominating the basketball this season, averaging 80.6 touches per game and 7.4 minutes of possession per game, the fifth-highest mark in the league. The Spurs, meanwhile, are playing much faster this season, while they have struggled to defend players with the same archetypes as Gilgeous-Alexander.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
LAL -5.5; total: 223.5
These teams just met the other night, and the Lakers handled business fairly easily. Once again, I have interest in Anthony Davis at under $10,000 on DraftKings. Houston is 26th against scorers, 27th against crafty finishers and 30th against rebounders so far this season. The Rockets are also coughing up the second-most points per game to the post (7.3), while opposing teams are posting up 8.2% of the time, the highest rate in the league. Davis, meanwhile, is posting up nearly 20% of the time this season, while his 4.0 post-up points per game are tied for the seventh-most in basketball. Of course, you can play LeBron James if you want, who is always a safe play and is reasonably priced across the industry. And while I love Montrezl Harrell as a player, it is hard for me to consider him when the Lakers are at full strength, especially on a site like DraftKings where he is only eligible at center, which is often an absolutely loaded position.
John Wall is questionable to play in this game with a migraine, while Eric Gordon is also questionable. This would be huge for James Harden, as his usage rate isn’t anything to write home about when Wall is on the floor, sitting at just over 25%. However, with Wall off the floor this season, that usage rate jumps up to 33.7%, while he’s averaging 1.65 fantasy points per minute and sporting a 30% assist rate. That is notable when you consider that Harden’s rebounding production has dropped this season, as the Rockets have had either Christian Wood or DeMarcus Cousins on the floor the majority of the time, as opposed to the second half of last season when PJ Tucker and Robert Covington were operating as the centers for Houston. Harden hasn’t had one of those monster games since the end of December, but I’d bet he posts one if Wall sits out, especially against a Lakers defense that is allowing the third-highest field goal percentage against isolations this season (46.8%).
Meanwhile, if Gordon can’t play, David Nwaba, though likely very little usage, could become a value play, especially since Danuel House has already been ruled out. He’s been starting but now could actually log 25-30 minutes at a $3,300 price tag. Christian Wood has shown a real ceiling this season and they will need him to combat the Lakers size. We’ll see how many minutes Cousins plays this time around, assuming he isn’t ejected again. He played just eight minutes before being tossed from the game the other night.
Indiana Pacers @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -2; total: 228
Stephen Curry really struggled in his last game, shooting 2-of-16 from the field and 1-of-10 from beyond the arc. A repeat performance seems unlikely and you can go back to him if you want. The Pacers are surrendering the eighth-most points per possession to shooters off screens this season (1.09), while Curry is averaging 3.7 points per game off screens so far this year, good for the second-most in the NBA. I am also perfectly fine with Draymond Green, who is coming off his best performance of the season, scoring 10 points, while adding nine rebounds and 10 assists. It was your usual Draymond stat line, finishing one assist shy of a triple-double. He has that potential and is still at a solid price point, while the Pacers rank 21st against skilled centers so far this season.
We could see Victor Oladipo rest in this game, as he’s played in all but one game so far this season. If he sits on the second end of a back-to-back, Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis become even more trustworthy as fantasy options, especially when you consider that the Pacers are already without TJ Warren. With both Oladipo and Warren off the floor this season, Brogdon’s usage rate is just over 27%, while he easily leads the team with a 25% assist rate. This is already a player who is averaging 7.9 minutes of possession per game this season, second to only Dallas’ Luka Doncic, while his 93.5 touches per game rank fifth in the league. Sabonis, meanwhile, leads the NBA in touches per game (105.0), while sporting a 31.3% usage rate and averaging 1.49 fantasy points per minute with Warren and Oladipo off the floor this season. If Oladipo sits, you could also look to Doug McDermott, who is already seeing a bump in minutes with Warren sidelined and is averaging just under a fantasy point per minute with Warren and Oladipo off the floor. This is a nice pace-up spot for the Pacers, facing a Golden State team that leads the NBA in pace so far this season.
