Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
When playing NBA DFS, you always need to make sure you are paying attention to the news throughout the day but especially this season. More and more teams are becoming short-handed due to COVID-19 protocols, which continues to open up a ton of value on these slates. That is the case tonight, as we have eight games on tap.
New York Knicks @ Charlotte Hornets
CHA -4.5, 211 total
This is the second end of a back-to-back for New York, which is normally a spot where we have to worry about minutes or players potentially resting. However, that likely isn’t the case with Tom Thibodeau, who is playing his starters massive minutes, especially RJ Barrett and Julius Randle, who rank first and second in minutes per game. I talked about Randle over the weekend but until his price point gets to an egregious level, you have to consider him seemingly every single slate with how involved he is. Randle is inside the top-10 among all players in touches (92.3), rebounding chances (20.3) and post-ups per game (8.6) while his usage rate is hovering around the 28 percent mark. This is an incredible spot for him to continue his career season, as the Hornets are surrendering the second-most points (25.5), seventh-most rebounds (11.9) and second-most assists (5.03) per game to opposing power forwards on the season while we know how involved Randle is in terms of peripherals. Randle remains the top play from this team but $7,100 for Barrett on DraftKings is still a fair price, especially when you consider that he has logged at least 38 minutes in five of 10 games so far this season. He’s been a fairly productive rebounder, sporting a solid 19 percent rebounding rate so far.
I also have a ton of tournament interest in center Mitchell Robinson, who has seen his price come down a bit. Whenever he is in that mid $5,000 range on DraftKings, Robinson definitely piques my interest. He’s played one game with zero days rest this season and played 35 minutes, which is even more encouraging when you consider that backup center Nerlens Noel also played in that game, logging 13 minutes. Robinson hasn’t seen a lot of usage in this offense, sporting an ugly 11.3 percent usage rate, however, he has paired it with a strong 28 percent rebounding rate while averaging two blocks per game. The Hornets interior can be had while they also are allowing seven points per game off putbacks this season, tied for the fifth-most in the league. That bodes well for a player like Robinson, who is sporting a frequency rate north of 38 percent off putbacks while averaging 2.3 points per game off the play type.
For Charlotte, LaMelo Ball is coming off his best day as a pro, notching his first career triple-double against the Hawks (22 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists). Over his last seven games, Ball is averaging 16 points, 7.4 rebounds and 7.1 assists per game while leading the Hornets in touches per game during that span (72.3). And in that same stretch, Ball is averaging 18.4 assist points created per contest. He’s still coming off the bench, but he should once again play 30-32 minutes and faces a Knicks defense that ranks 23rd against dimers and 28th against rebounders on the season. Meanwhile, P.J. Washington is logging huge minutes in close games and ever since the Hornets lost Cody Zeller, Washington has been playing a ton of small ball five, giving him more of a rebounding ceiling. I view him as more of a cash game play at his elevated price tag, however.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers
CLE -2.5, 218.5 total
Collin Sexton is once again questionable with an ankle injury that has sidelined him over the last two games. During that span, the Cavaliers have been starting Damyean Dotson, who has logged 35 and 41 minutes in those two contests. Darius Garland has already been ruled out for this game and with Sexton, Garland and Kevin Love off the floor this season, Cedi Osman’s usage rate jumps up to 27.8 percent. Especially with Garland out, Osman has taken on a larger role as a facilitator, recording seven assists in three of his last four games. He’s a very solid option if Sexton can’t return but is still in play regardless due to Garland’s absence. Of course, the top fantasy option from this team continues to be Andre Drummond, who is coming off a 26-point, 24-rebound game the other night. Drummond’s 22 rebounding chances per game are good for the third-most in basketball this season, and he’s converting a whopping 69.1 percent of his opportunities. We saw Drummond go for nearly 48 fantasy points the last time these teams met and we could see him thrive in the pick-and-roll this time around, as the Grizzlies are coughing up the highest field goal percentage in the league to opposing roll men out of the pick and roll (65.3%), as well as the sixth-most points per game (8.7).
The Grizzlies continue to be without Ja Morant, as they’ve relied on a handful of players to try and fill the void. Kyle Anderson has played a lot more point forward in Morant’s absence but has come back down to earth as of late, failing to reach 30 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Dillon Brooks still leads the team with a 30.1 percent usage rate with Morant off the floor while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. I really liked him the last time these teams met, but it didn’t pan out. Still, there is plenty of potential for him here again, as the Cavaliers are allowing 23.8 points per game off transition this season, good for the fourth-most in the league. Brooks, meanwhile, is averaging a solid 4.4 transition points per game. I am also going right back to Jonas Valanciunas here, who will return to the Grizzlies starting five. Cleveland ranks 28th against skilled centers this season while also ranking 21st against rebounders. Drummond is always around the rim, averaging 12.4 paint touches per game, the most in basketball.
Phoenix Suns @ Washington Wizards
The Wizards will be missing some key players for this game. Russell Westbrook has already been ruled out with a quad injury while Thomas Bryant suffered a torn ACL, ending his season. Bradley Beal is already on absolute fire right now, scoring over 100 real points over his last two games and although he is nearly $10,000 on DraftKings, he will be tough to ignore here. In 40 minutes with Westbrook and Bryant off the court this season, Beal is sporting an absurd 43.2 percent usage rate while averaging 1.82 fantasy points per minute. Beal also leads the NBA in points per game off screens this season (5.2) while the Suns are coughing up the third-most points per game off screens (5.8), as well as the seventh-most points per possession (1.07).
Meanwhile, with Westbrook out, Raul Neto will draw another start. In three starts this season, Neto is averaging a respectable 13.3 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 11 field goal attempts per game. He also has a 26 percent usage rate with Westbrook and Bryant off the court this season. However, I’d also consider Ish Smith, as he is cheaper and generates a ton of assists. With Westbrook off the floor this season, his assist rate climbs to 23 percent. Finally, if you are looking for a value play, Robin Lopez should see an uptick in playing time with Bryant out. He played a season-high 21 minutes after Bryant left the game the other day and is averaging 0.90 fantasy points per minute while sporting a 19 percent rebounding rate with Russ and Bryant off the floor this season.
The Suns remain a bit tougher since they’re at full strength. Chris Paul projects as more of a cash play at $7,200, as he’s consistently playing 30-32 minutes and scoring 32-37 fantasy points. This is obviously a great matchup for Phoenix, facing a poor Wizards defense that is likely going to be even worse in this spot. Because the Suns have been getting contributions from seemingly everyone, we haven’t seen a ton of huge ceiling games from Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton. Booker is under $8,000 on DraftKings and likely won’t be popular but the ceilings games are going to be far less consistent as they were a season ago.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic
MIL -7
This game honestly isn’t too appealing to me tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is always in play, as he’s been very efficient once again, averaging 1.63 fantasy points per minute. He missed Saturday night’s game against the Cavaliers with a back injury but is probable to play against Orlando. He’s $11,000 on DraftKings and this is a slate with plenty of strong high-end options, making Giannis more of a secondary play than a priority. Brook Lopez has been playing 28-32 minutes lately and is still under $5,000 on DraftKings. If he falls into six or seven rebounds, he has a great chance of smashing that price tag given his ability to hit three-pointers and block shots.
For Orlando, we saw Aaron Gordon play a season-high 36 minutes in the team’s last game against the Mavericks. I have some tournament interest in him here, as we often see power forwards get the rebounding edge against the Bucks because opposing centers are often chasing Lopez at the three-point line, while Giannis is always attacking the basket.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Atlanta Hawks
ATL -6.5
The 76ers were incredibly short-handed in their last game, running a seven-man rotation. They have been the latest team to get hit with a wave of COVID-19 and while Joel Embiid will return tonight, Philadelphia will still be without Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, Shake Milton and Seth Curry. This is likely going to be an eight-man rotation and we just saw rookie Tyrese Maxey take advantage of his opportunity in the 76ers' last game, playing 44 minutes and scoring 61 fantasy points. He touched the ball 116 times in that game and possessed the ball for 10.6 minutes, which are obviously just massive numbers. Those numbers will clearly drop with Embiid back, as the team should play through the post with their star center, but Maxey is still going to log huge minutes and is too cheap given the circumstances. I just don’t see how you don’t lock in Maxey and Embiid on this slate. The Hawks are allowing the fifth-most points per possession to the post so far this season (1.10) while Embiid’s 8.0 post-up points per game lead the NBA. You can also look at Isaiah Joe at $4,100 on DraftKings, as he should still see 35-plus minutes. I’d much rather play him at his price than Danny Green at $4,700. Meanwhile, Mike Scott, who missed the last game with a knee injury, is probable and is minimum salary on DraftKings.
Atlanta obviously gets a boost with Simmons and company out, as one of the best defensive teams in basketball takes a significant hit. Trae Young hasn’t been great over his last two games but now doesn’t have to worry about Simmons defending him. Stacking Young with Embiid and Maxey on the other side makes a lot of sense tonight. Clint Capela, meanwhile, has been dominating the glass since making his season debut, hauling in double-digit rebounds in all but one game so far this season. He has a ridiculous 50 percent rebounding rate so far this season and if he can stay out of foul trouble against Embiid, he has the potential to haul in 15 or so rebounds. As a result, John Collins’ ceiling has taken a hit, as he has reached double-digit rebounds in just four of nine games.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -4, 215 total
Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable for this game and has a shot to make his season debut tonight. It still seems unlikely and even if Porzingis returns, it is almost guaranteed that he plays very limited minutes, meaning I have zero interest. Usually, Porzingis’ presence impacts Luka Doncic’s fantasy potential, but the Mavericks are also missing a handful of players, as Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson are all still out. Doncic touched the ball 113 times in his last game while possessing the ball for nearly 10 minutes. He also had a 36 percent usage rate in that game and at $11,300 on DK, Doncic is still going to be tough to ignore. We should see a ton of isolation from Luka, who is averaging four points per game off the play type this season. The Pelicans, meanwhile, are allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage off isolation this season (45.5%). Maxi Kleber (health protocol) is also questionable for this game and if he sits out, James Johnson should see an uptick in playing time, especially with Finney-Smith already out. Johnson played 26 minutes last game and scored over 28 fantasy points.
Tim Hardaway Jr. showed his ceiling last game, as he went off for 36 real points. After coming off the bench in the previous two games, Hardaway moved into the starting lineup with Dallas missing so many players. You can look to him again here, as the Pelicans are a bottom-10 defense against shooters off screens this season, while THJ is averaging two points per game off the play type, one of the higher marks in the league.
Steven Adams is questionable for this game and if he sits, we’d see another value player at center. Jaxson Hayes would likely start and with Adams off the floor this season, his rebounding rate jumps up to 34 percent. He remains a very low usage player but at just $3,100, you really don’t need much usage. Zion Williamson would also be a more consistent rebounder if Adams isn’t there and this could be a game where the Pelicans could play Zion at center plenty. A huge part of Williamson’s game is cutting to the basket with his athleticism, as Zion is averaging 4.4 points per game off cuts this season, good for the third-highest mark in basketball. That bodes well for a matchup with the Mavericks, a team allowing the highest field goal percentage in the league at the rim (73.1%).
Meanwhile, Brandon Ingram is really safe given his combination of minutes and usage. He’s logged at least 35 minutes in seven games this season, while sporting a strong 29.4 percent usage rate.
Toronto Raptors @ Portland Trail Blazers
POR -5, 230 total
Toronto made some changes to their starting lineup last game and while many expected it to include Chris Boucher starting at center, that sadly wasn’t the case. The Raptors started Pascal Siakam at the five while Norman Powell entered the starting lineup. Toronto went with a small lineup against the Kings, but I’m not sure they can do that against Portland tonight. Boucher continues to thrive off the bench, averaging 1.40 fantasy points per minute, the highest mark on the team. He just went for 37.5 fantasy points in just 24 minutes but is now up to $6,000 on DraftKings, which is still a bit scary, despite how insanely good he’s been. Pascal Siakam has been very good as of late, scoring 44.7, 51.2 and 51.7 fantasy points over his last three games. For the first time this season, I believe my favorite player from Toronto is Kyle Lowry, who is fairly-priced at $8,200 on DraftKings. The Raptors starters play so many minutes, while Portland has struggled to defend the dribble hand off this season, allowing the second-most points per game off the play type (8.0), as well as the second-highest frequency rate off the play type (6.9%). Lowry, meanwhile, is averaging 2.5 points per game off hand-offs this season, good for the eighth-most in basketball.
I’m not crazy about Portland in this game. Damian Lillard is $9,700 on DraftKings and with so many good players to choose from in that price range tonight, he doesn’t quite make the cut for me. CJ McCollum has been playing out of his mind this season but this just isn’t the spot or slate for me to pay nearly $9,000 for him.
Indiana Pacers @ Sacramento Kings
IND -5.5, 227 total
The Kings were without Richaun Holmes in their last game, which moved Marvin Bagley to center and rookie Tyrese Haliburton into the starting lineup. Holmes is questionable tonight with the same ankle injury and if he sits, we could see the same starting lineup for Sacramento. With Holmes off the floor this season, Bagley is sporting a healthy 26 percent usage rate and 26 percent rebounding rate, while averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute. The matchup isn’t incredible, but Bagley has shown signs of a ceiling this season and at $5,700, he’d be a very strong option if Holmes is out, while also remaining a player you can consider in tournaments if he plays. Hassan Whiteside also has to be in consideration if Holmes is out, as the veteran played a season-high 24 minutes last game. With Holmes off the floor, Whiteside’s usage rate jumps to 23.1 percent, while sporting a 36 percent rebounding rate and averaging 1.19 fantasy points per minute. Buddy Hield is also questionable for this game and if you take him and Holme off the court, De’Aaron Fox is sporting a usage rate north of 30 percent. Hield’s potential absence would also solidify Haliburton’s minutes.
If Holmes suits up in this game, Domantas Sabonis could break the slate. Why? Well, if Holmes is active, Bagley will remain at power forward and have to defend Sabonis. Considering Bagley is one of the worst defenders in all of basketball, that is a plus for Sabonis, who we know is heavily involved, averaging 104.1 touches per game this season, trailing only Nikola Jokic. The Kings are also coughing up the eighth-most post-up points per game this year (5.4), while Sabonis is averaging 8.8 post-ups per contest, good for the fifth-most in basketball. And just take a look at our advanced DVP tool to see how juicy of a matchup this is for Sabonis…
Malcolm Brogdon is seemingly in play every night with how he’s looked this season. He is averaging 23.4 points, 7.2 assists and 4.3 rebounds per game, while the ball is in his hands a ton, as only Luka Doncic is averaging more time of possession per game than Brogdon this season (7.9 minutes). And as you can see from the screenshot above, the Kings rank 28th against dimers and dead last against primary ball handlers and scorers, while also ranking 30th against crafty finishers. They are also allowing a 69.2 percent field goal percentage at the rim this season, the fourth-worst rate in basketball.
