NBA first look: Game-by-game DFS breakdown for Feb. 4

There are five games on tap on the NBA DFS slate for Thursday, and there are quite a few studs to sift through on the slate. With so many decisions at the top of your lineups, it’ll be important to nail the value plays that accompany these stars, especially if you want to get different with your spend-ups.

As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each game on the slate, highlighting players who stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.

Vegas data listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.

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Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks

UTA -7.5,224 total

A few weeks after these two teams met and the Jazz handed the Hawks a 116-92 loss, they meet again to kick off a five-game slate. This is an obvious spot to target the Jazz, who finally have a healthy rotation with the return of Donovan Mitchell, who feels way too cheap at $7,800. His 31.3% usage rate leads the team, and he complements it with a 23.1% assist rate while posting 1.14 FPPM, making him an elite target in a phenomenal matchup.

Speaking of underpriced, both Rudy Gobert ($7,500 on DraftKings) and Jordan Clarkson ($5,600 on DraftKings) feel a touch cheap as well. Gobert should have some competition for boards in the paint, but this game should stay competitive enough where he should see 32-plus minutes. Clarkson, on the other hand, thrives in pace-up environments, making him an uber-solid play. Mike Conley can be thrown in here too, averaging over 35 DK points per game over his last five games while stepping into a matchup with one of the worst defensive point guards in basketball in Trae Young.

For the Hawks, this matchup isn’t as easy, especially on the second leg of a back-to-back. Trae Young remains viable on DraftKings, as $9,300 is simply too cheap for the star point guard. Coming off of a down game against a stout defense could suppress his ownership as well. Outside of Young, John Collins and Clint Capela are the two other key pieces that garner my interest, with Collins being the preferred option at a $1,400 discount. He most recently posted 53.5 DK points on 16-21 shooting against the Mavericks, giving him plenty of momentum headed into this game.

Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter can continue to be value options as long as De'Andre Hunter remains out. Huerter is the safer of the two and most recently posted a ceiling game (48.8 DK points) in 38 minutes against the Mavericks.

Golden State Warriors @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -3.5, no total listed

The Warriors are now down two centers, as both James Wiseman and Kevon Looney have been ruled out of Thursday’s contest. This should leave more minutes on the table for Draymond Green and Eric Paschall — the latter was a massive disappointment Tuesday. Green is the far safer play with a higher ceiling, making him the preferred option. Paschall is OK in this matchup, but his $1,000 price increase on DraftKings makes it hard to not take the savings and go with Juan Toscano-Anderson for $3,500. In the absence of Looney and Wiseman last game, he saw nearly 27 minutes and posted 25.5 DK points. Given his price, he’s a viable option in a depleted frontcourt.

Stephen Curry remains too cheap anytime he’s under $10,000, the only issue is the fact that Trae Young is $500 cheaper. Nonetheless, Curry makes for a great play with a 31.2% usage rate and 31.4% assist rate on the season. Both Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are viable lineup fillers, but far from priorities.

For the Mavericks, this is the second leg of a back-to-back, which means we could see Kristaps Porzingis sit out. If that’s the case, it’d be hard not to endorse Luka Doncic as the top play on an abbreviated slate, averaging a 38.1% usage rate, 44.4% assist rate, 14.4% rebounding rate and 1.57 DKP per minute without Porzingis this season. This is also a massive pace-up spot, catering even more to Doncic’s wheelhouse.

Should Porzingis sit, we would see more minutes for James Johnson and Maxi Kleber. Given Kleber’s $3,600 price tag on DraftKings, he wouldn’t need much to eclipse value and could potentially draw a start if Porzingis is indeed out. Josh Richardson and Dorian Finney-Smith are another pair of cheap assets that would see incremental bumps sans Porzingis. Even if Porzingis is active, however, these two are both cheap enough and seeing more than enough minutes to justify their viability in this matchup.

If Porzingis plays, he becomes an elite option at under $8,000 in a matchup against an up-tempo team that’s missing its two biggest bodies in the paint.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -9.5, no total listed

Speaking of players resting on the second leg of back-to-backs, there’s always the potential for Joel Embiid to do so, however on the Sixers’ last back-to-back, he played both games. You know the drill should he sit; target Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris while taking advantage of the value in Dwight Howard and Tony Bradley. Howard in particular made it clear he carries immense value in the scenario where Embiid sits, regardless of who starts between him and Bradley.

If Embiid is active, however (the 9.5-point spread seems to imply that he will be), he quickly becomes one of the best overall players on the slate. While Enes Kanter is one of the best rebounders in the NBA, the Blazers rank 23rd against rim protectors, per advanced DvP, while Embiid is averaging 1.60 DK points per minute on the season. This would make Simmons and Harris harder to trust, but still viable, with Harris being the better point-per-dollar option at his price.

Damian Lillard continues to be a viable spend-up with CJ McCollum out, but the matchup with Philadelphia and Ben Simmons in particular is awful. Because of this, he’s best left for tournaments with Doncic, Young, and Curry being higher priorities for me if spending up at the guard position. This could, however, open up extra space for Gary Trent to produce. Over his last four games since entering the starting lineup, Trent has impressed. He’s posted 18.8 points in 35.8 minutes per game, while shooting a scorching 50% from distance. His price still allows room for a 6-7x ceiling, making him a viable mid-tier play. 

Nassir Little has been ruled out and Derrick Jones is questionable, which could benefit both Carmelo Anthony and Robert Covington. Both impressed Tuesday with those two out, making them usable value plays if Jones is ruled out, with Covington being the preferred of the two. Enes Kanter has been a staple in my cash game lineups as of late, but in a matchup with Embiid, it’s easy to prioritize players like Rudy Gobert and John Collins within the same price range.

Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies

MEM -1.5, 224.5 total

With John Wall resting Wednesday, it’s been reported it’s Victor Oladipo’s turn to rest Thursday. This opens up a ton of usage in the backcourt to split between both Wall (31.3% usage rate, 41.4% assist rate, 1.33 DKPPM without Oladipo) and Eric Gordon (28.7% usage rate, 19.0% assist rate, 1.14 DKPPM without Oladipo). Both are cheap enough to warrant consideration in this matchup.

Usage should also fall to Christian Wood, who’s logged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute with Oladipo off of the floor this season. He makes for an elite tournament play against a frontcourt that’s still missing Jonas Valanciunas.

Speaking of the Grizzlies, Ja Morant’s price on DraftKings ($7,400) is extremely appealing in a pace-up game. His production hasn’t been as amazing since his return from injury and the team’s COVID-19 hiatus, but he’s still the centerpiece of this team and gets an incremental boost with Valanciunas out. The other guards on this team are also making names for themselves, as both De'Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane have been great value plays over the last week. They’re both cheap enough to warrant consideration on FanDuel, as Melton has posted 26-plus FD points in three consecutive games, while Bane has seen 51 total minutes over his last two games (2 more total than the starter, Dillon Brooks).

Xavier Tillman and Gorgui Dieng should continue to man the paint in the absence of Valanciunas and while they are both fine mid-tier/value options, they’re not priorities against Christian Wood.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -5, 219.5 total

While this game may be the most star-studded on the slate, I fully expect it to be the lowest owned. Both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed as probable and with the sieve of a defense that Denver has been, this is an incredibly juicy spot to target them both underpriced and underowned. Of the two, James is my preferred option as he’s provided more peripheral stability on the season, posting a 36.8% assist rate and 12.9% rebounding rate to accompany his 32.1% usage rate. Davis, however, is right on his heels with a 27.3% usage rate and a 134.8% rebounding rate while posting 1.33 DKPPM. 

Outside of the two studs though, it’s hard to endorse any ancillary piece on the Lakers team relative to other options on the slate.

With so much interest in at least one of the two Lakers’ studs, it makes sense to have interest in Nikola Jokic here, as well. The matchup is far from easy, but he’s as matchup-proof as they come and if this game is going to stay close, he’s going to be a reason for that. Jamal Murray makes sense as a GPP-pairing with Jokic, but his volatility is much harder to stomach in a matchup with the Lakers. The fact that he correlates so well with Jokic, though, keeps him in the GPP conversations at minimal ownership.

Both PJ Dozier and Gary Harris have been ruled out, paving the way for Will Barton and Monte Morris to pick up extra run. Morris has been far more impressive in his limited time this season, making him my preferred option of the two and is likely to come in at lower ownership.