Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
While there are just three games in the NBA on Thursday night, there is a lot to tackle for DFS. There are still plenty of injuries, despite only six teams suiting up. And for such a small slate, there is actually a decent amount of value to be had.
Let’s break it all down.
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Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks
MIL -6, total: 235.5
These teams just met the other night, but things could be a bit different this time around. Kyle Lowry suffered an ankle injury Tuesday, limiting him to just 22 minutes. He is listed as questionable to play in this game and his potential absence will obviously impact this Toronto team. With Lowry off the floor this season, Fred VanVleet sees a 3.5% bump in usage, the highest mark on the team. In the split, his usage rate climbs to 27.5%, while his assist rate jumps to 20%. He is also averaging 1.23 fantasy points per minute. VanVleet is coming off a 53-point fantasy outing and has attempted 24 threes over the last two games. Don’t be surprised if he remains very active from three-point land, as 38.6% of the points scored against Milwaukee this season have come from beyond the arc, the fourth-highest mark in basketball. With Lowry limited last game, VanVleet also touched the ball 92 times, up from his 80.6 average on the season. We also saw OG Anunoby return to the lineup last game, scoring 13 points with seven rebounds in 26 minutes. He sees the second-highest bump in usage with Lowry off the floor this season at plus three% and I’d prefer him at $6,000 over Norman Powell at $6,400 on DK. Meanwhile, Chris Boucher played 30 minutes last game and didn’t get into any foul trouble. He’s now logged at least 24 minutes in six of his last seven games and when he’s priced in that $6,000 range, Boucher is always in consideration in tournaments. Boucher is averaging 1.32 fantasy points per minute with Lowry off the floor this season, while his per-36 minutes over the course of the season are staggering, as he’s averaging 20.9 points, 10.4 rebounds and 3.2 blocks.
I understand it is just by $100, but I’m not sure why Giannis Antetokounmpo has dipped below $11,000 on DraftKings. He’s been unreal as of late, averaging 66.1 fantasy points per game over his last five outings. He has also reached 70 fantasy points in three of his last four games and should continue to post huge games, especially if Jrue Holiday remains sidelined. The rebounding doesn’t appear to be going anywhere either, as Giannis has hauled in double-digit boards in eight of his last 10 games, while his 17.0 rebounding chances per game are good for 13th in basketball. He is also converting a whopping 67% of those opportunities into rebounds. Khris Middleton, meanwhile, has been really underwhelming as of late, scoring 21.7, 33.7 and 26.0 fantasy points over his last three games. We know he’s better than this and normally has a very safe floor, while the ceiling is going to be higher without Holiday. At $7,800 on DraftKings, I think you should give him another look. Finally, Bryn Forbes has started each of the last five games for the Bucks and while the usage rate isn’t going to be through the roof, the minutes are there. He’s $3,700 on DraftKings and on a three-game slate, value will be tougher to find. Forbes also leads the Bucks in catch-and-shoot points per game this season (5.5), while the Raptors are coughing up 34.8 points per game to spot-up shooters on the year, good for the third-most in the NBA. I also don’t hate Brook Lopez at $4,700, especially if he’s going to play 28-32 minutes. If he walks into six or seven rebounds, he should smash that price tag.
Brooklyn Nets @ Los Angeles Lakers
LAL -2.5, total: 234
Kyrie Irving missed Brooklyn’s last game with a sore back, but he’s listed as probable for this showdown with the Lakers. Meanwhile, Kevin Durant has once again been ruled out, meaning Irving and James Harden will continue to carry the load for the Nets. Harden has been playing fantastic basketball as of late and has really established himself as the true point guard on this team, as he’s initiated the offense, while Kyrie has been playing much more off the ball. Over the last 10 games, Harden is averaging 91.8 touches per game, sixth-most in the NBA, while his 8.5 average minutes of possession per game are fifth-best in basketball during that span. Given his recent play and the fact that Durant is still out of the lineup, I honestly believe that $10,600 for Harden is still a touch too cheap. With Durant off the floor over the last two weeks, Harden is sporting a 30.7% usage rate, 24% rebounding rate and 29% assist rate, while averaging 1.57 fantasy points per minute. During that same span, Irving is sporting a 33.2% usage rate and averaging 1.38 fantasy points per minute. Both are obviously strong plays here. DeAndre Jordan returned to the starting lineup against the Suns and played nearly 30 minutes. The matchup isn’t great but he’s under $5,000 on DraftKings.
For the Lakers, you obviously know to play LeBron James, especially with Anthony Davis sidelined. He’s pretty much a lock for 50 fantasy points and after playing a few overtime contests as of late, the 36-year-old is suddenly averaging 35 minutes per game. He’ll have to continue logging huge minutes going forward and with Davis off the floor this season, LeBron is sporting a 33.4% usage rate to go along with a 24% rebounding rate, 23% assist rate and nearly 1.50 fantasy points per minute. This is obviously a favorable matchup, too, as the Nets rank 28th against primary ball handlers, 24th against scorers, 27th against crafty finishers and 26th against point forwards on the season, per our advanced DvP tool. I also like Dennis Schroder at $5,800, facing a Brooklyn backcourt that has very little interest in playing defense. Schroder sees nearly a 2% bump in usage with Davis off the floor this season, while averaging nearly a fantasy point per minute. And while his production has been better as of late, I still don’t feel comfortable paying $6,700 for Kyle Kuzma.
Miami Heat @ Sacramento Kings
MIA -1, total: 225.5
Jimmy Butler is playing at an unbelievable level right now, as he’s recorded a triple-double in three of his last four games. In 10 games since returning to the Heat lineup, Butler is averaging 84 touches per game, while averaging 7.2 minutes of possession per game during that span. And in that same stretch, Butler is posting a healthy 27% usage rate to go along with a 25% rebounding rate and 24% assist rate. This is an incredible matchup, facing a weak Kings defense that will be missing two of their better defenders. Butler went for just over 50 fantasy points the last time these teams met, and this might be a reason why:
I also think Tyler Herro makes plenty of sense at $5,900 on DraftKings. He’s recorded 43.2 fantasy points in each of his last two games and while his 15 rebounds from last game aren’t likely to be repeated, Herro is still playing huge minutes right now, especially with Goran Dragic still out. And with Dragic off the floor this season, Herro is sporting a 24.5% usage rate, while averaging just under a fantasy point per minute. Finally, I love Bam Adebayo at an $8,200 price tag against a bad Kings defense. His peripherals have been fantastic, especially as of late, while Sacramento is coughing up the third-most points per possession (1.26) and fourth-highest field goal percentage (57.4%) to the roll man out of the pick and roll this season.
For the Kings, both Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes will miss this game, opening up opportunities for Hassan Whiteside, Marvin Bagley and Glenn Robinson. Holmes missed the last game, though the team went small against a Brooklyn team that went small, as they started Cory Joseph, while Bagley moved to the five. Against Miami, we’ll see a different starting five, especially with Barnes out. Barnes played 28 minutes last game but suffered a foot injury that will keep him out for at least this game. With both Barnes and Holmes off the floor this season, Bagley is sporting a 25% usage rate, while averaging 1.05 fantasy points per minute. We also saw Whiteside go crazy in the last game, scoring 26 points to go along with 16 rebounds and five blocks in 23 minutes. We know Whiteside is a very efficient player in fantasy and he should be able to get to 23-25 minutes again here, which firmly puts him in play. He is averaging 1.43 fantasy points per minute with Holmes and Barnes off the floor this season, while sporting an insane 43% rebounding rate. Meanwhile, feel free to go back to De'Aaron Fox at $8,500 on DraftKings, who is playing some terrific basketball right now and should have to carry even more of an offensive load.
