Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
While the seven-game Monday slate is not quite the size we’ve become accustomed to kicking off the work week, there are some massive totals and juicy game environments to target, so this slate certainly won’t be short on fireworks.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. If there is no spread and/or total listed, you will see “n/a.”
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Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers
IND -5.5, total: 227.5
Whenever a team is playing against the Bulls, they’re going to garner attention, especially if they have a duo like the Pacers do in Malcolm Brogdon and Domantas Sabonis. While Brogdon’s recent form has been somewhat lackluster, it’s hard to find a better bounce-back spot, as the Bulls rank 28th against scorers, 28th against crafty finishers, 30th against dimers, and 30th against primary ball handlers, per aDvP. The matchup for Sabonis is equally as good, as the Bulls have no size to combat the big man, who’s averaging 1.42 DKP/min over the last two weeks.
Because of the lack of frontcourt depth for the Bulls, Myles Turner at $6,000 is a worthwhile GPP target given his peripheral upside. You can also get away with Doug McDermott if he’s active, as he’s been seeing over 30 minutes with regularity for a cheap price. If he’s out, this would open up more minutes for Justin Holiday and Jeremy Lamb. TJ McConnell is also a great tournament flyer at $5,200, as he’s averaged 1.10 DKP/min over the last two weeks while posting at least 31 DKP in three of his last six games.
As good as the matchup is for the Pacers, I have a hard time getting on board with the Bulls on the other side outside of a run-back option or two. Zach LaVine is always the default option, but his $9,200 price tag is getting to that range where I get a bit uncomfortable given his 30-DK-point floor, especially when Sabonis is only $100 cheaper.
With Wendell Carter Jr. questionable, it also makes it hard to stomach $6,100 for Thaddeus Young or $5,100 for Patrick Williams, making this frontcourt one to avoid.
Houston Rockets @ Washington Wizards
PK, total: 228.5
This is the second half of a back-to-back for the Wizards and for the second consecutive time, Russell Westbrook has not yet been ruled out. While there is still a chance he plays, he has yet to play in the second half of a back-to-back, so it may be more appropriate to deem him as doubtful. This is an obvious bump to Bradley Beal, who has a league-leading 39.9% usage rate with Westbrook out this season while averaging 1.57 DKP/min. At $8,900, he’s simply too cheap, regardless of the status of Westbrook. If Westbrook is active, both he and Beal are viable in this game given the pick-em spread and respectable total, with Beal still being my player of choice.
Assuming Westbrook sits, we’d also see a lot more of Raul Neto with Ish Smith also out. While $4,600 is a price that seems to have adjusted for this scenario, he still averages close to a fantasy point per minute without Westbrook and should creep up around 30 minutes as the only active point guard. Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija and Davis Bertans would all see incremental boosts as well given the insane usage and peripheral rates that would be vacated, with Hachimura being the best to target. If Avdija starts, however, he would be a worthwhile value play at only $4,000.
For the Rockets, Victor Oladipo and Christian Wood remain out, so we should continue to see condensed usage distributed between John Wall (34.8% usage rate without them this season), Eric Gordon (28.0% usage rate without them) and DeMarcus Cousins (25.2% usage rate without them). My goal on Monday is going to be getting at least one of these pieces in each of my lineups, with Wall being my top priority, followed by Cousins, then Gordon. It is also OK to stack Cousins with one of the guards, but I would try to avoid playing Wall and Gordon in the same lineup.
Oladipo’s absence should also continue to open up more minutes for Sterling Brown and Jae'Sean Tate. Of the two, I prefer Tate given his history of starting and the fact that Brown’s price has jumped up to $4,200, but both are viable value plays in an elite matchup.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
ATL -1.5, total: 216.5
It’s not common that the Hawks’ game carries the lowest implied total on the slate, but that reflects on how slow the Knicks have been playing this season. Because of this, this is a game that I have a hard time targeting aside from a one-off or two.
Trae Young is always in play, especially at $9,500, as he’s posted 50+ DK points in seven of his last 10 games. The issue, however, is that the three games he’s fallen short have all been within the last five games, with back-to-back sub-40-DK-point performances. The pace of this game doesn’t cater to his playstyle, but given his sheer upside, he’s a viable GPP target.
Outside of Young, however, I don’t have interest in the Hawks team strictly due to there being so many other elite game environments on the slate. I will not argue with those rostering John Collins, Clint Capela, or Kevin Huerter given their upside, but I will take a pass on Monday.
For the Knicks, this is a pace-up spot where I actually have a bit of interest in, particularly in Julius Randle, who’s still posted 1.20 DKP/min and a 26.4% usage rate over the last week since the trade for Derrick Rose. He should continue to see 80-90 touches in a pace-up game, making him a great tournament pivot off of someone like Domantas Sabonis.
Nerlens Noel is the other Knicks player who I still have interest in due to the absence of Mitchell Robinson. While he’s been priced up to $4,400, that still feels a touch too cheap given his double-double and block upside. Seeing over 32 minutes last game was a cherry on top for his price tag, making him the top value center of the slate once again.
Philadelphia 76ers @ Utah Jazz
UTA -7.5, total: 227
The spread of this game leads me to believe that we could see Joel Embiid sit, as he’s currently listed as questionable for this game while backup point guard Shake Milton has already been ruled out. If Embiid sits, by default, we can turn to Tobias Harris, who holds a 28.1% usage rate without these two, and Ben Simmons, whose usage rate without them sits at 20.4%, but his assist rate skyrockets to 39.3% while posting 1.21 DKP/min. While these two would typically be close to must-plays on most slates with Embiid out, that wouldn’t be the case on Monday given the matchup with the Jazz relative to other games on the slate.
Of the two, Simmons would be my preferred option, as the Jazz have continued to be susceptible at the point guard position and the individual matchup with Donovan Mitchell would allow for more peripheral upside. This would also open up Dwight Howard as a viable play, who sits at only $3,600 on DraftKings. The matchup with Rudy Gobert is far from ideal, but it’s hard to argue with $3,600 when you’re looking at 25+ minutes and 1.04 DKP/min.
Whether Embiid plays or not, my Jazz interest is once again limited to the trio of Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson and Joe Ingles, as all three have taken massive steps forward in the recent absence of Mike Conley, who’s once again been ruled out for Monday.
Over the last two weeks, Ingles (0.97) and Clarkson (1.02) have flirted with a fantasy point per minute in terms of production while Ingles assist rate has spiked to 27.3%. In that same span, Donovan Mitchell has posted 1.39 DKP/min with both an assist rate and usage rate north of 30%. The matchup with Ben Simmons is far from ideal, however, rendering him a stronger tournament play than cash play.
Rudy Gobert is always in play at $7,200, but with the way my personal roster construction is shaping up, center is a position that I am likely to save money at, especially if Embiid is out. He is, however, a great tournament play that should have little-to-no ownership.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Golden State Warriors
GSW -8.5, total: 225
Andre Drummond has been ruled out. This should give Jarrett Allen an uptick and unlike Drummond, he has the ability to play against a small-ball lineup. While too volatile in cash against a 6-foot-6 center in Draymond Green, he certainly has some tournament appeal
If I am going to roster any Cavs players, it’ll be either Collin Sexton or Darius Garland, who should both thrive in a pace-up environment and feel a touch cheap on this slate. There can also be merit to Isaac Okoro at only $3,400. While he’s been an abysmal per-minute producer this season, he’s a near-minimum-priced player seeing roughly 30 minutes per game who has upside in a pace-up matchup. He’s not a safe value play by any means, but if looking in this range, I’ll take his 30 minutes over most of the other options.
For the Warriors, both Stephen Curry and Draymond Green (assuming he plays) continue to be elite plays in my eyes, but the pace-down spot against a stronger defense in the Cavs isn’t necessarily where I want to go on a seven-game slate with ripe game environments elsewhere. Of the two, I’m more inclined to roster Green with his double-double and even triple-double upside for $3,200 cheaper than Curry and use that extra salary to go with a Bradley Beal or another aforementioned stud. Curry is still, however, an elite tournament play at under $10,000.
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -4, total: 219.5
Both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George sat out on Sunday, and both of their statuses are in question for Monday, as Leonard is nursing a lower-leg bruise and George has missed five consecutive games with a toe issue. As always, this is a simple analysis, even against the Heat. If one is out, the other becomes an elite play, especially considering the fact that they’re both too cheap for that hypothetical.
If both happen to sit out again, Lou Williams will become an elite play as the only legitimate scoring threat left. He posted a 30-point, 10-assist double-double in their absences on Sunday and for $6,400, he would provide the same upside, if not more, on Monday. This would also make Marcus Morris Sr. a viable option, as he operated as the second-option on offense en route to a 23-point, six-rebound outing.
If both Leonard and George are in, however, the Clippers would be a safe fade as a whole. This would also make the Heat team a stomachable fade as well.
If rostering anyone from the Heat, I’ll continue to look to Jimmy Butler, who’s posted a 26% usage rate, 39.9% assist rate, 13.7% rebounding rate and 1.36 DKP/min over the last two weeks. His $8,200 price tag is far from indicative of this production, making him a great option if you want Heat exposure.
Bam Adebayo’s price continues to fall, and it’s at a point now where he can be considered regardless of the matchup. He’s still posted 1.17 DKP/min over the last two weeks so assuming he gets 35+ minutes of playing time here, he should be in good shape relative to his price.
With Goran Dragic out, we should continue to see more Tyler Herro and Kendrick Nunn, with the latter likely continuing to start. Both are intriguing at under $6,000, but I actually prefer Nunn to Herro, as he’s played at least 31 minutes in four straight games and has back-to-back 34.25-DK-point performances.
Brooklyn Nets @ Sacramento Kings
BKN -4, total: 238
Saving the best game for last, eh? This spread is close and likely due to the expected absence of Kevin Durant, who’s been ruled out for the next two games. This cements both James Harden ($10,700) and Kyrie Irving ($9,000) as elite plays, especially at their respective prices. Who you choose, however, will all come down to roster construction.
Harden will limit your flexibility elsewhere in your lineup given the $1,700 premium compared to Irving, but he’s shown an upside that Irving has not, scoring at least 62 DK points in two of his last three games. Irving, on the other hand, allows you to roster someone like Bradley Beal in addition to a third $7,000-$8,000 stud while not having to dip incredibly low in the value pool. While he hasn’t showcased a ton of 60-point upside, he’s still posted a 32.5% usage rate without Durant since the trade, with a 29.6% assist rate and 1.33 DKP/min. Of the two, I prefer Irving with price factored in, especially now that he has shooting guard eligibility on DraftKings.
Bruce Brown draws some intrigue as a value play sans Durant, as he’s no stranger to entering the starting lineup in this situation. Since the trade, Brown has averaged 0.83 DKP/min in games without Durant and should be a candidate for 25+ minutes. At only $4,100, you can do a whole lot worse given the matchup.
The Kings are a team I will definitely want exposure to against a historically-bad Nets defense, especially with so much interest in Harden and Irving. De'Aaron Fox ($8,800) is my favorite play on the team, as he’s been playing out of his mind over the last few weeks and the Nets rank 24th against dimers, 28th against primary ball handlers, and 29th against both scorers and crafty finishers. If not going Fox, Tyrese Haliburton would be my next preference, as he’s locked into secure minutes, handles a respectable amount of touches per game and should end up closing the game for a reasonable price tag.
Harrison Barnes has been a model for consistency this season, and Richaun Holmes has been a beaming light in the frontcourt, making both of them usable assets against a fragile Brooklyn interior. Holmes, in particular, should come in at incredibly low ownership.
