Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
If there’s anything that screams Valentine’s Day, it’s tilting a nine-game NBA DFS slate with (or without) your significant other. With such a massive Sunday slate and a handful of injuries to monitor, it could be yet another hectic hour leading up to lock.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is a first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets
SA -2, total: 229
LaMarcus Aldridge remains out for the Spurs, which means we can continue to condense the targets on this team to what we’ve been doing with regularity over the last few weeks — target Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan. A matchup with the Hornets is an enticing one that offers a heap of fantasy upside and for each of their respective prices ($8,000 for DeRozan, $7,000 for Murray), making both viable options on a nine-game slate with my edge going to Murray in an exciting head-to-head with LaMelo Ball.
Jakob Poeltl is a third Spurs player worth keeping an eye on, as he’s coming off of a 14-point, 12-rebound double-double with six stocks and takes on a Hornets team that ranks 27th against rebounders and 28th against rim protectors, per advanced DvP.
The return of Devonte' Graham failed to impact LaMelo Ball’s role, as he still saw over 36 minutes last game and is in line for a similar workload in a pace-up spot on Sunday. He’s at the point now where he’s become matchup-proof, as his 26.3% usage rate, 25.9% assist rate, and 1.25 DKP/min clip over the last two weeks make him an elite option in all formats.
You can get away with Terry Rozier and Gordon Hayward in tournaments given their raw point upside, but they’ve both demonstrated how low their floors can be with Ball being the primary option on offense. Cody Zeller is another intriguing option if you want to save some money at center, especially if P.J. Washington is ruled out. That should open up a few more minutes for Zeller, who becomes a viable value option, although I would prefer Poeltl in the same game. This would also make Miles Bridges a viable mid-tier target as well.
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -8, total: 229.5
Karl-Anthony Towns has been back for two games now for the Wolves and over those two games, has posted a 25.2% usage rate, 14.9% rebounding rate and 1.36 DKP/min without D'Angelo Russell active. While the Raptors are not necessarily an elite matchup, he should continue to see a massive amount of volume and his $9,400 price tag is a far-cry from what it should be considering his upside.
Outside of Towns, however, it’s hard to endorse this Timberwolves team on a full slate. You can get away with Anthony Edwards and Malik Beasley here, but both have taken a significant usage hit since Towns returned to the lineup, while Edwards has seen his per-minute production dip to 0.87 DKP/min over the last two games. They’re better left for large-field GPPs on a full slate.
My real interest in this game comes from the Toronto side, as both Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry feel far too cheap given the matchup. Minnesota’s defense is virtually non-existent and it, arguably, gets worse with Towns active, so I want to target at least one of the Raptors’ big-three with my preferences being the cheaper options. Both Siakam and Lowry have a heap of scoring equity in the offense and enough peripheral upside to get you a double-double (or even triple-double bonus for Lowry) bonus, making them both phenomenal plays. Given their prices, Lowry is my priority here.
You can still get away with Fred VanVleet, as he’s demonstrated an astronomical ceiling as of late, but there is also a bit of scoring volatility and he comes in as the most expensive of the three. If I am going outside of Siakam and Lowry here, I’ll just go right to Chris Boucher. While his price is beginning to rise, he’s seen 24-plus minutes in five consecutive games while posting at least 32 FanDuel points in every single one. This is a player to take advantage of when they’re rolling and the potential absence of OG Anunoby would only help his case.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons
NOP -4.5, total: 220.5
Zion Williamson continues to score at an insanely efficient rate after a 36-point last game on 14-15 shooting and draws another favorable matchup on Sunday. Due to his one-dimensional production this season, however, I can’t recommend him in anything more than tournaments until we see a string of double-doubles or the ceiling performances that we expected coming into the season. Brandon Ingram is in a similar boat, though his peripherals have been a bit more secure than Zion’s. He’s more in play in cash for me, especially at a thinner small-forward position.
Outside of the two forwards, you can make a case for either of Lonzo Ball or Josh Hart in this matchup as well. Ball has been incredibly consistent and has an ultra-stable floor for his price, while Hart provides nice upside for his price. Hart, however, is questionable to play, so if he misses, that would give incremental boosts to Ball, Eric Bledsoe and potentially Nickeil Alexander-Walker off of the bench.
For the Pistons, I will continue to target Delon Wright and Jerami Grant until they’re priced up. Grant has shown a bit more volatility as of late, but $7,400 for a 26.5% usage rate and over a fantasy point per minute are good enough for me. Wright has been one of the most under-owned players of the season and with Derrick Rose gone, is the only real threat at the point guard position (sorry, Dennis Smith). Over the last two weeks, he’s averaged a fantasy point per minute with a 27.1% usage rate, making him an elite play at what should continue to be minimal ownership.
If Mason Plumlee sits out again, we can go right back to the well with the Isaiah Stewart value. While he didn’t put up 10x last game like he did in his first start, he’s still an elite source of salary relief and could have incrementally less ownership after a dud.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Dallas Mavericks
DAL -5, total: 236
Damian Lillard under $10,000? Sign me up. Luka Doncic can’t guard a broom, let alone Lillard and with CJ McCollum still out, $9,600 is simply too cheap for Lillard, even if we haven’t seen the ceiling we were accustomed to in the bubble. He’s still held a 31.7% usage rate and posts 1.34 DKP/min without McCollum over the last two weeks.
This matchup also caters to Enes Kanter, who’s made a career of being an effective per-minute producer and now gets to match up with a team that is allowing the third-highest field-goal percentage in the restricted area this season. Gary Trent is also a viable mid-tier option, as he’s played at least 33 minutes in six consecutive games and continues to see over 10 shot attempts per game. He provides a nice ceiling, but it’s accompanied by a relatively low floor for his price.
On the Dallas side, it’s hard to argue with Doncic. He’s led Dallas to a four-game winning streak and over that span, has averaged 35.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.3 assists while shooting 44.1% from three. To make matters even better, Lillard ranks 70th out of 85 qualified point guards in defensive real plus-minus, making this a smash-spot for Doncic.
If you aren’t getting exposure to Doncic, it’s important to get some to Kristaps Porzingis. While he hasn’t been as hot as the point guard, he still holds a 28.5% usage rate on the season and is averaging 1.25 DKP/min. Those are elite clips regardless of recent performance, making him a great play against a porous defense.
Milwaukee Bucks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
MIL -11.5, total: 229.5
The Thunder continue to be short-handed, as they’re expected to be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Theo Maledon, Trevor Ariza and George Hill Sunday. This should continue to lead to expanded opportunities for just about the entire rotation. The issue, however, is the fact that they’ve all been priced up to a point where I can confidently say that I’m comfortable rostering them against a team like the Bucks.
If there’s one that I have interest in, however, it’s Hamidou Diallo for $7,100 ($6,800 on FanDuel). He’s played at least 36 minutes in four of his last five games, recording two double-doubles over his last three games and scoring at least 15 raw points in eight straight games. He’s taken the expanded opportunity and run with it, making him a viable mid-tier target.
For the Bucks, I’m totally fine going right back to the well with both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton. Giannis has posted back-to-back games of 65-plus FanDuel points and should be primed for another one here as long as the game can stay close enough for three quarters. Middleton is fresh off a dud against the Jazz, but still has a 25% usage rate, 32% assist rate and posts 1.34 DKP/min without Jrue Holiday on the court this season.
Outside of those two, you can get away with the value of Donte DiVincenzo or Bryn Forbes, but there is still a high level of volatility that accompanies them. This also sets up as a Bobby Portis game, per the Vegas spread (-11.5). If you’re expecting the Bucks to cover here and win by more than 11, it would make sense to get Portis in a lineup, as he’s been notorious for crushing in blowout run this season given his point-per-minute upside.
Orlando Magic @ Phoenix Suns
PHO -10, total: 215
Speaking of teams that remain shorthanded, the Magic are expected to be without Aaron Gordon, Markelle Fultz and Frank Mason, while Evan Fournier, Cole Anthony and James Ennis are questionable. If all three get ruled out, it’ll be hard to not lock in Terrence Ross and Nikola Vucevic strictly from a volume-perspective alone, even in a difficult matchup. This would also lead to more Michael Carter-Williams run, as he saw 27 minutes in his first game back and posted 21 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. If Cole Anthony alone is out, Carter-Williams becomes an extremely strong value at only $4,700 on DraftKings.
The potential absences of Ennis and Fournier would also create more opportunities for Dwayne Bacon, who saw over 38 minutes last game and remains cheap at $4,800 on DraftKings. If all three of the Magic players are active, however, this team would become an easier fade in a difficult matchup and a full rotation.
For the Suns, as good as they are as a team, they’re an easy fade for me on this slate in an unfavorable game script with a slow pace. If there is one player that sticks out, however, it’s Deandre Ayton, as his $7,100 price tag is cheap enough where there is still room for a 7x-ceiling.
Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets
LAL -3, total: 217
A tale as old as time — LeBron James and Anthony Davis on the injury report. While both played Friday, Davis is still at risk of missing this contest due to his Achilles tendinitis, which would vault James into elite-play territory against a defense allowing the highest field-goal percentage in the NBA in the restricted area, while ranking in the bottom-half of the NBA in defensive efficiency. This would also throw Kyle Kuzma into a viable territory, but at $6,400, the room for a ceiling game is starting to dwindle.
If Davis is active, both he and James remain viable plays in what should be a competitive game, but neither would necessarily be a priority. Of the two, I would still prefer LeBron, even for $900 more.
The Nuggets have a much more difficult matchup in this game than the Lakers do, as the Lakers rank first in the league in defensive efficiency. With that said, if this game is going to stay close, Nikola Jokic is bound to be a reason why. His 29.8% usage rate, 38.3% assist rate and 1.59 DKP/min clip are hard to match on this slate, as the matchup is the only thing preventing him from being an elite play.
Because of the matchup, it’s equally as hard for me to endorse players like Jamal Murray, Michael Porter and Will Barton in anything more than tournaments. If you’re scripting this game to go wire-to-wire, you’ll want some of these pieces in a lineup, but they are far from necessities on a nine-game slate.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Los Angeles Clippers
LAC -11, total: 221
This is one of the other games that I have virtually no interest in, outside of a piece or two, given the slow pace and stout defenses.
The main piece to target here, however, is Kawhi Leonard. $9,500 is still at least $500 too cheap without Paul George, as over the last two seasons, Leonard has posted a 33.2% usage rate, 23.0% assist rate and 1.42 DKP/min. Regardless of the pace of caliber of the opponent, Leonard is an elite play at this price.
If you’re pressing to play anyone from the Cavs, Darius Garland and Collin Sexton make the most sense, as the Clippers have ranked 21st against primary ball handlers this season. The return of Patrick Beverley obviously hampers the appeal of whichever he is guarding (my guess would be Sexton), which gives the other some additional appeal.
Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings
MEM -1, total: 229.5
Anytime the Kings are on a slate, we’re going to want to look to their opponent. Sunday, that means a heaping serving of Ja Morant and Jonas Valanciunas.
Between the two, Valanciunas is my favorite option, as he’s posted 20.3 points, 14.3 rebounds and 3.7 assists over 31.6 minutes per game. As long as he continues to get minutes like this, it’s going to be hard to fade him, as the Kings rank 26th against skilled centers, 29th against rebounders, and 30th against scorers, especially if Brandon Clarke sits out again.
Morant is in an equally good spot, per aDvP (illustrated below):
The potential absence of De'Aaron Fox could hamper this matchup a bit, but regardless, Morant has a massive ceiling for his price.
If searching for value on the Grizzlies, Grayson Allen should be at the top of your list. With De’Anthony Melton and Desmond Bane out last game, Allen drew the start at the shooting guard position and posted 23 points, three rebounds and a pair of steals. The most important part, however, was his 35 minutes. Any time you can get that much playing time at such a cheap price, they’re going to be an extremely viable option (99% of the time).
The Kings players are contingent on the status of Fox, who sat out Friday. If he suits up without a minutes restriction, he’d be an elite GPP play at $9,000 given the fact that he’s posted a 31.6% usage rate, 40.9% assist rate and 1.36 DKP/min over the last two weeks. Should he sit, Tyrese Haliburton would likely draw his second-consecutive start and while he only saw 29 minutes in that game, he would once again be an elite option given his 1.08 DKP/min clip and 24.1% usage rate over the last two weeks (with Fox in).
This would also give incremental boosts to Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes, with the latter being the more secure cash game play both with or without Fox in the lineup.
