Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The NBA is essentially offering all-day action Thursday, with games starting at 3:30 p.m. ET and going all the way until the late evening. Here on the game-by-game DFS breakdown, however, our primary focus will be on each main slate over the course of the season, which features five games Thursday evening.
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Orlando Magic
PHI -2.5; total: 216
The 4-0 Magic look to stay undefeated as they host the 76ers. Nikola Vucevic has found plenty of success against his former team throughout his career and although it is a tough matchup on paper, I have interest in the All-Star center. If you take out a game in which he only played 22 minutes, Vucevic is averaging 46.3 DraftKings points per game against Philadelphia since the 2016 campaign and he is benefiting from the absence of Jonathan Isaac, as well as the minutes limitations for Aaron Gordon. His rebounding rate is sitting at a whopping 36% so far this season, while he’s averaging nearly 1.4 fantasy points per minute through the first four games.
Meanwhile, you think Markelle Fultz will be motivated for this game? Facing his former team that essentially gave up on him, Fultz finds himself in one of those revenge-game spots that always results in huge fantasy games. Sure, there was a hint of sarcasm there, but Fultz is firmly in play, especially in cash games. He’s scored at least 33 DK points in three of his first four games and is running the pick-and-roll with Vucevic and company at a very high rate. In fact, his 11 possessions per game as the ball handler out of the set are good enough for sixth-most in the NBA so far this season, while he’s averaging 9.8 points per game out of the pick-and-roll. The matchup isn’t ideal against Ben Simmons, but in 2019, the 76ers coughed up the fourth-most points per game to pick-and-roll ball handlers (22.4, according to our advanced DvP), while Fultz leads Orlando with a 27.6% usage rate on the young season. Finally, his 7.1 minutes of possession per game are the ninth-most in basketball. To make a long story short, this offense is running through Fultz and Vucevic right now.
Finally, Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross are both over $5,000 on DraftKings, and while Fournier’s minutes are always more secure, I find myself just going to Ross at a slightly cheaper price tag. Both players offer very little in terms of peripherals, so why not go for the player with the higher scoring ceiling? Ross has been scoring off the dribble more this season but still gets plenty of looks off of screens, while the 76ers are currently allowing the second-most points per game off the play type (8.5).
For Philadelphia, Joel Embiid continues to play like arguably the best center in the league. After a slow start Tuesday night, Embiid ultimately finished with 29 points, 16 rebounds, four assists, two blocks and two steals against the Raptors. He is averaging a gaudy 16.3 post-ups per game in the early going, as the 76ers are just feeding him down low. His price finally reached $10,000 on DraftKings, which is where it should be. There is nothing about this matchup that should turn you away from Embiid, but I’m not sure how I feel about the other members of this team. Simmons is always going to have an insanely high floor, as he’s averaging 86 touches per game and provides so many peripherals. But unless he has a massive triple-double, the upside isn’t ever going to be the highest on a slate. Tobias Harris is coming off his best game of the young season on Tuesday but still doesn’t profile as a priority option on this slate.
Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets
HOU -4; total: 228.5
Reinforcements are on the way for the Rockets, as the team should finally see season debuts from John Wall, Eric Gordon and DeMarcus Cousins against the Kings. This makes this a lot tricker to break down, as the first two games featured a ton of James Harden and Christian Wood, who have usage rates of 35 and 27%, respectively. Harden isn’t really impacted that much, as he’ll still dominate the usage, though he certainly won’t continue to average 1.82 fantasy points per minute. When sharing the floor with Russell Westbrook last season, Harden still posted around a 32% usage rate and averaged 1.46 fantasy points per minute. Right out of the gate, I don’t expect Wall to have as much usage as Westbrook did with Houston last season, especially if his minutes are limited a bit. Some might be afraid to pay up for Harden with the Rockets getting healthier but who else are you paying up for on this slate? Meanwhile, the Kings were a putrid isolation defense a season ago, surrendering the most points per possession (1.06) and field goal percentage (47%) off the play type. Harden, who led the NBA in isolation points per game a season ago, leads the league in that department again here in 2020 (10.0).
The question I have is how Cousins’ presence impacts Wood. He’s played huge minutes through two games this season, and Cousins should be his direct backup, giving the Rockets another very capable center to give minutes too. And because the two are unlikely to play many minutes together, Wood’s minutes could start to drop. However, that makes him a lot more interesting in GPPs, especially against a Kings defense that is allowing the third-highest field goal percentage to the roll man so far this season. Finally, Danuel House’s role really doesn’t change too much and he should still continue to start at small forward. His price has dropped to $4,400 on DK and offers some solid value.
I wish the Kings frontcourt would become a bit clearer, but I think this is a spot where you can take some shots. Richaun Holmes is coming off his best game of the season against Denver, scoring 20 points, while adding five rebounds, three assists, one block and two steals in 32 minutes. His minutes have increased in every game this season and the Kings only used a nine-man rotation last game, making Holmes a very intriguing GPP option because if he can reach 30 minutes again, he could crush his price tag. The same can easily be said for Marvin Bagley, who, despite only averaging 24.4 minutes per game, is also averaging 14 points and eight rebounds. His 27.7% usage rate leads the team, while he’s recorded two double-doubles in four outings. I am going to continue sprinkling him into my tournament lineups because he could legitimately break a slate if his minutes get up to the 30-32 range.
De'Aaron Fox is perfectly priced at $7,600 on DraftKings, meanwhile, and is second on the team with a 26.9% usage rate. I think he could crush the Rockets in this game, especially considering that they allowed the most transition points per game in the NBA a season ago (23.8), while Fox is currently seventh in the league in points per game in transition (6.3), while sporting a 26% frequency rate.
New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors
TOR -9; total: 216.5
We’ll see if New York remains shorthanded Thursday, as the Knicks only had eight players in the rotation on Tuesday night. They could be without four of their point guards for this game, while Alec Burks, who has been playing plenty of point, could miss his second straight game. If that is the case, Elfrid Payton would have to play close to 40 minutes again, while RJ Barrett and Julius Randle would continue to have the ball in their hands a ton. Randle is obviously coming off the huge triple-double against the Cavs; I detailed just how much this offense is running through him right now in Tuesday’s article. His price is pushing $9,000 in a somewhat tough matchup but with how many players New York is missing, it is hard to completely remove him from consideration.
The Raptors’ main three players are all priced pretty fairly, making them all viable options for me tonight. However, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam aren’t core plays by any means. VanVleet has been underwhelming in two of his first three games but is still just $7,200 on DraftKings, presenting him with plenty of upside, especially against a bad, depleted Knicks team.
New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder
NOP -5; total: 214
The Pelicans were blown out in their last game, limiting both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram to under 30 minutes for the first time this season. Still, we know that both players are going to flirt with 38 minutes in competitive games and their prices have come down, especially on DK where Zion is below $8,000. And on FanDuel, there is a $1,300 price discrepancy between the two, making Williamson the preferred play there. He is sporting a healthy 27% rebounding rate and 28% usage rate so far this season. This could also be a good spot for not only Zion but Lonzo Ball to get out on the break, as the Thunder are currently allowing the most transition points per game in the league at 28 per contest.
Ball’s 11% assist rate is a bit lacking, largely because Ingram is such a high isolation rate player that it is harder to get assists off of his buckets. Still, he’s locked into 32-35 minutes, offers plenty of peripherals and is in a fine matchup, Eric Bledsoe, meanwhile, has been awful in each of his last three games, failing to reach the 20-fantasy-point mark. He’s the cheapest of the New Orleans starters and makes plenty of sense as a “last player in” option on this slate.
The only player from the Thunder that I am moderately interested in is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He has a very high floor due to his volume, as SGA is averaging 84 touches per game so far this season, a number that was at 60 per game during his rookie campaign. Meanwhile, his 7.9 minutes of possession per game are the third-most in the NBA behind only Luka Doncic and James Harden.
Phoenix Suns @ Utah Jazz
UTA -3.5; total: 218
This game features a decent total and close spread, but no one stands out as a must play, to be honest.
For the Suns, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton have been underwhelming to start the season, especially Booker, who has yet to reach 40 fantasy points in a game. His assist rate and potential assists are way down with Chris Paul on the team, though his usage rate is still hovering around that 30% mark. Booker is playing more off the ball, which will often give him better looks but potentially not as many looks as he saw a season ago. However, his price has dipped down to $8,600 on DK and faces a Utah team that struggled to defend scoring guards off screens a season ago (see Jamal Murray). They allowed the most points per game off screens in the NBA last year at 7.7. Paul, meanwhile, is just $7,000 and is a fine cash play but offers a ceiling, especially in this spot. It seems unlikely that he is going to play 35 minutes, at least right now.
I really don’t dislike anyone from the Jazz, especially where they are priced. The problem is that, unlike their time in the bubble, Utah is healthy, as Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles and Bojan Bogdanovic are all active and filling large roles. That could hurt the upside of Donovan Mitchell at times, though he is bound to bust out of his current shooting slump, as he’s shooting just 32% from the field to start the season. Rudy Gobert would be my top option from Utah, as he’s so consistent, posting a double-double in all three games so far, while his 21.0 rebounding opportunities per game are good for third-most in basketball. Ayton is an improved defender on the other side but still has ways to go, while he’s always around the basket on offense, averaging 11 paint touches per game, the second-most in the league. That will keep Gobert around the rim, presenting him with those rebounding and shot-blocking chances were love. Finally, if looking for value, Royce O'Neale is just $3,800 on DK, continues to start and has logged 28, 34 and 34 minutes. The usage is nonexistent, but he is averaging nearly nine rebounds per game through the first three games of the year.
