Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We have six games on tap for Wednesday around the NBA and a rather straightforward DFS slate, as only one game carries a spread within four points and there isn’t a ton of injury news to dissect.
With a couple of games under our belt for just about every team, the pace and defensive efficiency metrics listed are now current. That said, it’s important to take them with a bit more of a grain of salt than normal considering we are still less than a week into the season.
Vegas Odds derived from DraftKings SportsBook.
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Memphis Grizzlies @ Boston Celtics (-9)
Pace: MEM (7th), BOS (T26th)
Defensive efficiency: MEM (21st), BOS (29th)
With Ja Morant officially expected to miss the next 3-5 weeks, we can attack this Memphis team based on the rotation we saw for most of the second half against the Nets Monday. That means a high-usage Dillon Brooks (33.3% without Morant this season), a bump for Kyle Anderson (25.7% usage without Morant, 16.7% assist rate), and more playing time for Tyus Jones. The issue, however, is that the Grizzlies have been priced up around the industry with this in mind. Because of this, nobody on this team stands out as a core play, but they make sense as lineup fillers if needed. Jonas Valanciunas is an elite GPP target as usual, however, as his price didn’t rise to an egregious level and he’s still averaging over a fantasy point per minute (1.04).
Jayson Tatum is going to turn it on at some point, as he’s averaging just over one free throw attempt per game and as many turnovers as assists. It just depends if you care to get ahead of the curve. In a pace-up matchup, he’s enticing, but it makes sense to save over $1,000 and opt for Jaylen Brown instead, who has still posted a 27.2% usage rate with a higher assist rate than Tatum, as well as 1.17 FPPM. There’s also the chance for Tristan Thompson to rest on the second leg of a back-to-back since Brad Stevens said they are being cautious with his minutes. Valanciunas is not a center to go out of the way to target, but it would make both Daniel Theis and Robert Williams extremely appealing at their prices.
Atlanta Hawks @ Brooklyn Nets (-7)
Pace: ATL (11th), BKN (T12th)
Defensive efficiency: ATL (16th), BKN (1st)
Both Kevin Durant ($8,400) and Kyrie Irving ($8,900) are expected back after sitting out last game for rest, and both are a tad too cheap on DraftKings. While Atlanta’s defense has improved, it’s still one to attack and is good enough to now keep games like this close. Both will garner massive usage (even more so with Spencer Dinwiddie out) and are not priced for their projected ceilings.
Caris LeVert ($6,900) is still an appealing play even with the stars back in the lineup, as the absence of Dinwiddie will open up some usage when Durant and Irving are off of the court. If leveraging against the ownership in this game, it makes sense to get some exposure to LeVert in lineups that don’t have Irving/Durant.
It makes sense to game stack with Durant and/or Irving, making both Trae Young and John Collins appealing targets. Young has been playing on another level this season (34.0% usage rate, 1.56 FPPM) and remains under $10,000 on DraftKings, while Collins’ early-season foul trouble has caused his price to drop all the way to $7,100.
Based on whether Danillo Gallinari plays, the wings on the Hawks are viable as well, particularly Bogdan Bogdanovic. He remains cheap ($4,800 on DraftKings) and is averaging a fantasy point per minute and should continue to get a decent amount of ball-handling responsibility.
Milwaukee Bucks (-6) @ Miami Heat
Pace: MIL (10th), MIA (T16th)
Defensive efficiency: MIL (14th), MIA (26th)
The first game of back-to-back matchups between these two teams Tuesday got out of hand quickly, as the Bucks blew out the Heat from start to finish. In terms of this game, it’s wise to scrap the first game and move on. There is a non-zero chance it happens again, but that chance is incredibly low, especially if Jimmy Butler plays.
The usual suspects are in play for the Bucks, as Giannis Antetokounmpo could be in for a full workload if Butler is active for the Heat. If he’s not, Khris Middleton makes sense once again with an easier matchup. He proved that on Tuesday, posting 25 points, five assists and four rebounds in only 25 minutes. Jrue Holiday also got back on track, with 24 points, seven assists and three steals in 26 minutes. His 10 three-point attempts also raise his ceiling on DraftKings.
For the Heat, if Butler is in, we can safely target him, Bam Adebayo and the rest of the Heat cast like normal, especially seeing that their prices dropped. If he’s out, we can go right back to the well with Tyler Herro, who’s posting a 22.6% usage rate and 30.3% assist rate with Butler out of the lineup this season. Goran Dragic would be targetable again, even after playing only 10 minutes in the blowout. This is a good spot to buy-low on Dragic, as his price dropped and he still averages as 28.3% usage rate sans Butler. As long as the game doesn’t blow out, he’ll have a significant role.
Charlotte Hornets @ Dallas Mavericks (-8)
Pace: CHA (8th), DAL (30th)
Defensive efficiency: CHA (T9th), DAL (15th)
There may not be a hotter player in the NBA right now than Terry Rozier, but are you willing to pay $6,800 for him? He’s posted a 26.8% usage rate and 1.23 FPPM, so the back-end numbers are certainly there to back his production, but given the fact that he’s so scoring dependent, it makes sense to reserve him for GPPs. In cash, Devonte’ Graham is an appealing pivot, as he’s posted a 28.4% assist rate and would benefit in terms of matchup if Josh Richardson sits out. Assuming he normalizes on his 35.3% field-goal percentage, he has a nice ceiling for his price.
As for the frontcourt, Gordon Hayward is priced at a really safe point ($7,200), which is manageable given his role on this team. Bismack Biyombo saw his price rise based on his production without Cody Zeller in the lineup, so P.J. Washington makes for a higher-ceiling pivot, as he saw 35 minutes last game and is averaging 12 field goal attempts per game.
On the other side of the ball, it’s hard to get away from Luka Doncic in this one. He’s been disappointing this season (by his standards), but he draws a pace-up spot against an exploitable defense with the other primary ball-handler (Josh Richardson) questionable for the game. At $10,700, he’s the top spend-up on the slate.
If Richardson is to miss the game, it could mean an incremental bump in playing time for both Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke. While both are cheap and Burke is a high-usage player, neither can be deemed “safe.” Dorian Finney-Smith is always in play at under $5,000 on DraftKings given his ability to rack up peripherals, making him a fine piece to round out your lineup.
Los Angeles Lakers (-6) @ San Antonio Spurs
Pace: LAL (T12th), SA (5th)
Defensive efficiency: LAL (8th), SA (T11th)
LeBron James is listed as questionable for this game, but based on the fact that he was able to go last game, he seems like he’s on the right side of that tag. As alluded to by David Jones on the Tuesday night’s podcast, if he’s active and if you’re going to target James and Anthony Davis, it’s important (and profitable) to hedge another lineup with the other. Both are in targetable spots Wednesday, as the Spurs run the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA.
That said, Dennis Schroder continues to be my favorite Laker, dollar-for-dollar. His price refuses to budge, as he still sits at $6,200 on DraftKings despite posting a 25.2% usage rate, 24.2% assist rate and 1.15 FPPM. He may see a few extra minutes with Alex Caruso out, as well. If James ends up sitting, Schroder would be a massive beneficiary.
The Spurs have some appealing options as well, as Derrick White remains out, which should cement reliable playing time for Dejounte Murray. His $6,100 price tag still feels a touch cheap for being a nightly triple-double threat. Both DeMar DeRozan ($6,900) and LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300) also feel cheap. DeRozan in particular is averaging 1.34 FPPN on a 22.8% usage rate and 35.5% assist rate, making him one of my top mid-tier players.
Both Keldon Johnson and Lonnie Walker are viable value options, as they continue to see good run on the wing with White out, and should come at lower ownership.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5)
Pace: POR (25th), LAC (29th)
Defensive efficiency: POR (27th), LAC (22nd)
The tightest spread of the slate happens to come from the last game, which also carries a significant question mark as Kawhi Leonard is still deemed questionable. Seeing as he sat out Tuesday in the first of a back-to-back, it makes sense that he would suit up Wednesday. If that’s the case, getting him for under $10,000 against one of the worst defenses in the league seems like an appealing GPP strategy.
Paul George would also remain viable, but his ceiling would take a hit should Leonard play. The rest of the Clippers’ cast is hard to trust, as Serge Ibaka’s minutes have been everything but trustworthy, while the production on the wings from Nicolas Batum, Lou Williams and Luke Kennard has been rather underwhelming.
The Portland side of this game is in a similar boat. Outside of Damian Lillard ($10,000) and CJ McCollum ($7,900) — both elite tournament plays but feel unnecessary for cash games — it’s hard to trust the rest of the team. Jusuf Nurkic still profiles as an elite GPP play, as the only thing between him and a monster night is his minutes. Against Ibaka, we could see him deployed more in this game, making him a worthwhile tournament flyer.
