Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
In the blink of an eye, NBA basketball is back. There’s no better time of year for sports right now (in my opinion), as the college football playoffs are around the corner, NFL regular season is winding down and now, due to the coronavirus pandemic, we get a December start for basketball.
Soak it in, this is going to be an awesome season. Much like the game-by-game breakdowns from 2020 bubble play, I will go through each game providing Vegas totals and spreads, highlight pace and defensive efficiency metrics, followed by a brief breakdown, and the plays to target in each game.
Cash plays are typically viable in all formats, but their floor/ceiling combination as well as their expected ownership makes them safer than strict GPP plays. If a cash play is bolded, that means the players is a core play for me.
Keep in mind that early in the season, these pace and defensive efficiency metrics are not necessarily 100% indicative of how teams will play, considering how many players and coaches find themselves in a new situation. As the year progresses, I will transition from using 2019-20 metrics into using 2020-21 metrics.
Vegas odds from DraftKings SportsBook.
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Golden State Warriors @ Brooklyn Nets (-7) – 230.5 total
Pace: GSW (14th), BKN (T-8th)
Defensive efficiency: GSW (T-25th), BKN (T-9th)
This game features an array of high-profile hoopers in which the best three are taking the floor for their first regular-season game in quite some time due to injury. The preseason showed us that all three should be on track for a full workload, as Stephen Curry (26) and Kevin Durant (25.5) averaged over 25 minutes per game while Kyrie Irving slightly trailed at 22.5.
Because of the ridiculous usage rates that these three command, they clock in as elite plays on a two-game slate, with Curry being the best dollar-for-dollar option. In terms of ancillary pieces, it’s best to take a wait-and-see approach with Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre and Co. in cash until we see how the rotation and offensive usage shakes out. The one other core piece from Golden State is Eric Paschall, who should draw the start at the power forward position with Draymond Green doubtful. A matchup with Durant isn’t ideal, but we could potentially see Wiggins and Oubre switch onto the former MVP, making Paschall too cheap for the minutes in front of him after averaging almost a fantasy point per minute without Draymond Green active last season. Should James Wiseman get the starting nod, he makes for a viable GPP flyer as Steve Kerr has sounded high on the rookie, stating “he should be the starter before too long, it might happen Tuesday.”
For the Nets, the addition/return of Irving and Durant should really narrow down the usage in the starting unit, making it hard to trust the ancillary pieces like Caris LeVert (especially with his knee issue) in cash. If Jarrett Allen draws the start, however, he makes for a high-upside play at a thin position. Joe Harris is another likely-starter worthy of consideration due to the size of the slate. While his usage will drop, his three-point upside is a huge perk for his price on DraftKings.
The other Net worth consideration is Spencer Dinwiddie, who should carry a sky-high usage rate off the bench with Irving and Durant starting. While those two are likely to be staggered, the Warriors ranked 22nd against dimers, 23rd against primary ball-handlers and 24th against crafty finishers, which is where Dinwiddie excels.
Cash plays: Stephen Curry, Eric Paschall, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris
GPP plays: Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre, Jarrett Allen, DeAndre Jordan, Caris LeVert (large-field only, likely going to be limited due to knee issue), James Wiseman (if starting), Kevon Looney (if starting)
Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers (-1) – 224 total
Pace: LAC (T-8th), LAL (T-11th)
Defensive efficiency: LAC (6th), LAL (3rd)
LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George. Talk about star-studded. You really don’t need convincing to play any of these players, especially with the softer salaries on opening night, but if ranking them, my preference goes Davis, Leonard, George, James.
While just as star-studded as the first game, this game features more reliable options in terms of filling out the rest of your lineup, especially in the $5k range on DraftKings. In that range alone, we have Dennis Schroder, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell and Serge Ibaka. There’ve been strong murmurs out of Lakers’ camp that Schroder has been pushing to start, which could be a massive boost to the usage of Harrell with the second unit. When Harrell was on the court without Lou Williams last season, he saw a +1.80 bump in DraftKings points per game and +1.83 bump on FanDuel, something we can parallel to his expected dynamic with Schroder.
Out of the rest of that range, Williams looks like the best bet at $5,400 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel. Without any other second-unit player to siphon his usage, he could flirt with a 30% clip on top of closing the game. From there, Harrell would be my second priority, with Ibaka following at third. Given Ibaka’s size, he realistically has 26-plus minutes on tap against a big Lakers team. Schroder’s stock will be a lot higher if he comes off the bench, as he’s an easier fade in cash if he’s sharing the floor with James and Davis.
The noteworthy news in this game is the fact that $64 milllion man Marcus Morris is out. This should open up minutes and a potential spot-start for one of Luke Kennard or Nicolas Batum. Kennard is a better player and value, making him the easy choice, especially given his price. Batum is min-priced on FanDuel, so you can consider him a cash game value, but only if he starts. He’s someone I would full fade in GPPs, as well. Patrick Beverley is the other semi-viable value here in tournaments, as there’s a solid chance he’s called upon to shadow LeBron for a chunk of the game, which is always a recipe for heightened peripherals.
Cash plays: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Montrezl Harrell, Lou Williams, Serge Ibaka, Luke Kennard, Nicolas Batum (FanDuel cash — only if starting)
GPP plays: Dennis Schroder, Patrick Beverley, Marc Gasol
