Week 3 NFL Picks, Predictions & Best Bets | NFL Picks Against the Spread | NFL Props | Survivor
Chris Meaney
Saturday presents us with eight total games around the NBA, with the NBA DFS main slate being a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.
Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker.
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Pistons at Pacers preview
IND -4.5, total: 224.5
The Pacers come into this game once again with a thin frontcourt, as Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are out, while Jeremy Lamb, Goga Bitadze and Doug McDermott are all questionable.
We saw them all sit out last game, leading to Oshae Brissett posting a 23-point, 12-rebound double-double and 51.5 DK points. If they’re all out again and he ends up starting, it’ll be incredibly hard to get away from him at only $4,200 with dual-position eligibility. This would also lead to more minutes for Justin Holiday and Edmond Sumner, though neither are as strong of a value option as Brissett. If Bitadze and/or McDermott are active, they would be elite plays in their own right, given the lack of depth in the frontcourt.
This, of course, also makes both Malcolm Brogdon and Caris LeVert elite options, as both played around 40 minutes last game, posting 29 and 28 points, respectively, while Brogdon added 15 rebounds and seven assists. He would be my preference between the two for only $200 more.
This is a rather attractive matchup for the Pistons with Myles Turner out, making Mason Plumlee a strong value at $4,900. While his minutes are far from as secure as they were at the beginning of the season, he’s been effective when active, posting 44 DK points in 32 minutes in his last start. Jerami Grant also benefits from this and at $6,700, he has a ton of upside if active.
With Cory Joseph back, the minutes won’t be as secure for Killian Hayes, but he’s still viable at $4,800 if he draws the start given his ability to rack up peripherals in a hurry.
Bulls at Heat preview
MIA -4.5, total: 207.5
With Zach LaVine out once again, we can continue to break this Bulls team down as we have over the last week and frankly, it comes down to two players: Coby White and Nikola Vucevic. The rest of the team is rather unappealing in this matchup.
White has stepped into the starting lineup and assumed a primary scorer’s role, averaging 17.2 points, 6.4 assists, and 3.2 rebounds over his last five games and 1.05 DKP/min over the last week. His sub-$6,000 price tag is still far too cheap. Vucevic, on the other hand, has been priced up above $10,000 on DraftKings but is only $8,700 on FanDuel. This makes him one of the best bargains at the position on FanDuel, having topped 44 FDP in six of his last seven games.
The Bulls have been competitive enough and the Heat haven’t been blowing teams out, giving me some interest in Jimmy Butler at $9,500. His ceiling is still sky-high (60-70 DKP) and if looking to come off one of the top-tier studs, he’s a great pivot. Because of the extremely low total in this game, however, I don’t have much interest in the Heat outside of Butler and Bam Adebayo in large-field tournaments, as the center spot is not as exploitable against the Bulls as it was earlier in the season.
Spurs at Pelicans preview
NOP -3, total: 228.5
DeMar DeRozan was a late scratch last game and finds himself questionable with a quad issue on Saturday. His potential absence would certainly open up more shots in an exploitable matchup, primarily for Derrick White and Dejounte Murray. The former posted 26 points, 8 assists and 7 rebounds last game in DeRozan’s absence and would be an elite play once again, especially on FanDuel for only $5,600. On DraftKings, I have more interest in Dejounte Murray, who sat out Thursday’s game due to rest. He’s only $400 more than White on DraftKings and comes with a massive ceiling in a game that bleeds production to guards.
Lonnie Walker would also be a viable value if DeRozan is ruled out, though not one with an incredibly high ceiling.
For the Pelicans, both Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram are viable here, with Williamson carrying the higher ceiling, but Ingram offering a $1,300 discount. Neither find themselves as must-plays, but I won’t argue with you if you want to get to one of them. I also like pairing Lonzo Ball with one of them, as his minutes restriction has now been lifted and he’s fresh off of a 12-assist game. Naji Marshall is a bit expensive on DraftKings, but I have an interest on FanDuel given his $4,700 price tag. The floor is certainly there, but so is his ceiling, as he’s posted 30 or more FanDuel points in three of his last five games.
Lakers at Mavericks preview
DAL -2.5, total: 216.5
On a slate starving for high-priced studs, Luka Doncic stands out as one of the very few players priced above $10,000 who carries a ceiling over 70 DraftKings points. He’s the highest-priced player on the slate and given that Kristaps Porzingis is in danger of missing this game, he has the potential to be the top overall play on the slate. He just posted over 58 DKP against this same Lakers’ team last game and the presence of Anthony Davis on the other side should help keep this game competitive.
If Porzingis is active, he makes for a fine pivot off Doncic, but this isn’t a hedge that I would make a priority on this slate. If he’s out, we can look to Dorian Finney-Smith, Tim Hardaway, Josh Richardson and Maxi Kleber (if active) to soak up minutes and production.
While Davis at $9,400 always looks enticing, it seems wise to hold off until he ramps up to a full workload, having played only 17 minutes in his first game back. He’s certainly primed to play more on Saturday, but $9,400 for that type of inherent risk is not something I want to do on this slate. If I’m going anywhere on the Lakers, it’ll be Dennis Schroder for under $7,000. He’s topped 47 DraftKings points in two of his last three games while averaging 1.12 DKP/min with a 24.3% usage rate and 36.7% assist rate over the last two weeks.
Timberwolves at Jazz preview
UTA -12, total: 231
This has the potential to be one of, if not the most lopsided games on the entire slate. Because of the matchup, I have very little interest in the Timberwolves’ side of this game. My only interest would be in Karl-Anthony Towns, who should come in at incredibly low ownership and gets an exploitable matchup (from a DFS perspective) against Rudy Gobert. While Gobert is the frontrunner for defensive player of the year, he struggles with bigs who have the ability to stretch him to the perimeter, something Towns has the ability to do.
For the Jazz, this is as good of a matchup as they come. Donovan Mitchell remains out, leaving us with Mike Conley (24.6% usage rate, 1.41 DKP/min over the last week without Mitchell) and Jordan Clarkson (28.4% usage rate, 0.99 DKP/min over the last week without Mitchell). Of the two, Conley is my lean. This should also continue to open up more looks for Bojan Bogdanovic, who’s posted a 26.9% usage rate without Mitchell over the last week.
Rudy Gobert is also viable, as he’s averaged 1.52 DKP/min over the last week and draws an exploitable matchup against Towns in the post.
Rockets at Nuggets preview
DEN -13.5, total: 222
The reason that the previous game may not be the most lopsided game on the slate is that we have this game as the nightcap and John Wall is expected to rest. With both Wall and Kevin Porter out, we should see a lot of Armoni Brooks in the backcourt. He’s started two consecutive games, averaging 32.5 minutes per game in those contests en route to 7.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game. Sure, these aren’t eye-popping numbers, but he’ll only have more opportunities to produce with Wall out, making him an elite value play at $3,800.
Christian Wood is also expected to sit out after tweaking his ankle Friday, leaving Kelly Olynyk to lead the frontcourt at $6,700 on DraftKings. His price still makes him an elite option, but he isn’t necessarily a must-play like he was in these scenarios when he was sub-$5,000. On FanDuel, however, his $5,000 price tag makes him an elite value option at center. Kenyon Martin, Danuel House and Jae'Sean Tate are all viable as well simply due to how thin the Rockets are, as they very well may only have eight active bodies on this slate.
This matchup should help Nikola Jokic bounce back after a disappointing game Friday, though because of the blowout concerns, I have Doncic as a bigger priority than Jokic if spending up for a stud. Michael Porter is also enticing here, but at his price tag, you really want 50 DraftKings points to feel stellar about the play and while the matchup certainly provides a path to that upside, it also provides a path to failure due to the projected game script.
PJ Dozier is the Nuggets player I have the most interest in on this slate. He’s far too cheap on both sites and has posted 20 or more DraftKings points in four of his last five games. With Will Barton’s status in doubt for Saturday, he should see even more minutes after seeing 30 Friday without Monte Morris, Jamal Murray and Barton. He’s also rather immune to the game script where this becomes a blowout.
