NBA first look: DFS breakdown for June 7

Monday presents us with a pair of games for the NBA DFS slate, with Game 2 between the Nets and Bucks kicking the slate off, followed by Game 1 of the Suns and Nuggets series out west.

As always, the game-by-game breakdown will provide a brief overview of each and every game on the slate, highlighting players that stand out. This doesn’t, however, mean that every player will be touched on. If a player is excluded from the breakdown, that simply means that they didn’t stand out as one that necessarily needs to be in your player pool. Again, this is the first look. Things will change given the news throughout the day, but I will do my best to prime you for all of the hypotheticals that we can forecast.

Vegas data at the time of writing listed is the consensus odds from the FTN NBA Odds Tracker. 

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Bucks at Nets preview

BKN -1.5, total: 234

The big storyline here is that James Harden has already been ruled out for Game 2. This is a situation we’ve seen more often than not during the regular season, as the same hamstring injury caused him to miss 21 games since becoming a Net. This will obviously open up more production for Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. Both are extremely viable on this slate with Durant being my lean, as he was the clear alpha in Game 1, especially in the second half.

The biggest beneficiary in terms of minutes was backup point guard Mike James, who turned in 30 minutes en route to roughly 26 DKP at minimum price. If Game 1 is any indication, he’s likely to serve as either the primary backup PG with Harden out or potentially slot into the starting lineup, making him the best value option on the slate. Joe Harris and Blake Griffin should also see an uptick in volume, making them both viable. Griffin is likely to carry some inflated ownership after his 18-point, 14-rebound double-double in Game 1, as well. In terms of the big men, DeAndre Jordan drew a surprising DNP-CD while Nicolas Claxton saw 14 minutes off of the bench. At $3,100, there’s definitely merit to Claxton against a rather big frontcourt.

The Bucks rotation came exactly how I expected, with P.J. Tucker sliding into the starting lineup to try and counter Kevin Durant. He saw 28 minutes and while he’s never going to be a great point-per-minute player, $3,200 makes him an incredibly viable value option on a two-game slate. Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes remain decent value punts on this slate, but it’s hard to prioritize them given the value that James and Tucker provide in the same game.

In terms of the main players in this rotation, there’s no analysis needed as to why Giannis Antetokounmpo is an elite option. His 35 minutes in Game 1 are certainly disappointing, but he posted 34 points, 11 rebounds and four assists in that span. He should only be building on that production if he starts to get even more playing time. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton had forgettable outings from the field, but these two are some of the more efficient players in the NBA, and I would expect a bounce-back sooner rather than later. I prefer Holiday for his peripheral upside, but Middleton is a prime buy-low candidate. Brook Lopez is another player who we could see more involved, as he was extremely effective in the low post whenever he got the ball. We could see the Bucks force the ball to him to force the Nets to avoid a small ball strategy, making him a worthwhile value at the center position.

Nuggets at Suns preview

PHO -4.5, total: 220.5

The Nuggets were able to put away the Blazers in six games and much of that came on the back of Nikola Jokic (shocking, I know). He attempted at least 20 field goals in all six games of the series and while that’s caused his assist rate to drop from what we saw in the regular season, the increase in volume/scoring has mitigated the fantasy production lost from the lack of assists. He should flirt with 40 minutes in this game, making him one of the top overall plays on the slate.

If not opting for Jokic, it makes sense to look to Michael Porter Jr. in tournaments, though this is bound to be a far more difficult test for him than Round 1. Volume is the key to Porter Jr.’s success, as he topped 39 DK points in all three games that he made at least 10 field goals last series, whereas he failed to eclipse 30 DK points in the three games where he only made five or fewer field goals. Mikal Bridges will likely be in his grill throughout the game, so there’s a bit more volatility here, but he’s still cheap enough where he carries massive upside in tournaments.

Facundo Campazzo and Monte Morris are the two point guards who I have an interest in here, with Morris garnering more interest than Campazzo given the fact that he comes off of the bench and plays enough off-guard where he’ll avoid Chris Paul. Campazzo is still a viable play sub-$6,000, but better left for tournaments. Aaron Gordon has shown life over the last two games and could be a bigger factor if we see Porter Jr. take a back seat. If we project him to see 33-plus minutes like the last two games, he’s worth a shot at $5,500.

On the Suns’ side, Devin Booker comes in as one of my favorite plays on the entire slate. While he’s not on the same level as Damian Lillard, we saw Denver struggle to contain scoring guards like Booker last series (Lillard, Powell for a game, McCollum), giving Booker a heap of upside for his price. Chris Paul is also viable, but I’ll remain cautious with his shoulder injury.

Deandre Ayton is worth a look considering the fact that he should see close to 40 minutes, but a matchup with Jokic is one that could lead to a ton of issues for Ayton, making him more of a GPP play for me whereas he was a stronger cash-game play last round. Outside of the big three on the Suns, Jae Crowder, Mikal Bridges and Cameron Payne are all worth a look when filling out the last few spots on your roster.