NBA DFS Preview – First Look (3/7)

Sunday’s main NBA slate was absolutely wild, and now we kick off the week with an eight-game slate on Monday that features one team that stands out above the rest. There should be plenty of value available on this slate. Let’s take an early look at what stands out.

Be sure to check out the FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for March 6 | NBA DFS First Look

Atlanta Hawks @ Detroit Pistons

ATL -7.5, total: 226.5
Pace: ATL (20th), DET (12th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kevin Huerter is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury for Atlanta. 
• For Detroit, Hamidou Diallo is listed as questionable with an illness.

Chicago Bulls @ Philadelphia 76ers

PHI -7.5, total: 232
Pace: CHI (14th), PHI (28th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nikola Vucevic (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Chicago. 

Houston Rockets @ Miami Heat

MIA -15, total: 224
Pace: HOU (1st), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Kyle Lowry will remain out for Miami due to personal reasons. 
• Dennis Schroder (ankle) is listed as questionable for the Rockets.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -14.5, total: 233
Pace: POR (17th), MIN (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Anfernee Simons (quad) will not play in Monday’s game, leaving Portland even more short-handed than usual.
• For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards is listed as doubtful, while Patrick Beverley (ankle) is questionable to play.

Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks

DAL -1, total: 217.5
Pace: UTA (19th), DAL (30th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic (toe) is listed as probable. Meanwhile, Jalen Brunson (foot) is listed as questionable for Dallas.

Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -2, total: 234.5
Pace: LAL (6th), SAS (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Dejounte Murray is listed as questionable with a calf injury. Devin Vassell (hamstring) is also listed as questionable for the Spurs.
• LeBron James is once again listed as questionable but will more than likely play.

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -7.5, total: 223.5
Pace: GSW (12th), DEN (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• The Warriors have ruled out Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins for this game. Gary Payton has also been ruled out.
• Will Barton is dealing with a sprained ankle and could miss this game for Denver.

New York Knicks @ Sacramento Kings

SAC -3.5, total: 231.5
Pace: NYK (26th), SAC (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nerlens Noel, Obi Toppin and Taj Gibson will all be listed as questionable for New York.

Matchups to Target | NBA DFS First Look

Mitchell Robinson vs. Sacramento Kings

At the moment, Robinson is really the only healthy member of New York’s frontcourt, as Nerlens Noel, Obi Toppin and Taj Gibson are all listed as questionable. But regardless, Robinson is in a very strong spot today, facing a fast-paced Sacramento team that struggles to defend. The Kings are coughing up the fifth-most putback points per game on the year (7.1), as well as the fourth-worst field goal percentage off the play type (61.6%). That bodes extremely well for Robinson, who quietly leads the entire NBA in points per game off putbacks this season (3.8), while sporting an absurd 42.4% frequency rate off the play type. Sacramento is also allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage at the rim (67.4%), while an insane 98% of Robinson’s field goal attempts have come at the rim.

Dejounte Murray vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Murray is listed as questionable for this game, but if he suits up he becomes one of the top plays of the slate. Los Angeles cannot defend the point guard position, coughing up the most real points per game (25.3) and third-most rebounds per game (7.04) to opposing point guards. Both teams play at top-five paces in the NBA, and as a result Los Angeles is coughing up the third-most transition points per game on the year (21.4), as well as the third-highest frequency rate off the play type (16.9%). Even on a slate of this size, it wouldn’t surprise me if Murray finished as the highest-scorer on Monday.

Trae Young vs. Detroit Pistons

While I love Murray if he plays, I also really like Young against Detroit. John Collins is back, which takes some usage away, but Young is still sporting a very healthy 33.5% usage rate with Collins on the floor this season. Young scored 52.5 fantasy points when these teams last met, and it’s such a good spot that it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw a repeat performance. The Pistons are allowing 0.98 points per possession to opposing ball-handlers out of the pick-and-roll this season, the highest mark in the NBA. They are also coughing up the second-highest field goal percentage off the play type (46.5%), while Young is averaging a league-leading 13.6 points per game out of the pick-and-roll. With the Pistons also allowing the third-worst field goal percentage off screens (45%), it truly is a perfect matchup for Young.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

The Golden State Warriors- Seriously. Golden State will be without Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins and Gary Payton for this game. Anyone in the Warriors’ rotation likely projects as an elite value play.

Keon Johnson vs. MIN- With Portland absolutely depleted, Johnson should be in line for 30 minutes or so once again, especially with Anfernee Simons now ruled out. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Jalen Green (42)
Immanuel Quickley (47)
Bojan Bogdanovic (50.25)
Chris Boucher (40.25)
Steven Adams (53.75)
Monte Morris (35.75)
Evan Mobley (53.25)
Nikola Jokic (93.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Immanuel Quickley (44)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (68.4)
Desmond Bane (42.9)
CJ McCollum (45.5)
Bojan Bogdanovic (43.5)
Scottie Barnes (51.4)
Aaron Gordon (46.6)
Chris Boucher (41.9)
Nikola Jokic (92.9)