NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/6)

There is a loaded 10-game NBA DFS slate to start the week Monday, and once again, the Charlotte Hornets are going to be the team that sets the tone. 

Let’s take a look at what to know for DFS Monday. Be sure to pay attention to news over the course of the day and, as always, pair all of the content with the terrific FTN NBA Optimizer.

NBA Vegas Data for December 6 | NBA DFS First Look

Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets

PHI -7, total: 219.5
Pace: PHI (25th), CHA (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• The Hornets will remain without LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels and Mason Plumlee.
• For the 76ers, Tobias Harris is listed as questionable with an illness. He missed Friday’s game against the Hawks.

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Detroit Pistons

DET -5, total: 206
Pace: OKC (7th), DET (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will remain out with a concussion. He missed the Thunder’s last game against Memphis.

Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers

IND -5.5, total: 211
Pace: WAS (21st), IND (11th)

Situations to monitor: 

• Justin Holiday and T.J. McConnell will remain out for the Pacers.
• Spencer Dinwiddie has not played on the second end of back-to-backs this season, which means he could be out for this game.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Miami Heat

MIA -5, total: 214
Pace: MEM (16th), MIA (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler, who has missed the last four games with a tailbone injury, is questionable for Monday’s contest.
• Ja Morant, meanwhile, will remain out for the Grizzlies.

Denver Nuggets @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -4.5, total: 214
Pace: DEN (30th), CHI (22nd)

Situations to monitor:

• Alex Caruso (hamstring) is doubtful, while Coby White will remain sidelined after testing positive for COVID-19.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Milwaukee Bucks

MIL -7, total: 215
Pace: CLE (20th), MIL (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable with a calf injury. He’s missed the last two games for the Bucks.
• Grayson Allen (illness) is also listed as questionable.

Atlanta Hawks @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -2, total: 221
Pace: ATL (18th), MIN (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Karl-Anthony Towns missed the last game with a tailbone injury, and although he practiced Sunday, he is listed as questionable. Meanwhile, D’Angelo Russell is also questionable with ankle soreness.
• For the Hawks, Bogdan Bogdanovic will be out, while Cam Reddish is questionable with an illness.

San Antonio Spurs @ Phoenix Suns

PHX -7.5, total: 218
Pace: SAS (11th), PHX (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Devin Booker will remain out with his hamstring injury. Landry Shamet has been starting at shooting guard in his absence.

Orlando Magic @ Golden State Warriors

GSW -14.5, total: 216.5
Pace: ORL (6th), GSW (14th)

Situations to monitor:

• None.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Portland Trail Blazers

LAC -3, total: 215
Pace: LAC (19th), POR (24th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons will remain sidelined for Portland, while CJ McCollum (ribs) is listed as probable.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Ish Smith posted 79 touches in Charlotte’s last game

The Hornets are very depleted — LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels and Mason Plumlee are all in the league’s COVID-19 protocols. Smith got the start at point guard over the weekend and was productive, scoring 18 points to go along with five rebounds, seven assists and one steal in 32 minutes. Ball is averaging 89.4 touches per game this season, a number that ranks fifth in all of basketball, so his absence obviously looms large. In Smith’s start over the weekend, he led the Hornets with 79 touches, obviously up from his season average of 31.2 touches per game, while possessing the ball for a very healthy 6.5 minutes. And with both Ball and Rozier off the floor this season, the veteran point guard is sporting a solid 22.4% usage rate to go along with an 18% assist rate.

The Chicago Bulls are allowing 5.9 post-up points per game this season

That is the highest number in the NBA, while the Bulls are also coughing up a 5.7% frequency rate off the play type, good for the second-highest mark in the league. This bodes extremely, extremely well for Nikola Jokic, who currently ranks second in basketball in post-up points per game (5.5), while his 5.1 post-up possessions per game also trail only Joel Embiid. Jokic is also shooting an impressive 55.7% from the post, while averaging an outstanding 1.07 points per possession off the play type. Nikola Vucevic is allowing the second-most points per game from the post as a defender this season (1.7), as well as a 54% field goal percentage. This is an amazing spot for Jokic. 

Josh Giddey is averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander off the floor

Gilgeous-Alexander will remain out for the Thunder Monday as he recovers from a concussion. Giddey didn’t play in the Grizzlies’ destruction of the Thunder the other day, but he will be back here, making him an elite mid-range play. With SGA off the floor this season, Giddey starts at point guard and runs the offense, sporting a 22% usage rate to go along with an impressive 29% rebounding rate and 22% assist rate. When Giddey last started at point guard in SGA’s absence, he touched the ball a whopping 100 times, while possessing the ball for 7.6 minutes in that game against the Hawks, while also posting 17 potential assists.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Ish Smith (37.25)
Cody Martin (37.5)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (34.5)
Miles Bridges (53.0)
John Collins (53.5)
Brandon Ingram (57.75)
Kevin Huerter (38.0)
Kelly Oubre (39.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Ish Smith (36.5)
Trae Young (49.3)
Kevin Huerter (33.9)
Cody Martin (37.2)
Miles Bridges (54.8)
Brandon Ingram (58.0)
P.J. Washington (33.7)
John Collins (49.4)
Willy Hernangomez (34.3)

You aren’t going to see many differences in the optimal lineups, as Sunday’s main slate was just three games. The Hornets were obviously so depleted, meaning Ish Smith, Miles Bridges, Kelly Oubre and Cody Martin all had very good games.