NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/26)

Every morning on FTNDaily, we will have a comprehensive first look article at that day’s NBA DFS slate. This will be your go-to destination for NBA game environments, fantasy-relevant situations to monitor, a quick look at the top-priced players across the industry, and some stats to get you started with the slate.

Looking for an edge in your NBA DFS contests? Our NBA package includes a state-of-the-art LineupEDGE Optimizer, advanced DvP and On/Off tools, player projection models, and more to consistently vault you to the top of the NBA leaderboards in your DFS contests.

We have seven games on Sunday’s slate, so let’s dive in.

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

NBA Vegas Data for December 26th | NBA DFS First Look

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

CLE -8.5, total: 205.5

Pace: TOR (26th), CLE (21st)

Situations to monitor:

• Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent, and Precious Achiuwa are out for the Raptors. Pascal Siakam, Khem Birch, Justin Champagnie, and Dalano Banton are listed as questionable.
• Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Collin Sexton, and Cedi Osman are all out for the Cavs. Isaac Okoro is listed as questionable.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Washington Wizards

PHI -3.5, total: 209.5

Pace: PHI 930th), WAS (23rd)

Situations to monitor:

• Andre Drummond, Shake Milton, and Danny Green are out for the Sixers. Tyrese Maxey and Georges Niang are listed as questionable.
• Bradley Beal, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Thomas Bryant are all out for the Wizards. Rui Hachimura is listed as questionable.

Memphis Grizzlies @ Sacramento Kings

MEM -5, total: 225.0

Pace: MEM (12th), SAC (5th)

Situations to monitor:

• Brandon Clarke is listed as questionable for the Grizzlies.
• De’Aaron Fox, Terence Davis, and Alex Len are questionable for the Kings. Davion Mitchell remains out.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC -1, total: 210.0

Pace: NOP (22nd), OKC (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are out for the Pelicans.

Detroit Pistons @ San Antonio Spurs

SAS -10.5, total: 220.5

Pace: DET (13th), SAS (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Cade Cunningham, Jerami Grant, Kelly Olynyk, Trey Lyles, Isaiah Stewart, Saben Lee, and Killian Hayes are all out for the Pistons.
• Doug McDermott is listed as questionable for the Spurs.

Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls

CHI -7.5, total: 216.5

Pace: IND (25th), CHI (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon are listed as questionable for the Pacers. T.J. Warren and T.J. McConnell remain out.
• Alex Caruso and Derrick Jones are out for the Bulls.

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers

DEN -4, total: 211.5

Pace: DEN (24th), LAC (10th)

Situations to monitor:

• Paul George, Reggie Jackson, and Isaiah Hartenstein are out for the Clippers. Marcus Morris is listed as questionable.
• Jamal Murray and Michael Porter remain out for the Nuggets. JaMychal Green is listed as questionable.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Below are three noteworthy stats to assist you in starting your NBA DFS research for December 26th, 2021.

This season with Paul George, Reggie Jackson, and Isaiah Hartenstein off the floor, Luke Kennard has posted a 24.6% usage rate.

With two of the higher-usage guards out of the lineup, Kennard takes on a leadership role on the offensive end by default. His 24.6% usage rate is second on the team to Marcus Morris (28.0%), but he also adds a 30.8% usage rate and 0.91 DraftKings points per minute. Assuming he gets a full 30-35-min workload, he’s primed to be one of the more productive mid-tier plays on the slate.

Brandon Ingram sees a +3.3% bump in usage rate with both Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jonas Valanciunas off the floor this season.

With these two out on Sunday, Ingram is slated for a massive role, sporting a 33.9% usage rate in this scenario. The absence of these two also opens up a nice number of peripherals, as Ingram sees a boost to a 20.8% assist rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. In a rather forgotten price range, Ingram stands out as a stellar tournament option on Sunday.

In that same scenario, Willy Hernangomez has posted a team-high 22.2% rebounding rate.

Hernangomez got the start in the absence of Valanciunas last game and given the massive rebounding rate, was able to get there while shooting only 1-11 from the field. Understanding that the points are essentially a cherry on top of any production he gives us on the glass, Hernangomez’s ceiling is far greater than we saw on the last slate. With a 1.14 DraftKings-point-per-minute rate, Hernangomez is an elite value at $4,900.

NBA Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Below are some of the top value plays on Sunday’s slate on DraftKings, pulled from the LineupEDGE optimizer at the time of writing (with their points-per-dollar included). For the rest of the preferred value plays, visit FTNDaily’s cheat sheets.

1. Dalano Banton (9.85x)
2. Tremont Waters (8.32x)
3. Willy Hernangomez (7.57x)
4. Yuta Watanabe (7.03x)
5. Svi Mykhailiuk (6.74x)

For the rest of the top value plays on the slate, check out the Cheat Sheets for our analysts’ exposures and the NBA Optimizer for the best point-per-dollar plays.

Quick Look at Tonight’s NBA Slate | NBA DFS First Look

The top-priced players on the NBA DFS slate at hand are listed below for DraftKings, FanDuel, and SuperDraft. For SuperDraft, these are going to be the players without scoring multipliers (if any) or those with the lowest multipliers.

Top DraftKings NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($12,100)
2. Joel Embiid ($11,900)
3. Domantas Sabonis ($10,500)
4. Dejounte Murray ($10,400)
5. Zach LaVine ($10,200)

Top FanDuel NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic ($11,200)
2. Joel Embiid ($10,900)
3. Dejounte Murray ($10,000)
4. DeMar DeRozan ($8,900)
5. Ja Morant ($8,800)

Top SuperDraft NBA DFS Plays | NBA DFS First Look

1. Nikola Jokic (1x)
2. Joel Embiid (1x)
3. Dejounte Murray (1.1x)
4. Domantas Sabonis (1.15x)
5. DeMar DeRozan (1.15x)

With Sunday’s slate covered, let’s take a look back at who had success on Saturday’s slate and how we can apply that to improve our process going forward.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

Below is a summary of how the slate last night went on FanDuel and DraftKings. One great feature of the FTNDaily NBA optimizer is the ability to backtest the slates and study the results to apply for future slates, exactly what we will do here. The highest overall scoring player from each site is bolded in the lineup.

DraftKings GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the optimal lineup on DraftKings from last night:

• PG: Malik Monk (32.00)
• SG: Patty Mills (53.00)
• SF: LeBron James (68.75)
• PF: Otto Porter Jr. (34.5)
• C: Nicolas Claxton (31.00)
• G: Payton Pritchard (35.75)
• F: Carmelo Anthony (48.25)
• UTIL: James Harden (74.00)

Total: 377.25

FanDuel GPP Results | NBA DFS First Look

Below is the winning lineup from FanDuel’s $200k Shot ($40k to first) last night:

• PG: Patty Mills (49.9)
• PG: James Harden (71.00)
• SG: Bruce Brown (31.2)
• SG: Delon Wright (38.8)
• SF: Otto Porter (33.7)
• SF: Carmelo Anthony (49.2)
• PF: Robert Williams (37.8)
• PF: LeBron James (69.3)
• C: Draymond Green (46.6)

Total: 427.1

As it is every Christmas, the ownership on this slate was incredibly condensed. Between having only five games on the slate and COVID limiting rotations, the public’s attention was all in the same place. Both LeBron James and James Harden were over 40% owned in the main GPPs, finishing as the top two scorers on the slate. The surprises came from the value well, as it was the Lakers, not the chalky Hawks, that provided salary relief with the massive per-dollar production that we had hoped for.