NBA DFS Preview – First Look (12/21)

Tuesday’s five-game NBA DFS slate once again features plenty of news and value should be pretty easy to find for the foreseeable future. Keep an eye on news throughout the day, while also taking advantage of the amazing FTN NBA Optimizer. 

NBA Vegas Data for December 21 | NBA DFS First Look

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

IND -2.5, total: 208.5
Pace: IND (19th), MIA (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jimmy Butler will miss the 11th game out of his last 12 with a back injury. Meanwhile, Tyler Herro, who has missed three consecutive games with a quad injury, is listed as questionable.
• P.J. Tucker, who has been logging huge minutes as of late, has been ruled out.

Detroit Pistons @ New York Knicks

NYK -7.5, total: 207
Pace: DET (10th), NYK (26th)

Situations to monitor:

• New York could remain short-handed here, as RJ Barrett, Obi Toppin, Kevin Knox, Immanuel Quickley and Miles McBride are all in the health and safety protocols. Meanwhile, Derrick Rose is expected to be a game-time decision with an ankle injury. Kemba Walker returned to the rotation last game, logging 37 minutes in a start at point guard.

Portland Trail Blazers @ New Orleans Pelicans

NOP -1, total: 219
Pace: POR (11th), NOP (15th)

Situations to monitor:

• Damian Lillard is dealing with hamstring tightness and is listed as questionable for this game.

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks

MIN -1, total: 212.5
Pace: MIN (3rd), DAL (29th)

Situations to monitor:

• Luka Doncic continues to deal with an ankle injury and will not return to the lineup Tuesday. Meanwhile, Kristaps Porzingis is questionable with a toe injury, while Maxi Kleber is in the league’s health and safety protocols.
• For Minnesota, Anthony Edwards has been in the health and safety protocols and will remain out, along with Jarred Vanderbilt and Patrick Beverley.

Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Lakers

PHX -7.5, total: 222.5
Pace: PHX (2nd), LAL (1st)

Situations to monitor:

• Anthony Davis will miss a few weeks with a sprained MCL, while the Lakers will also be without Talen Horton-Tucker, Dwight Howard, Malik Monk, Avery Bradley and Kent Bazemore.

Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look

Kemba Walker posted a 30.1% usage rate during New York’s last game

With New York extremely depleted, Walker, who hadn’t played since the end of November, returned to the rotation against the Celtics Saturday. He started at point guard and logged 37 minutes, scoring 29 points to go along with six rebounds and three assists. Every player who has been in the health and safety protocols for this team will remain out, while Derrick Rose will be a game-time decision with an ankle injury. If he once again sits, expect Walker to remain in the starting lineup. He posted a usage rate north of 30% last game and possessed the ball for a healthy 6.2 minutes. A matchup against a bad Detroit team that allows the most points per possession to opposing ball handlers out of the pick-and-roll this season (0.96) is very intriguing. 

Omer Yurtseven is sporting a 34% rebounding rate with Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo off the floor this season

Yurtseven is a very intriguing value play Tuesday. We know Miami will remain without Butler and Adebayo, but now P.J. Tucker is out, which is very impactful given the fact that he’s been logging massive minutes as of late, while also playing some time at center. Yurtseven has seen an uptick in minutes in Adebayo’s absence, averaging 15.4 minutes per game over his last five outings. Against a Pacers frontcourt with a ton of size, Miami might need 20-plus minutes from Yurtseven, as he and Dewayne Dedmon should split the center minutes. And with Butler and Adebayo off the floor this season, Yurtseven is sporting a 34% rebounding rate, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. 

Karl-Anthony Towns sees a 5.3% bump in usage rate with Anthony Edwards off the floor

Edwards remains in the league’s health and safety protocols, while Patrick Beverley and Jarred Vanderbilt join him. Towns’ usage rate was hovering around 30% in Minnesota’s last game against the Lakers and with Edwards off the floor on the season, his usage rate climbs by over five percent, giving him a team-high 33.4% usage rate in the split. He is also averaging a gaudy 1.66 fantasy points per minute with Edwards off the floor and a matchup against a potentially short-handed Dallas frontcourt is nothing to fear.

Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look

Omer Yurtseven vs. IND — Yurtseven has seen an uptick in minutes in Adebayo’s absence, averaging 15.4 minutes per game over his last five outings. Against a Pacers frontcourt with a ton of size, Miami might need 20-plus minutes from Yurtseven, as he and Dewayne Dedmon should split the center minutes. And with Butler and Adebayo off the floor this season, Yurtseven is sporting a 34% rebounding rate, while averaging just over a fantasy point per minute. 

Isaiah Thomas vs. PHX — Thomas started for Los Angeles last game, logging 32 minutes. Even with Anthony Davis out, Thomas’ usage isn’t amazing, as he is actually spotting up alongside LeBron James and Russell Westbrook. However, the shot volume should be solid, and he has upside, especially if he remains in the starting lineup.

Note: If Damian Lillard (hamstring) is ruled out, Anfernee Simons becomes the clear top value play of the slate.

Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look

DraftKings optimal lineup

Coby White (34.75)
Tyrese Haliburton (51.5)
Alfonzo McKinnie (27.75)
Otto Porter (31.25)
Rudy Gobert (55.75)
Dejounte Murray (70.5)
Draymond Green (53.75)
Jakob Poeltl (48.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Lonzo Ball (53.0)
Dejounte Murray (67.9)
Josh Giddey (41.5)
Tyrese Haliburton (49.3)
Alfonzo McKinnie (26.5)
Otto Porter (34.0)
Jalen McDaniels (28.0)
Draymond Green (51.2)
Joel Embiid (73.5)

It isn’t too surprising to see Tyrese Haliburton in both optimal lineups, as he has been fantastic in the absence of De’Aaron Fox. In fact, over the last three games (all without Fox), Haliburton is averaging an absurd 106.3 touches per game, the second-most in the NBA during that span. Meanwhile, we saw Otto Porter post a solid game with the Golden State wings out of the lineup, as he scored 12 points to go along with five rebounds, two assists and four blocks in 29 minutes.