NBA DFS Preview – First Look (11/18)

A six-game slate is honestly the sweet spot for NBA DFS, and that is the exact slate we have Thursday. Make sure to pair all of the content with the amazing NBA Optimizer to get the best edge possible when setting your lineups.

NBA Vegas Data for Nov. 18 | NBA DFS First Look

Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

GSW -8, total: 205
Pace: GSW (3rd), CLE (27th)

Situations to monitor:

• The Cavaliers will remain very short-handed, as Collin Sexton, Evan Mobley and Lauri Markkanen won’t play, though Kevin Love is available off the bench. Meanwhile, Jarrett Allen, who has been dealing with an illness, is questionable.
• For Golden State, Steph Curry is questionable with a hip contusion but the line in this game suggests he’ll play.

Washington Wizards @ Miami Heat

MIA -6.5, total: 206.5
Pace: WAS (27th), MIA (25th)

Situations to monitor:

• Bam Adebayo has missed the last two games with a knee injury, so we’ll see if he returns to the lineup Thursday.
• Meanwhile, Spencer Dinwiddie is not expected to play due to injury management.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

LAC -1, total: 221
Pace: LAC (2nd), MEM (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Nicolas Batum was dealing with Achilles soreness last game, limiting him to just 13 minutes. He’s listed as doubtful, while Terence Man is questionable with an ankle injury.

San Antonio Spurs @ Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN -2, total: 219.5
Pace: SAS (1st), MIN (11th)

Situations to monitor:

• Jakob Poeltl has been ruled out again, as the San Antonio center continues to work his way back into game shape.

Philadelphia 76ers @ Denver Nuggets

DEN -7.5, total: 208
Pace: PHI (15th), DEN (16th)

Situations to monitor:

• Joel Embiid will remain out for Philadelphia, along with Ben Simmons.
• For Denver, Will Barton is listed as doubtful with a back injury. With Michael Porter already sidelined, Aaron Gordon and Austin Rivers — who started the last two games — will receive bumps.

Toronto Raptors @ Utah Jazz

UTA -9.5, total: 214.5
Pace: TOR (12th), UTA (8th)

Situations to monitor:

• OG Anunoby is questionable with a hip injury.

Stats to Know

Bradley Beal is sporting a 34.2% usage rate with Spencer Dinwiddie off the floor

With this being the second end of a back-to-back, Dinwiddie is expected to sit for Washington, which creates even more upside for Beal. His usage rate skyrockets to 34.2% with Dinwiddie off the floor this season, while Beal is also averaging 1.26 fantasy points per minute and is sporting a healthy 18% assist rate in the split. A matchup against a very good Miami defense isn’t exactly the best in the league but Beal’s metrics are very difficult to ignore, while we know he can go off on any given slate.

D’Angelo Russell is averaging 2.0 points per game off handoffs this season

That is good for the 12th in basketball, while Russell is shooting a healthy 45% off the play type. Russell has remained in the mid-range all year long and I’ve really liked his price tag. That continues Thursday, especially against a Spurs team that quietly leads the league in pace all of a sudden. San Antonio is also coughing up the sixth-highest field goal percentage off handoffs this season (45.8%), as well as the fifth-most points per possession off the play type (1.06). The Spurs are also allowing the sixth-most real points (24.48) per game to opposing point guards on the season.

Tyrese Maxey is averaging 88.3 touches per game over his last seven contests

During that seven-game stretch, Maxey’s 88.3 touches per game are the seventh most in the NBA, as he continues to take on a much larger role with Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons inactive for Philadelphia. Maxey is also averaging a healthy 7.1 minutes of possession per game during that span and outside of blowouts, Maxey is playing massive minutes, sometimes upwards of 40-plus, which is insane at this point of the regular season. He is also averaging 9.4 points per game off drives over his last seven games, which is favorable for him against a Denver team that really lacks elite rim protection. They are surrendering the fourth-highest field goal percentage from within six feet of the basket so far this season (62.8%). 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

Patrick Beverley (38.5)
Luguentz Dort (50.5)
Talen Horton-Tucker (52.0)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (66.25)
Larry Nance (39.75)
Darius Garland (45.25)
Jimmy Butler (62.5)
Alex Caruso (47.5)

FanDuel optimal lineup

Darius Garland (45.0)
Alex Caruso (48.5)
Luguentz Dort (48.6)
Jimmy Butler (58.0)
Larry Nance (41.3)
Talen Horton-Tucker (49.9)
Kristaps Porzingis (49.1)
Giannis Antetokounmpo (64.3)
Daniel Gafford (40.3)

Talen Horton-Tucker has now put together consecutive huge games for the Lakers, who remain without LeBron James. Meanwhile, Jimmy Butler was a popular option with both Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo sidelined for Miami, but Lowry will be back Thursday, and Adebayo could be as well. It was also nice to see Darius Garland take 26 field goals with the Cavaliers still so short-handed.