NBA DFS Preview – First Look (10/31)

Sunday is an extremely busy day. Halloween, NFL Sunday and a four-game main NBA slate? Say no more. While you are preparing for football, take an early look at Sunday’s main slate on the hardwood. 

Consensus Vegas odds are derived from FTNBets Vegas Odds Board.

Portland Trail Blazers @ Charlotte Hornets

POR -1, total: 229.5

Pace: POR (1st), CHA (4th)

Situations to monitor:

• Terry Rozier has missed the last four games with an ankle injury but is probable to return on Sunday.

Utah Jazz @ Milwaukee Bucks

UTA -1, total: 223

Pace: UTA (21st), MIL (9th)

Situations to monitor:

• Mike Conley was sidelined on Saturday for the Jazz, but because it was a maintenance issue I fully expect him to be back in the lineup on Sunday.
   
• The Bucks have been without Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo, and it seems unlikely that they play on Sunday. Bobby Portis, however, will be back.

Detroit Pistons @ Brooklyn Nets

BKN -12.5, total: 215

Pace: DET (28th), BKN (7th)

Situations to monitor:

• Brooklyn’s frontcourt will be without both Paul Millsap and Nicolas Claxton on Sunday. LaMarcus Aldridge should see a bump in minutes.

Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers

LAL -12, total: 222

Pace: HOU (2nd), LAL (2nd)

Situations to monitor:

• LeBron James (ankle) is questionable, while Anthony Davis (knee) is probable. The Lakers will be without Kendrick Nunn and possibly Wayne Ellington. 
   
• The Rockets could have Kevin Porter Jr. in the lineup on Sunday, though he didn’t practice much on Saturday and is questionable.

Five Stats to Know

Charlotte is allowing the highest field goal percentage at the rim in the NBA (73.8%)

The Hornets defensive frontcourt was one to attack all of last season. That appears to be the case again here in 2021, as no team is coughing up a higher field goal percentage at the rim than Charlotte (73.8%). That bodes extremely well for Jusuf Nurkic, as 79% of his field goal attempts this season have come from within four feet of the basket, good for the sixth-highest rate in the NBA. His minutes have been down as of late due to a handful of blowouts but in a game with this a close spread, Nurkic should be able to log at least 30 minutes. That’s more than enough in this tremendous matchup.

Miles Bridges is averaging 7.5 spot-up points per game this season

That is the third-highest mark in basketball, as Miles Bridges continues to fully break out here in 2021, averaging 25.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per game. Sure, Terry Rozier is expected to return but I don’t see how Charlotte goes away from Bridges right now. This is a tremendous matchup too, as Portland leads the league in pace, while also allowing the most points per game to opposing spot-up shooters (35.0). They are also allowing the fifth-most points per possession off the play type (1.07), as well as the second-highest frequency rate (29.1%). Bridges still stands out as a very strong play tonight, despite the expected return of Rozier.

CJ McCollum leads the Blazers with a 30.8% usage rate

That’s just ahead of Damian Lillard (29.5%). CJ McCollum is also averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute, behind only Nurkic. Lillard has gotten off to a bit of a slow start this season, while McCollum is averaging just over 24 points per game, while shooting about 45% from both the field and beyond the arc. He’s attempted at least 18 field goals in all but one game so far this season and in the one game he didn’t reach that mark, McCollum still took a healthy 16 shots. 

Grayson Allen has attempted exactly 11 field goals in five straight games

This isn’t exactly an advanced stat, but I found it fascinating so leave me alone. Grayson Allen has been a very, very consistent value option to start the season, scoring at least 21 fantasy points in all but one game. He continues to play 30-32 minutes every game, as Milwaukee remains without Jrue Holiday and Donte DiVincenzo in their backcourt. Allen is particularly viable on DraftKings as you get the bonus for three-pointers, and Allen has attempted at least eight triples in every game this year. 

LaMarcus Aldridge is sporting a 29% rebounding rate with Nicolas Claxton and Paul Millsap off the floor

Both Claxton and Millsap have been ruled out for Sunday’s game, leaving Brooklyn’s frontcourt pretty short-handed. Aldridge is coming off his best game of the season, scoring 34.5 fantasy points in 28 minutes against the Pacers and he looks primed to log notable minutes again. Aldridge’s rebounding rate jumps to a strong 29% mark with both Claxton and Millsap off the floor. He also sports a 23% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute in the split. 

Last Night’s GPP Performances

DraftKings optimal lineup

• Trae Young (31.0)
• Cedi Osman (32.25)
• RJ Barrett (56.5)
• Jarred Vanderbilt (15)
• Myles Turner (41.75)
• De’Anthony Melton (40.25)
• Kelly Olynyk (41.75)
• Nikola Jokic (67.75)

FanDuel optimal lineup

• Kemba Walker (40.3)
• De’Anthony Melton (41.1)
• Donovan Mitchell (44.4)
• Dejounte Murray (49.5)
• Matisse Thybulle (37.6)
• RJ Barrett (52.6)
• Myles Turner (43.2)
• Kelly Olynyk (45)
• Nikola Jokic (64.3)

RJ Barrett had a rare ceiling game in DFS, which helped him land in the optimal lineup on both main sites. Kelly Olynyk also had a very good game and was not very popular at all, helping propel some GPP lineups up the board. And of course, Donovan Mitchell was fairly popular with Mike Conley out for the Jazz and while he didn’t have an amazing game, roughly 45 fantasy points was certainly nothing to scoff at.