Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Welcome to 2022. The new year kicks off with a solid DFS slate of NBA games Saturday. At the moment, there isn’t an insane amount of news but that can obviously change in an instant so be sure to pay attention throughout the day, while also checking out the FTN NBA Optimizer.
NBA Vegas Data for January 1 | NBA DFS First Look
San Antonio Spurs @ Detroit Pistons
SAS -7, total: 223.5
Pace: SAS (4th), DET (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- Dejounte Murray remains in the health and safety protocols for the Spurs.
- The Pistons could get Cade Cunningham back for this game, while Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Saben Lee, Cory Joseph and Frank Jackson are questionable.
Chicago Bulls @ Washington Wizards
CHI -2, total: 218
Pace: CHI (16th), WAS (26th)
Situations to monitor:
- Spencer Dinwiddie has entered the health and safety protocols, joining Montrezl Harrell.
- Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso will remain sidelined for the Bulls.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets
BKN -12, total: 218
Pace: LAC (13th), BKN (7th)
Situations to monitor:
- Paul George remains out for the Clippers, while Ivica Zubac has entered the health and safety protocols.
Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets
DEN -7, total: 223.5
Pace: DEN (24th), HOU (3rd)
Situations to monitor:
- Aaron Gordon is once again questionable with a hamstring injury.
- For the Rockets, Alperen Sengun left Friday’s game with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable for Saturday.
Golden State Warriors @ Utah Jazz
UTA -5, total: 221
Pace: GSW (13th), UTA (10th)
Situations to monitor:
- Draymond Green remains out for the Warriors
- Mike Conley rested Friday but should be back in the lineup for this game.
Stats to Know | NBA DFS First Look
Serge Ibaka is averaging 1.03 fantasy points per minute with both Paul George and Ivica Zubac off the floor
The Clippers won’t have George back in their lineup for a while, and now Zubac has entered the league’s health and safety protocols. And with Isaiah Hartenstein (ankle) without a timetable for return, Ibaka is going to step into a larger role and should be able to play minutes in the mid-20s. And considering he is averaging 1.03 fantasy points per minute with both George and Zubac off the floor this season, Ibaka doesn’t have to play massive minutes to be worth a look. He is also sporting a 24.2% usage rate and 27% rebounding rate with both players off the court on the year.
Nikola Vucevic is averaging 6.3 points per game as the roll man out of the pick and roll this season.
No player in the NBA is averaging more points per game off the play type this season, which sets him up nicely in a matchup against the Wizards. Washington is coughing up 9.1 points per game to the roll man out of the pick and roll on the year, good for the third-most in basketball, while also allowing the fourth-highest field goal percentage off the play type (56.1%). Washington also ranks 24th against rebounders, per FTN’s Advanced DVP tool.
Value Plays | NBA DFS First Look
Serge Ibaka vs. BKN — Ibaka is averaging 1.03 FPPM with Paul George and Ivica Zubac off the floor this season, while Brooklyn’s interior defense can be exploited.
Royce O’Neale vs. GSW — The production hasn’t been amazing, but O’Neale continues to start and log 30-33 minutes per game. He’s only $3,500 on DraftKings.
Last Night’s GPP Performances | NBA DFS First Look
DraftKings optimal lineup
Tyus Jones (34.0)
Ben McLemore (36.0)
Bojan Bogdanovic (42.5)
Kevin Love (59.25)
Pascal Siakam (67.75)
Kyle Guy (35.0)
LeBron James (78.5)
Steven Adams (37.75)
FanDuel optimal lineup
Tyus Jones (34.8)
Donovan Mitchell (53.7)
Ben McLemore (32.8)
Kyle Guy (34.8)
RJ Barrett (40.9)
LeBron James (77.8)
Kevin Love (53.2)
Pascal Siakam (67.3)
Clint Capela (63.6)
Kevin Love put together a throwback performance to bring in 2022, scoring 35 points while adding 11 rebounds. He came off the bench with Jarrett Allen back, but he’s been an insanely efficient per-minute producer all season long. Meanwhile, after a two-game absence, Donovan Mitchell returned to the Utah lineup and posted a strong stat line of 39 points, six rebounds and five assists.
